Predicting the future is hard.
Long Bets is a project by The Long Now Foundation that is testing how hard it really is, and maybe making us just a little bit better at it. The site allows users to post Predictions of at least two years’ duration. Should someone disagree with the likelihood of a prediction, they are welcome to Challenge it and produce a Bet. Real money is put on the line and eventually goes to a charity nominated by the winner.
We’ve recently made judgments on several Bets and wanted to review the outcomes:
- Russian software industry fails to take global lead – Long Bet 5
- First 5-year decline in US vehicle miles traveled since WWII – Long Bet 197
- US Presidential election process largely unchanged in 02012 – Long Bet 291
We’re also starting a Facebook Page for making and discussing predictions about the future.