Support Long-term Thinking
Support Long-term Thinking

Harry Potter and the Prophecy of Prediction Markets

by Kevin Kelly on July 20th, 02007

Prediction markets can use the signals in both greed and the wisdom of the crowds to forecast. Some people are using their coin to vote for the final end of Harry Potter. As this graph from NewsFutures shows, there’s a 75% chance he’ll live.


© NewsFutures

Come back tomorrow to see how accurate this short term prediction has been.

READ NEXT
The Future Will Have to Wait
Alexander Rose - Twitter: @zander
Psychology of long-term thinking
Alexander Rose - Twitter: @zander