http://blog.longnow.org/2007/02/16/non-singularity-scenarios-vernor-vinge-talk/ The Official Weblog of The Long Now Foundation and Friends Sun, 12 Oct 2008 07:50:23 +0000 http://wordpress.org/?v=2.2.3 http://blog.longnow.org/2007/02/16/non-singularity-scenarios-vernor-vinge-talk/#comment-4811 Dean Loomis Fri, 11 Jul 2008 06:29:51 +0000 http://blog.longnow.org/2007/02/16/non-singularity-scenarios-vernor-vinge-talk/#comment-4811 Almost a year later, Long Now Seminar speaker Nassim Taleb pointed out that the future has always been profoundly unknowable, i.e. that social and economic systems are in a continuous state of near singularity. It's only the fallacious familiarity of hindsight that leads to the belief that future singularities will be oxymoronically more unique than past singularities. Science fiction writer William Gibson has observed that the arrival of the future does not change much of the state of the lived environment, a fact that Zen Buddhist masters have been teaching for centuries. Almost a year later, Long Now Seminar speaker Nassim Taleb pointed out that the future has always been profoundly unknowable, i.e. that social and economic systems are in a continuous state of near singularity. It’s only the fallacious familiarity of hindsight that leads to the belief that future singularities will be oxymoronically more unique than past singularities. Science fiction writer William Gibson has observed that the arrival of the future does not change much of the state of the lived environment, a fact that Zen Buddhist masters have been teaching for centuries.

]]> http://blog.longnow.org/2007/02/16/non-singularity-scenarios-vernor-vinge-talk/#comment-3712 CO4E Mon, 17 Mar 2008 08:08:09 +0000 http://blog.longnow.org/2007/02/16/non-singularity-scenarios-vernor-vinge-talk/#comment-3712 We are running out of TAP, Technologically Augmented Perception. E=MC2 makes no claim about matter. We must try and grasp mathematical equations as events rather then relationships. As Events, irrational numbers are useless. We are running out of TAP, Technologically Augmented Perception.
E=MC2 makes no claim about matter.
We must try and grasp mathematical equations as events rather then relationships.
As Events, irrational numbers are useless.

]]> http://blog.longnow.org/2007/02/16/non-singularity-scenarios-vernor-vinge-talk/#comment-2683 Long Views » Blog Archive » The shrinking literary future Tue, 02 Oct 2007 19:02:49 +0000 http://blog.longnow.org/2007/02/16/non-singularity-scenarios-vernor-vinge-talk/#comment-2683 [...] the near present (or even past in Stephenson’s case).  But since meeting Vernor Vinge at one of our lectures, I have been reading his amazing work and noticing the same trend.  I started with his most recent [...] […] the near present (or even past in Stephenson’s case).  But since meeting Vernor Vinge at one of our lectures, I have been reading his amazing work and noticing the same trend.  I started with his most recent […]

]]> http://blog.longnow.org/2007/02/16/non-singularity-scenarios-vernor-vinge-talk/#comment-3 Richard Rockefeller (via Stewart Brand Fri, 02 Mar 2007 04:11:50 +0000 http://blog.longnow.org/2007/02/16/non-singularity-scenarios-vernor-vinge-talk/#comment-3 This is appetite whetting, Stewart - thanks. One minor point: planes won't run into each other as a result of large automation projects failing catastrophically, because TCAS (terminal collision avoidance systems) are becoming ubiquitous as well as simpler and more reliable. If we could clear the bureaucracy, we shouldn't need any sort of large computers to maintain separation - we'll do it much as we avoid running into other pedestrians in the street - see and avoid, that is, only better. Even the TCAS on my little plane allows me to see all traffic within a 12 mile radius. The fancier systems not only see, but plot the trajectories of all planes within a 25 mile radius and suggest routes around any potentially conflicting traffic. There's actually little need for centralized air traffic control anymore, and certainly won't within 10 years or so. This is appetite whetting, Stewart - thanks. One minor point: planes won’t run into each other as a result of large automation projects failing catastrophically, because TCAS (terminal collision avoidance systems) are becoming ubiquitous as well as simpler and more reliable. If we could clear the bureaucracy, we shouldn’t need any sort of large computers to maintain separation - we’ll do it much as we avoid running into other pedestrians in the street - see and avoid, that is, only better. Even the TCAS on my little plane allows me to see all traffic within a 12 mile radius. The fancier systems not only see, but plot the trajectories of all planes within a 25 mile radius and suggest routes around any potentially conflicting traffic. There’s actually little need for centralized air traffic control anymore, and certainly won’t within 10 years or so.

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