http://blog.longnow.org/2007/07/06/catastrophe-a-good-bet/ The Official Weblog of The Long Now Foundation and Friends Tue, 09 Mar 2010 09:54:37 -0800 http://wordpress.org/?v=2.8.4 hourly 1 http://blog.longnow.org/2007/07/06/catastrophe-a-good-bet/comment-page-1/#comment-2112 Stephanie Gerson Tue, 31 Jul 2007 07:26:28 +0000 http://blog.longnow.org/2007/07/06/catastrophe-a-good-bet/#comment-2112 "What can be measured can be bet on." Agreed. But don't some individuals'/institutions' measurements matter more than others'? For example, don't former chairman of the Fed Alan Greenspan's measurements matter, and therefore influence the outcome of his predictions, more than Princeton economics professor Paul Krugman's? Doesn't Greenspan have more power to create self-fulfilling prophecies than Krugman? I.e. what if *power* were introduced into prediction markets? “What can be measured can be bet on.” Agreed. But don’t some individuals’/institutions’ measurements matter more than others’? For example, don’t former chairman of the Fed Alan Greenspan’s measurements matter, and therefore influence the outcome of his predictions, more than Princeton economics professor Paul Krugman’s? Doesn’t Greenspan have more power to create self-fulfilling prophecies than Krugman? I.e. what if *power* were introduced into prediction markets?

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