Archive for February, 02008

Tracking our little heres for the long now

Friday, February 29th, 02008

Artist collaborative plan b makes location-specific works and performances exploring the dynamics of narrative and time. It is composed of artist partners Daniel Rogers and Sophia Screenshot of plan b GPS tracking in BerlinNew; Daniel has been carrying GPS trackers with him everywhere since 2003, and Sophia since 2007. They visualize GPS data by translating time-stamped coordinates into lines, and creating time-lapse animations superimposed on maps of their location. These animated visualizations allow Dan and Sophia to discover patterns in the way they move through space and time. Their animation for Berlin, of which the image left is a screenshot, reveals dense straight cords and right angles, representing routes driven daily, and light meandering squiggles, representing walks with their toddler who stops to examine each flower, dog, etc. If Dan and Sophia continued gathering data, they would see the squiggly lines became straighter and darker as their daughter grew up. Essentially, they would see their lives, as manifested in their movement patterns, changing through time.

Cabspotting Closer to home is Cabspotting, a project tracing San Francisco’s GPS-outfitted taxi cabs as they travel throughout the Bay Area. The image right is a screenshot of an time-lapse animation of cabs traveling through the Presidio area between 6:00am-10:00am on January 26, 02006. As with plan b, Cabspotting’s time-lapse animations of taxi cab travel represent economic, social, and cultural trends that would be otherwise invisible. And again, if animations were strung together into a time-lapse animation of time-lapse animations, it would reveal these trends changing through time.

Long Now Media Update

Friday, February 29th, 02008

Long Now Podcasts

The latest Seminars About Long-term Thinking are now available as audio downloads or podcasts and in hi-res video for Long Now members.

Craig Venter on “Joining 3.5 Billion years of Microbial Invention” - audio up now, video coming soon

2053 Years ago, a day was added

Friday, February 29th, 02008

Over two millennia ago Julius Caesar started adjusting the 364 day calendar to get it back in synch with the seasons causing an audible groan from mechanical calendar makers everywhere.  1500 years later Pope Gregory added two more exceptions to tune it further: There is no leap day added on even century years unless divisible by 400.  (The only time all four exceptions were invoked was the year 02000) This means that to make the ‘perpetual’ mechanical calendar seen in some high end watches and our Clock, one has to make all kinds of special gears and cams that trump and un-trump each other based on these rules. More here from Wired Science:

45 B.C.: Roman dictator-for-life Julius Caesar, alarmed that the calendar is growing out of whack with the seasons, adds an extra day to the month of February every four years.

Caesar was reforming a calendar based on 364 days, with an occasional extra leap month. But the Roman religious officials in charge of minding the calendar had been asleep at the switch, chronologically speaking. Caesar consulted with Egypt’s top astronomers, who told him the year was 365¼ days long. While he was making the fix, Julius also decided to give his name to the month of July.

Although Caesar decreed the new calendar in 46 B.C., that year had 15 months to make up for the accumulated discrepancy. The first add-a-day leap year was 45 B.C.

The new Julian leap day wasn’t added at the end of February originally, but on the day preceding the 6th of the calends of March. The Romans didn’t count the days of the months from 1 on up, but used an idiosyncratic system of calends, nons and ides — and we all know what happened to ol’ J.C. on the ides of March, 44 B.C.

The longest conversation

Thursday, February 28th, 02008

 

I was reminded yesterday when speaking with one of the SETI board members of the very interesting conundrum we might find ourselves in if we in fact did receive a message from space.  Above is some imagery from the first seriously high powered transmission from earth, dubbed the Arecibo message:

The [01974] transmission consisted of a simple, pictorial message, aimed at our putative cosmic companions in the globular star cluster M13. This cluster is roughly 21,000 light-years from us, near the edge of the Milky Way galaxy, and contains approximately a third of a million stars.

So the best case scenario is that this data reaches a civilization in 21,000 years.  Which means they think up some brilliant response, and then beam it back.  Even if we found life much closer, it is most likely that the conversation delay would be at least a thousand years or more.  So what does one say in a multi-millennial conversation?  At least on the terrestrial end, each response would be made by wildly different civilizations.

Svalbard Seed Vault Opens

Wednesday, February 27th, 02008

Amazingly only a few years after it begun the Seed Vault in Svalbard has opened. I cant wait to go and see how they built a multi-millennial structure so fast.

