Comments on: Paul Saffo, “Embracing Uncertainty – the secret to effective forecasting” http://blog.longnow.org/2008/01/14/paul-saffo-embracing-uncertainty-the-secret-to-effective-forecasting/ The Official Weblog of The Long Now Foundation and Friends Tue, 16 Mar 2010 14:27:23 -0700 http://wordpress.org/?v=2.8.4 hourly 1 By: BCH Blog » Blog Archive » Mirrors of the future http://blog.longnow.org/2008/01/14/paul-saffo-embracing-uncertainty-the-secret-to-effective-forecasting/comment-page-1/#comment-7955 BCH Blog » Blog Archive » Mirrors of the future Fri, 04 Sep 2009 13:56:33 +0000 http://blog.longnow.org/2008/01/14/paul-saffo-embracing-uncertainty-the-secret-to-effective-forecasting/#comment-7955 [...] the weak signals that have led to big changes. A good overview of the whole seminar can be found here where Saffo gives some examples of those weak signals in history’s mirror that can help us [...] [...] the weak signals that have led to big changes. A good overview of the whole seminar can be found here where Saffo gives some examples of those weak signals in history’s mirror that can help us [...]

]]> By: Forecasting Libraries, Part 1 - Narrowing the Cone of Uncertainty » Today + 1 http://blog.longnow.org/2008/01/14/paul-saffo-embracing-uncertainty-the-secret-to-effective-forecasting/comment-page-1/#comment-7744 Forecasting Libraries, Part 1 - Narrowing the Cone of Uncertainty » Today + 1 Tue, 11 Aug 2009 12:55:03 +0000 http://blog.longnow.org/2008/01/14/paul-saffo-embracing-uncertainty-the-secret-to-effective-forecasting/#comment-7744 [...] a podcast of a seminar by Paul Saffo entitled “Embracing Uncertainty - the Secret to Effective Forecasting”. In it he suggests that one of the main problems with forecasting or predicting future trends is [...] [...] a podcast of a seminar by Paul Saffo entitled “Embracing Uncertainty – the Secret to Effective Forecasting”. In it he suggests that one of the main problems with forecasting or predicting future trends is [...]

]]> By: Doc Searls Weblog · Reality 1.995.12 http://blog.longnow.org/2008/01/14/paul-saffo-embracing-uncertainty-the-secret-to-effective-forecasting/comment-page-1/#comment-7730 Doc Searls Weblog · Reality 1.995.12 Mon, 10 Aug 2009 11:12:39 +0000 http://blog.longnow.org/2008/01/14/paul-saffo-embracing-uncertainty-the-secret-to-effective-forecasting/#comment-7730 [...] Paul Saffo is right when he says we overestimate in the short term and underestimate in the long, my out-there prophesies might [...] [...] Paul Saffo is right when he says we overestimate in the short term and underestimate in the long, my out-there prophesies might [...]

]]> By: The Cone of Uncertainty | missjenny http://blog.longnow.org/2008/01/14/paul-saffo-embracing-uncertainty-the-secret-to-effective-forecasting/comment-page-1/#comment-6955 The Cone of Uncertainty | missjenny Sat, 09 May 2009 16:08:58 +0000 http://blog.longnow.org/2008/01/14/paul-saffo-embracing-uncertainty-the-secret-to-effective-forecasting/#comment-6955 [...] Long Now’s recap of his talk provides better detail to each of his rules and a few more thoughts. Didn’t seem right to just copy/paste here… so please take a read here on the Long Now Blog. [...] [...] Long Now’s recap of his talk provides better detail to each of his rules and a few more thoughts. Didn’t seem right to just copy/paste here… so please take a read here on the Long Now Blog. [...]

]]> By: PM Hut http://blog.longnow.org/2008/01/14/paul-saffo-embracing-uncertainty-the-secret-to-effective-forecasting/comment-page-1/#comment-6293 PM Hut Mon, 09 Feb 2009 19:42:15 +0000 http://blog.longnow.org/2008/01/14/paul-saffo-embracing-uncertainty-the-secret-to-effective-forecasting/#comment-6293 I read your post and I was remembering the old saying: "The only thing that is certain is change" . As I'm a project manager and I run a project management website ( <a href='http://www.pmhut.com' rel="nofollow">PM Hut</a>) I have to say that change is one of the things that makes a Project Manager's life a living nightmare. The really good Project Manager are those who can embrace change, and think of a change as something that goes with the job, and not a burden. Your point that "Change is never linear" is excellent. I read your post and I was remembering the old saying: “The only thing that is certain is change” . As I’m a project manager and I run a project management website ( PM Hut) I have to say that change is one of the things that makes a Project Manager’s life a living nightmare. The really good Project Manager are those who can embrace change, and think of a change as something that goes with the job, and not a burden.

Your point that “Change is never linear” is excellent.

