Jesse Schell Launches The Crystal Ball Society

Posted on Wednesday, June 22nd, 02011 by Bryan Campen - Twitter: @bryancampen
link Categories: Futures, Long Term Thinking, Seminars   chat 0 Comments

Jesse Schell interviews gaming legend Bob Bates, who predicts that we will be having emotional vocal conversations with game characters by 2021.

There’s really no one more fun to watch predict the future than Jesse Schell,  so it’s our good fortune that he just launched The Crystal Ball Society as a space to place predictions on the future.

(From his SALT talk): “…The prediction threshold is creeping in, it’s made a lot of people give up on prediction. They’ve become future blind. That’s ridiculous because if you put some energy into it you can make some predictions about the future. *You can look into your crystal ball and you can figure it out.* But it takes practice… If you practice predicting you will get better and you’re going to get feedback fast. But if you’re future blind and you don’t bother, you’re going to continue to suck at predicting the future.”

Practice sucking less by sending predictions here: crystalballsociety[at]gmail{dot}com

Also of note, an exceptionally relevant post on 2019 Unthinkables by board member Kevin Kelly, that made me daydream this afternoon about an Amazon Bookstore by 2015.

Check out lots more debatably-thinkables at Long Bets.

  • gwern0

    > But it takes practice… If you practice predicting you will get better and you’re going to get feedback fast.

    And that's the problem, predicting generally doesn't give fast feedback – intrinsically, you can't learn very much from short-term predictions because either there's serious randomness involved such that it takes hundreds or thousands (or hundreds of thousands in the case of poker) of predictions to begin to improve, or the predictions are badly over-determined by available information.

    The rewards are very gradual and long term.

    And while I like Long Bets a lot, forcing people to put up money has kept real-money prediction markets pretty small in both participants and volume; and how much more so when all proceeds go to charity? No wonder that half a decade or more later, there's only a few hundred money-bets going, even with prominent participants like Warren Buffett.

    Non-money markets or prediction registries can work in the higher volumes necessary for learning to predict better. Single-handedly on I can make 5 or 10 times the number of predictions on all of Long Bets (… Where will I learn & improve more, Long Bets or PredictionBook?

  • telecocoa

    Found via Mitch Kapor: @mkapor: Today's real life is yesterday's science fiction

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