PhysOrg reports:

The Svalbard Global Seed Vault opened today on a remote island in the Arctic Circle, receiving inaugural shipments of 100 million seeds that originated in over 100 countries. With the deposits ranging from unique varieties of major African and Asian food staples such as maize, rice, wheat, cowpea, and sorghum to European and South American varieties of eggplant, lettuce, barley, and potato, the first deposits into the seed vault represent the most comprehensive and diverse collection of food crop seeds being held anywhere in the world.

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Each vault is surrounded by frozen arctic permafrost, ensuring the continued viability of the seeds should the electricity supply fail. The low temperature and moisture level inside the vaults will ensure low metabolic activity, keeping the seeds viable. If properly stored and maintained at minus 20 degrees Celsius (about minus 4 degrees Fahrenheit), some seeds in the vault will be viable for a millennium or more. For example, barley can last 2000 years, wheat 1700 years, and sorghum almost 20,000 years.

A work of art also will make the vault visible for miles around. Artist Dyveke Sanne and KORO, the Norwegian agency overseeing art in public spaces, have worked together to fill the roof and vault entrance with highly reflective steel, mirrors, and prisms. The installation acts as a beacon, reflecting polar light in the summer months, while in the winter, a network of 200 fibre-optic cables will give the piece a muted greenish-turquoise and white light.

One my favorite bits of the story is that the vault is built near the village of “Longyearbyen,” what a great name for a town with endless winters!

Craig Venter “Joining 3.5 Billion Years of Microbial Invention”

Tuesday, February 26th, 02008

Craig Venter

Decoding and recoding life

To really read DNA accurately and understand it thoroughly, you need to be able to write it from scratch and make it live, Venter explained.

His sequencing the first diploid human genome (with the genes from both parents) last year showed there is much more genetic variation between humans than first thought. His current goal is to fully sequence 10,000 humans and bring the price for each sequence down to $1,000. With that data, his says, “We’ll begin to really learn what’s nature and what’s nurture.”

“Microbes make up one half of the Earth’s biomass.” Venter’s shotgun sequencing of open-ocean microbial samples revealed that every milliliter of ocean has one million bacteria and archaea and ten million viruses even in supposedly barren waters. Taking samples on a round-the-world sailing trip showed that every 200 miles the genes in the microbes are 85% different.

“Microbes dominate evolutionary diversity,” Venter said. Some 50,000 major gene familes have been discovered. Humans and other complex animals have a small fraction of that in our own genes, but the “microbiome” of our onboard microbes carry the full richness. Only 1/10th of the cells in a human are human; the rest are microbes. There are 1,000 species in our mouths, another 1,000 in our guts, another 500 on our skins, and those with vaginas have yet another 500 species.

Analysis has shown that a tenth of the chemicals used in our body come to us via our gut microbes. “We are what we feed our bacteria and what they give us.”

In an effort to determine what is the minimum gene set for life, Venter’s team took a 500-gene bacteria and began knocking out genes. They got the viable set down to 400 and realized that the only way they are going to understand the complexity is by mimicking it. They would need to synthesize a working genome artificially, first on a computer and then with assembled base pairs and “boot it up” in a living cell, making a new, unique species. They devised techniques that repaired errors during synthesis, and they demonstrated that a genome from one kind of bacteria could be implanted in another and come to life there, changing one species into another. “It was true identity theft.”

“This software builds its own hardware,” Venter marveled.

He emphasized that synthetic biology does not re-do Genesis, but it does offer a kind of Cambrian explosion, building on 3.5 billion years of evolution to go in an infinity of possible directions. The range of possibilities is indicated by an existing organism that can take 1.75 million rads of radioactivity in 24 hours, which explodes its genome. It can reassemble the shattered genome and live on. It can go dormant for millions of years, and live on. That means life may already have migrated between planets.

Venter proposed that our current energy and climate situation requires truly disruptive technology. One project he’s working on would use altered microbes to metabolize coal in the ground and generate methane, for a tenfold increase in carbon efficiency. Another project proposes a “4th generation biofuel,” where engineered algae directly convert CO2 into hydrogen in bioreactors.

“Ten million genes are the design components of the future,” Venter concluded. “With combinatorial genomics and casette-based construction, we can make millions of genomes per day.”

