Comments on: The Future of Futurology http://blog.longnow.org/2007/12/31/the-future-of-futurology/ The Official Weblog of The Long Now Foundation and Friends Sun, 23 Nov 2008 16:51:56 +0000 http://wordpress.org/?v=2.2.3 By: Daniel O'Donnell http://blog.longnow.org/2007/12/31/the-future-of-futurology/#comment-3218 Daniel O'Donnell Wed, 02 Jan 2008 02:35:57 +0000 http://blog.longnow.org/2007/12/31/the-future-of-futurology/#comment-3218 I generally consider most content in The Economist with considerable reservation, which I think is reasonable given their own track record in prediction (e.g. globalization, unrestricted markets, etc.). In this case they've made it fairly easy for themselves. They treat Faith Popcorn with alacrity, but she's not usually considered to be in the same league as Alvin Toffler and others. They insist on sticking with their mantra that the market is omniscient and all-knowing, "The most heeded futurists these days are not individuals, but prediction markets", even if it stumbles a little from time to time, "But after the market panic of 2007 more humility is to be expected there too." I prefer to go with William Gibson's assessment of predicting the future, since he was remarkably accurate in Neuromancer (1984). In an interview in Salon.com in August 2007, in parallel with the publication of his new book, he says: --begin quote-- "...our present has become so unutterably brief and ever-changing that we have no ground upon which we can stand and project a future historical arc as H.G. Wells and Robert Heinlein were able to. The short form of that is, none of us know what the hell is going to happen next. If I'd gone into a publisher's office in 1981 and pitched a novel set in a world with a lethal, sexually transmitted virus that was going to take down huge numbers of human beings, and in that same world, it was determined that we'd completely thrown the climate of the planet out of whack -- not only would they not have bothered but they probably would have called security. No one except possibly the late John Brunner, in his brilliant novel "The Sheep Look Up," has ever described anything in science fiction that is remotely like the reality of 2007 as we know it." --end quote-- Actually, I think it is the artists like Gibson and Eno who have the best idea of the future, though admittedly I haven't done an analytical study of the contrasts and comparisons between the classes (markets vs artists). In the end though, I prefer to go with Niels Bohr's "It is very difficult to predict, especially about the future." I generally consider most content in The Economist with considerable reservation, which I think is reasonable given their own track record in prediction (e.g. globalization, unrestricted markets, etc.). In this case they’ve made it fairly easy for themselves. They treat Faith Popcorn with alacrity, but she’s not usually considered to be in the same league as Alvin Toffler and others. They insist on sticking with their mantra that the market is omniscient and all-knowing, “The most heeded futurists these days are not individuals, but prediction markets”, even if it stumbles a little from time to time, “But after the market panic of 2007 more humility is to be expected there too.”

I prefer to go with William Gibson’s assessment of predicting the future, since he was remarkably accurate in Neuromancer (1984). In an interview in Salon.com in August 2007, in parallel with the publication of his new book, he says:

–begin quote–
“…our present has become so unutterably brief and ever-changing that we have no ground upon which we can stand and project a future historical arc as H.G. Wells and Robert Heinlein were able to. The short form of that is, none of us know what the hell is going to happen next.
If I’d gone into a publisher’s office in 1981 and pitched a novel set in a world with a lethal, sexually transmitted virus that was going to take down huge numbers of human beings, and in that same world, it was determined that we’d completely thrown the climate of the planet out of whack — not only would they not have bothered but they probably would have called security. No one except possibly the late John Brunner, in his brilliant novel “The Sheep Look Up,” has ever described anything in science fiction that is remotely like the reality of 2007 as we know it.”
–end quote–

Actually, I think it is the artists like Gibson and Eno who have the best idea of the future, though admittedly I haven’t done an analytical study of the contrasts and comparisons between the classes (markets vs artists). In the end though, I prefer to go with Niels Bohr’s “It is very difficult to predict, especially about the future.”

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