]]> By: Forecasting The Future - Some Rules! « Steps & Leaps http://blog.longnow.org/2008/01/14/paul-saffo-embracing-uncertainty-the-secret-to-effective-forecasting/comment-page-1/#comment-6290 Forecasting The Future - Some Rules! « Steps & Leaps Mon, 09 Feb 2009 13:22:16 +0000 http://blog.longnow.org/2008/01/14/paul-saffo-embracing-uncertainty-the-secret-to-effective-forecasting/#comment-6290 [...] a nice summary of a talk that Paul Saffo gave at The Long Now Foundation on “Embracing Uncertainty - The Secret To Effective Forecasting” (audio version of talk also available and video is here). “Reflecting on his 25 years as a [...] [...] a nice summary of a talk that Paul Saffo gave at The Long Now Foundation on “Embracing Uncertainty – The Secret To Effective Forecasting” (audio version of talk also available and video is here). “Reflecting on his 25 years as a [...]

]]> By: The Art of Intelligence « Profitable Readings http://blog.longnow.org/2008/01/14/paul-saffo-embracing-uncertainty-the-secret-to-effective-forecasting/comment-page-1/#comment-5856 The Art of Intelligence « Profitable Readings Tue, 18 Nov 2008 14:14:26 +0000 http://blog.longnow.org/2008/01/14/paul-saffo-embracing-uncertainty-the-secret-to-effective-forecasting/#comment-5856 [...] knowledge. Technologist and Forecaster Paul Saffo makes this argument in the Long Now presentation “Embracing Uncertainty” as did economist Friedrich Hayek whose following quote appeared in the book Crowdsourcing.” [...] [...] knowledge. Technologist and Forecaster Paul Saffo makes this argument in the Long Now presentation “Embracing Uncertainty” as did economist Friedrich Hayek whose following quote appeared in the book Crowdsourcing.” [...]

]]> By: Paul Saffo, “Embracing Uncertainty: the secret to effective forecasting”, Longnow Foundation, 2008/01/14 « Media Download Queue –> Coevolving Innovations http://blog.longnow.org/2008/01/14/paul-saffo-embracing-uncertainty-the-secret-to-effective-forecasting/comment-page-1/#comment-5011 Paul Saffo, “Embracing Uncertainty: the secret to effective forecasting”, Longnow Foundation, 2008/01/14 « Media Download Queue –> Coevolving Innovations Wed, 06 Aug 2008 01:12:32 +0000 http://blog.longnow.org/2008/01/14/paul-saffo-embracing-uncertainty-the-secret-to-effective-forecasting/#comment-5011 [...] The Long Now Blog » Blog Archive » Paul Saffo, “Embracing Uncertainty - the secret to effective ... [...] [...] The Long Now Blog » Blog Archive » Paul Saffo, “Embracing Uncertainty – the secret to effective … [...]

]]> By: Paula Kaye http://blog.longnow.org/2008/01/14/paul-saffo-embracing-uncertainty-the-secret-to-effective-forecasting/comment-page-1/#comment-4816 Paula Kaye Sat, 12 Jul 2008 17:57:41 +0000 http://blog.longnow.org/2008/01/14/paul-saffo-embracing-uncertainty-the-secret-to-effective-forecasting/#comment-4816 STEWART BRAND? Wow. Guess that shows how far out of the loop I am. Or, I must be hanging out at the wrong websites, cause I haven't seen that name in a while. Just wanted you know that it's good to see that byline again--and in such good company! P. STEWART BRAND? Wow. Guess that shows how far out of the loop I am. Or, I must be hanging out at the wrong websites, cause I haven’t seen that name in a while. Just wanted you know that it’s good to see that byline again–and in such good company!

P.

]]> By: Paul Saffo: Forecasting must embrace uncertainty at Resilience Science http://blog.longnow.org/2008/01/14/paul-saffo-embracing-uncertainty-the-secret-to-effective-forecasting/comment-page-1/#comment-3474 Paul Saffo: Forecasting must embrace uncertainty at Resilience Science Wed, 13 Feb 2008 17:23:43 +0000 http://blog.longnow.org/2008/01/14/paul-saffo-embracing-uncertainty-the-secret-to-effective-forecasting/#comment-3474 [...] Paul Saffo recently gave a talk “Embracing Uncertainty - the secret to effective forecasting” at the Long Now foundation. The talk (mp3) and Stewart Brand’s summary are online on the Long [...] [...] Paul Saffo recently gave a talk “Embracing Uncertainty – the secret to effective forecasting” at the Long Now foundation. The talk (mp3) and Stewart Brand’s summary are online on the Long [...]

