Comments on: Election Prediction Markets http://blog.longnow.org/2008/01/23/election-prediction-markets/ The Official Weblog of The Long Now Foundation and Friends Sun, 12 Oct 2008 07:29:45 +0000 http://wordpress.org/?v=2.2.3 By: Henry DeLuca http://blog.longnow.org/2008/01/23/election-prediction-markets/#comment-4586 Henry DeLuca Mon, 26 May 2008 18:29:35 +0000 http://blog.longnow.org/2008/01/23/election-prediction-markets/#comment-4586 I notice that Intrade has Obama beating McCain by 61% to 38%- http://www.intrade.com/jsp/intrade/misc/charts/ But IEW has Obama at a slimmer margin of 59% to 41% Which is more accurate? I notice that Intrade has Obama beating McCain by 61% to 38%-
http://www.intrade.com/jsp/intrade/misc/charts/

But IEW has Obama at a slimmer margin of 59% to 41%

Which is more accurate?

]]> By: Jim http://blog.longnow.org/2008/01/23/election-prediction-markets/#comment-3343 Jim Mon, 28 Jan 2008 10:57:24 +0000 http://blog.longnow.org/2008/01/23/election-prediction-markets/#comment-3343 In the Bill Clinton example, shouldn't that read "...you would have profited 65 [not 75] cents...." ($1 - .35 cent sale price.) In the Bill Clinton example, shouldn’t that read “…you would have profited 65 [not 75] cents….” ($1 - .35 cent sale price.)

]]> By: Jim http://blog.longnow.org/2008/01/23/election-prediction-markets/#comment-3342 Jim Mon, 28 Jan 2008 10:45:27 +0000 http://blog.longnow.org/2008/01/23/election-prediction-markets/#comment-3342 It's probably worth noting that the Presidential Election graph shown here is the "Vote Share" market. The "Winner Takes All" market has been fairly consistent at about 60%-40% (DEM-REP) since early April, though it has tightened a bit recently, to 58%-42%. It’s probably worth noting that the Presidential Election graph shown here is the “Vote Share” market. The “Winner Takes All” market has been fairly consistent at about 60%-40% (DEM-REP) since early April, though it has tightened a bit recently, to 58%-42%.

]]> By: David http://blog.longnow.org/2008/01/23/election-prediction-markets/#comment-3326 David Thu, 24 Jan 2008 10:35:08 +0000 http://blog.longnow.org/2008/01/23/election-prediction-markets/#comment-3326 I predict a whole new class of scandals emerging. We'll be seeing politicians betting against themselves and then throwing elections. I predict a whole new class of scandals emerging. We’ll be seeing politicians betting against themselves and then throwing elections.

]]> By: Chris Masse http://blog.longnow.org/2008/01/23/election-prediction-markets/#comment-3325 Chris Masse Thu, 24 Jan 2008 08:44:58 +0000 http://blog.longnow.org/2008/01/23/election-prediction-markets/#comment-3325 Why not using InTrade or BetFair trading data, then, since those 2 real-money prediction exchanges are many dozens of times more popular than IEM? Why not using InTrade or BetFair trading data, then, since those 2 real-money prediction exchanges are many dozens of times more popular than IEM?

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