Long Bets in 02010

Posted on Thursday, December 31st, 02009 by Alexander Rose - Twitter: @zander
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This year there are several Long Bets and Predictions up for adjudication.  We will be contacting these bettors this year to ask them to make a self assessment of the bet, if the parties cannot come to an agreement we will make a determination.  Some wont be decided officially until the end of the year, but we may have passed the tipping point on some of these already.

We welcome your input as comments on this thread…
A profitable video-on-demand service aimed at consumers will offer 10,000 titles to 5 million subscribers by 2010.

The U.S Department of Transportation Bureau of Transportation Statistics (www.bts.gov) will report a lower number of total highway vehicle miles traveled in 2010 than in 2005.

Predictions:  While we dont officially make adjudications on predictions, they are posted for the world the judge.  Tell us what you think.

By 2010 more than 50 percent of books worldwide will be read on digital devices rather than in print form.

Within 5 years all power plants will be converted to full-spectrum laser-fired—all oil/gas/coal/nuclear power plants will be obsolete and retired.

Within the next 5 years, Google employees will become dissatisfied, and kick-start a new wave of new technology and prosperity in Silicon Valley.

The world will not reach ‘Peak Oil’ by 2010.

There will be a quantum computer with over 100 qubits of processing capability sold either as a hardware system or whose use is made available as a commercial service by Dec 31, 2010

By 2010, the use of dial-up modems will represent less than 5 percent of all Internet access (represented as a percentage of all households) in the United States.

The U.S. will not pull all of its troops out of Iraq until the 10 largest corporations in the U.S. use their influence to make it happen. I don’t see this as a possibility until after Nov. 9, 2010 the next mid-term elections.

  • John L

    There’s a problem with setting a Peak Oil date. We won’t know the date until some years after the peak, looking back. May need 5-10 years to know with certainty (much like when the pre-Alaska U.S. peak was reached in 1970s – we didn’t recognize it until some years later.)

    There is pretty good evidence that we have passed peak already, but the global economic downturn has softened the blow a bit.. for now. Myriad variables at play here, including the speed at which alternative energies can ramp up.

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  • James

    The U.S. will never pull all of its troops out of Iraq. PERIOD.
    Once the Rothschild Empire has entered a country and gained control of the Banks, they never leave.
    Full Spectrum Dominance.

  • Rocinante Six

    The Long Now Foundation should also record conspiracy theories, so that future generations can see how ours are just as laughable as the conspiracy theories of the 18th and 19th centuries are to us…

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