]]> By: Danny Bloom http://blog.longnow.org/2008/01/14/paul-saffo-embracing-uncertainty-the-secret-to-effective-forecasting/comment-page-1/#comment-3466 Danny Bloom Tue, 12 Feb 2008 02:09:40 +0000 http://blog.longnow.org/2008/01/14/paul-saffo-embracing-uncertainty-the-secret-to-effective-forecasting/#comment-3466 I wonder what Saffo or Brand would think of the possibility of "polar cities" in the far distant future to house survivors of global warming catastrophic events, perhaps 30 generations down the road? Just a non-threatening thought experiment for now, although most adaptation experts do not want to think about such things now. Google the term "polar cities" and see for yourself, or see the images here: http://pcillu101.blogspot.com Keith Farnish in the UK calls polar cities idea "a potent warning rather than a hopeful future". He's right. What would Saffo or Brand say? Have either of them ever considered polar cities as a possible adaptation strategy in say, 2323 or 2424? I wonder what Saffo or Brand would think of the possibility of “polar cities” in the far distant future to house survivors of global warming catastrophic events, perhaps 30 generations down the road? Just a non-threatening thought experiment for now, although most adaptation experts do not want to think about such things now. Google the term “polar cities” and see for yourself, or see the images here:

http://pcillu101.blogspot.com

Keith Farnish in the UK calls polar cities idea “a potent warning rather than a hopeful future”. He’s right. What would Saffo or Brand say? Have either of them ever considered polar cities as a possible adaptation strategy in say, 2323 or 2424?

]]> By: Lifeblog http://blog.longnow.org/2008/01/14/paul-saffo-embracing-uncertainty-the-secret-to-effective-forecasting/comment-page-1/#comment-3413 Lifeblog Mon, 04 Feb 2008 13:35:30 +0000 http://blog.longnow.org/2008/01/14/paul-saffo-embracing-uncertainty-the-secret-to-effective-forecasting/#comment-3413 <strong>Elated with Saffo seminar...</strong> I finally listened to the Saffo's Long Now talk on forecasting. What really excited me is that he said some things that I've been thinking about. I wonder if I picked it up from the same folks he's picked it... Elated with Saffo seminar…

I finally listened to the Saffo’s Long Now talk on forecasting. What really excited me is that he said some things that I’ve been thinking about. I wonder if I picked it up from the same folks he’s picked it…

]]> By: Lifeblog http://blog.longnow.org/2008/01/14/paul-saffo-embracing-uncertainty-the-secret-to-effective-forecasting/comment-page-1/#comment-3336 Lifeblog Sun, 27 Jan 2008 07:36:15 +0000 http://blog.longnow.org/2008/01/14/paul-saffo-embracing-uncertainty-the-secret-to-effective-forecasting/#comment-3336 <strong>Paul Saffo on the Rules of Forecasting...</strong> Saffo to me was always some sort of weird wizard who thought and saw differently than others. I've met folks who channel the future, and it's always wondrous and bewildering. Saffo gave a Long Now seminar recently and here (link... Paul Saffo on the Rules of Forecasting…

Saffo to me was always some sort of weird wizard who thought and saw differently than others. I’ve met folks who channel the future, and it’s always wondrous and bewildering. Saffo gave a Long Now seminar recently and here (link…

]]> By: Daniel O'Donnell http://blog.longnow.org/2008/01/14/paul-saffo-embracing-uncertainty-the-secret-to-effective-forecasting/comment-page-1/#comment-3315 Daniel O'Donnell Sun, 20 Jan 2008 06:13:07 +0000 http://blog.longnow.org/2008/01/14/paul-saffo-embracing-uncertainty-the-secret-to-effective-forecasting/#comment-3315 I was scheduled to be in SF the following week, so flew up early to attend this talk. Also took along a friend who is by nature a skeptic about futurist prediction. As Niels Bohr is reputed to have said, it is very difficult to predict the future, and Paul Saffo seemed to agree somewhat. He was funny and somewhat self-effacing in admitting that sometimes he's wrong, but the trick is to ignore it and keep predicting - and sometimes he (and we) will get it right. Stewart's summary here is good and accurate, but I hope the mp3 and mp4 are up soon so I can review the talk. I was scheduled to be in SF the following week, so flew up early to attend this talk. Also took along a friend who is by nature a skeptic about futurist prediction. As Niels Bohr is reputed to have said, it is very difficult to predict the future, and Paul Saffo seemed to agree somewhat. He was funny and somewhat self-effacing in admitting that sometimes he’s wrong, but the trick is to ignore it and keep predicting – and sometimes he (and we) will get it right. Stewart’s summary here is good and accurate, but I hope the mp3 and mp4 are up soon so I can review the talk.

]]> By: Anne Truitt Zelenka » links for 2008-01-15 http://blog.longnow.org/2008/01/14/paul-saffo-embracing-uncertainty-the-secret-to-effective-forecasting/comment-page-1/#comment-3283 Anne Truitt Zelenka » links for 2008-01-15 Tue, 15 Jan 2008 09:29:04 +0000 http://blog.longnow.org/2008/01/14/paul-saffo-embracing-uncertainty-the-secret-to-effective-forecasting/#comment-3283 [...] Long Views » Blog Archive » Paul Saffo, “Embracing Uncertainty - the secret to effective forecas... 6 rules for forecasting including “Change is never linear. Our expectations are linear, but new technologies come in “S” curves, so we routinely overestimate short-term change and underestimate long-term change.” (tags: predictions forecasting change rules future) [...] [...] Long Views » Blog Archive » Paul Saffo, “Embracing Uncertainty – the secret to effective forecas… 6 rules for forecasting including “Change is never linear. Our expectations are linear, but new technologies come in “S” curves, so we routinely overestimate short-term change and underestimate long-term change.” (tags: predictions forecasting change rules future) [...]

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