During the Q & A I asked Venter why he spends so much of his time speaking in public, 150 talks a year. He said he sees that as part of his scientific work, to prepare the public for the big changes coming. He wants to avoid repeating the mistakes made with genetically modified crops (GMOs), where there was insufficient transparency and regulation, and irrational opposition by environmentalists, which crippled a crucial field.

The public should feel it is included in every stage of genetic science and emerging biotechnology.

–Stewart Brand

Long Duration Studies

Thursday, February 21st, 02008

In 1984 NASA launched a bus-sized cylinder into space. It was covered with 86 panels, each of which was a scientific experiment created to measure the long-term effects of space on various materials. The space craft, called the Long Duration Exposure Facility (LDEF) weighed 10 tons and circled the earth 32,000 times before it was retrieved by the Space Shuttle. NASA says the “experiments involved the participation of more than 200 principal investigators from 33 private companies, 21 universities, seven NASA centers, nine Department of Defense laboratories and eight foreign countries.”

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After it was returned to earth an additional 400 scientists studied the wear and tear upon the surface of this spacecraft after 5.7 years in space. Of course, 5 years is hardly long, especially for space, but it’s a start in trying to understand what would happen over centuries in space.

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Each of the 86 panels is its own science experiment. Each has a beauty of their own. They posses a kind of geeky modernist charm.

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And each has also acquired a patina of expose to meteors, vacuums, and extreme heat and cold.

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The author of thenonist was so enamomured by the beauty of the panels as “art” that he posted a wonderful gallery of them as an ode to this overlooked tool.

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Life: What a concept

Tuesday, February 19th, 02008

As more prep for Venter’s upcoming talk this Monday…

LIFE: WHAT A CONCEPT!
An Edge Special Event at Eastover Farm

This year’s Annual Edge Event took place at Eastover Farm in Bethlehem, CT on Monday, August 27th. Invited to address the topic “Life: What a Concept!” were Freeman Dyson, J. Craig Venter, George Church, Robert Shapiro, Dimitar Sasselov, and Seth Lloyd, who focused on their new, and in more than a few cases, startling research, and/or ideas in the biological sciences.  You can see more on this link.

Futurists! - Earn $$$ Now!

Saturday, February 16th, 02008

I’ve Stumbledupon (quite literally) a interesting looking site called Predictify.

Predictify seems to be combining social networking, message board discussion, pay-per-post business models and Wikipedia-style collective wisdom into a harmonious online community of eager questioners and knowledgeable, astute predictors, all united to discuss deterministic questions about the future, share knowledge, and act on the results.

Because mob rule *totally* works on the internet.

predictify.jpg

With Predictify, registered users can read questions posed by questioners, pose their own questions, predict answers, and repeatedly smack down internet smart-alecks who try to use the site for betting, insider trading, and making off-color predictions about their dorm roommate’s luck with the opposite sex during the upcoming weekend.

Theoretically, predictors also get paid every time their predictions are correct. Questioners can pay a premium based on the number of responses which in turn entitle them to collect value tables for a given question, collect larger data sample sets and keep a running tally of private data if they so desire. The pot is shared out among the predictors who nailed the question most accurately and soonest, according to rank, expertise level, phase of the moon, etc etc.

The site includes live news feeds relevant to the question being discussed. Gimmicks like community points, reputation rankings, and “private prediction environments for you and your friends” trigger that social network addict’s instinct to refresh the page every thirteen seconds.

The truly dedicated Predictify player, if enough time and energy were invested, could find themselves joyously sucked into in an interdisciplinary morass of statistics, arcane behavioral controls, incompatible social networks, philosophical conundra, high level mathematics and a steadfastly erratic human element, which make the site reminiscent of the game Eschaton from David Foster Wallace’s novel Infinite Jest, in that play is aided by the ability to quickly master advanced game theory and do the metaphysical equivalent of pegging small objects with tennis balls with deadly accuracy.

Since this is what we do for fun around here at The Long Now, it sounds like a grand time to me.

Long Now Media Update

Friday, February 15th, 02008

Podcast logo

The latest Seminars About Long-term Thinking are now available as audio downloads or podcasts and in hi-res video for Long Now members.

* Nassim Nicholas Taleb on “The Future Has Always Been Crazier Than We Thought” - audio up now, video coming soon
* Paul Saffo on “Embracing Uncertainty: the secret to effective forecasting”


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