Comments on: Prediction Market as weather forecaster http://blog.longnow.org/2007/03/22/prediction-market-as-weather-forecaster/ The Official Weblog of The Long Now Foundation and Friends Thu, 21 Aug 2008 20:15:49 +0000 http://wordpress.org/?v=2.2.3 By: zenbullets http://blog.longnow.org/2007/03/22/prediction-market-as-weather-forecaster/#comment-21 zenbullets Wed, 25 Apr 2007 09:22:11 +0000 http://blog.longnow.org/2007/03/22/prediction-market-as-weather-forecaster/#comment-21 This phenomenon is in line with James Suroweicki's 'Wisdom of Crowds' Theory - the idea that a collection of interested non-experts can collectively make better, and more accurate, decisions than experts on a subject. More info and examples <a href="http://www.randomhouse.com/features/wisdomofcrowds/excerpt.html" rel="nofollow">here</a>, <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Wisdom_of_Crowds" rel="nofollow">here</a> and <a href="http://zenbullets.com/blog/?p=59" rel="nofollow">here</a>. But isn't there also an irony here - using one chaotic system (the market) to predict another chaotic system (the weather)? This phenomenon is in line with James Suroweicki’s ‘Wisdom of Crowds’ Theory - the idea that a collection of interested non-experts can collectively make better, and more accurate, decisions than experts on a subject.

More info and examples here, here and here.

But isn’t there also an irony here - using one chaotic system (the market) to predict another chaotic system (the weather)?

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