Past vs. Future

In what turned out to be a riveting evening, historian Niall Ferguson and futurist Peter Schwartz fire-hosed each other with enough ideas, frames of reference, ripostes, and eloquences to lead to a clear conceptual divergence. At the same time, the two were discovering, live in front of an audience, new ways they might work together on future projects.

Ferguson began by pointing out that while we face many futures, there is only one past, and its residents outnumber us…

Read the rest of Stewart Brand’s Summary

I want to build a clock that ticks once a year. The century hand advances once every one hundred years, and the cuckoo comes out on the millennium. I want the cuckoo to come out every millennium for the next 10,000 years. If I hurry I should finish the clock in time to see the cuckoo come out for the first time.

~Danny Hillis, “The Millennium Clock“, 01995

As we at the Long Now are well aware, one thing about designing clocks is that, like any mechanical system, they can go wrong.

This 01953 sketch from Sid Caesar‘s live-to-air weekly comedy program Your Show of Shows reminds us just how true that is.

The Baverhoff clock may be broken — but surprisingly, after more than half a century, the comedy still works.

(Link via Nerve.com)

For those of you in the SF Bay Area, The Chabot Space and Science Center is hosting one of their quarterly Lunar Express Lounge evenings and debuting a cool kinetic wave piece by Margolin. Looks like a fun evening all around with music, drinks, planetarium shows etc. Through a generous offer, Long Now members can get half off the ticket price, check your email box for details, or email membership@longnow.org

 This astonishing clock project was brought to my attention by Austin Brown via the Make blog… note in the image above the analog clock hands forming the word  FOUR in the lower right quadrant.

Dutch designer Christiaan Postma figured out how to arrange more than 150 analog clocks in such a way that at certain times, the hands line up to spell the words of the hour.

Prison Uniforms, 2007
10×23 feet in six vertical panels Depicts 2.3 million folded prison uniforms, equal to the number of Americans incarcerated in 2005.

Sean Tafller sent me this link to Chris Jordan’s photography. Hi-res photos of e-waste and his “American Portrait” depicting everything from the number of flights per day int he US to the number of toothpicks used is a real big here, long zoom moment. Similar themes are explored in Ed Burtynsky‘s work, who will be speaking in our Seminar series later this year.

Roger Kennedy brought this story to my attention about a spruce that was nearly 10,000 years old on the mountainous border between Sweden and Norway. As it turns out the trees themselves only last several centuries, but their root systems live on. It is postulated that the root system of the one pictured above basically started at the end of the last ice age, and has lived on in the harsh and isolated landscape ever since. As the Bristlecone adage goes “adversity breeds longevity”.

Former intern Jason Li sent in this brilliant “maps through time” site that shows growth in urban centers over time. Of particular interest is the Seattle mapset that shows the spike in homes built in Seattle as people moved from San Francisco after the 01906 Earthquake.

Online playpen colorwars is currently running a photo competition called YoungMeNowMe, which involves submitting a shot of yourself as a youngster, together with the closest possible recreation of the same setup and pose, today.

Blogger and colorwars maestro Ze Frank posts an example: “The image to the left is me at my first showing of my art at my mom’s restaurant. The image to the right is me standing in front of two images that were created using the scribbler robot at TED 2005.”

You can look through the gallery here (competition ends 20 April).

To me there’s something quite fascinating about seeing how much people change — and don’t — with the passage of time — also seen more gradually in videos like this.

This is no less true of places, maps, and buildings…

(Thanks, Jake!)

Forbes.com has an excellent special on and about time… They were even nice enough to publish one of my answers to their “What is Time” question in the article by Elizabeth Evans.

Time is a Dimension

Time’s Sleight Of Hand By Brian GreeneWhatever it is, time doesn’t behave the way you would think.

A Brief History Of Time Machines By David ToomeyThe truth may be stranger than fiction.

Time is Money

The Price Of Time By Paul MaidmentTime is a strange economic good, difficult to price and easy to waste.

The Money Meter By David M. Ewalt & Blair EllisThey say time is money. How much is yours worth?

Time is Flying

A Cure For Chronocentrism By Tim PowersTo a leap day baby, time is more like an unfenced landscape than the clicking of an odometer.

Peace Time By David A. AndelmanBack in the simpler days of 1919, at the Paris peace talks, the whole world was redrawn under different rules of time and space.

Time is Measured

The World’s Oldest Working Clock By Parmy OlsonSalisbury’s cathedral’s clock is still ticking after more than 600 years.

Collections: Vintage Rolexes By Nicola RuizEvan Zimmermann has a lucrative passion for old watches.

• In Pictures: The World’s Most Expensive Watches

Time Is Perception

What Is Time? By Elisabeth EavesIt speeds up, slows down, and stands still.

Is Time Just A Trick Of The Mind? By Lionel LaurentNotions of past, present and future may be our way of filling in the blanks.

Time is Up

The End By Steve AlmondAll significant data now point to the same unwelcome conclusion.

California is more than 99% likely to face an earthquake of magnitude 6.7 or greater over the next thirty years, according to a new model which this week produced the first ever statewide forecast.

Associated Press reports:

New calculations reveal there is a 99.7 percent chance a magnitude 6.7 quake or larger will strike in the next 30 years. The odds of such an event are higher in Southern California than Northern California, 97 percent versus 93 percent.

The last time a jolt this size rattled California was the 1994 Northridge disaster, which killed 72 people, injured more than 9,000 and caused $25 billion in damage.
[...]
The analysis is the first comprehensive effort by the USGS [United States Geological Survey], Southern California Earthquake Center and California Geological Survey to calculate earthquake probabilities for the entire state using newly available data. Previous quake probabilities focused on specific regions and used various methodologies that made it difficult to compare.

~Alicia Chang, “Big Quake to Rock Calif. by 2037“, Discovery News, 14 April 02008.

Adds a USGS press release:

The official earthquake forecasts, known as the “Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast (UCERF),” were developed by a multidisciplinary group of scientists and engineers, known as the Working Group on California Earthquake Probabilities. Building on previous studies, the Working Group updated and developed the first-ever statewide, comprehensive model of California.
[...]
The probability of a magnitude 6.7 or larger earthquake over the next 30 years striking the greater Los Angeles area is 67%, and in the San Francisco Bay Area it is 63%, similar to previous Bay Area estimates. For the entire California region, the fault with the highest probability of generating at least one magnitude 6.7 quake or larger is the southern San Andreas (59% in the next 30 years).
[...]
The new model does not estimate the likelihood of shaking (seismic hazard) that would be caused by quakes. Even areas in the state with a low probability of fault rupture could experience shaking and damage from distant, powerful quakes. The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) is incorporating the UCERF into its official estimate of California’s seismic hazard, which in turn will be used to update building codes. Other subsequent studies will add information on the vulnerability of manmade structures to estimate expected losses, which is called “seismic risk.” In these ways, the UCERF will help to increase public safety and community resilience to earthquake hazards.

~U.S. Geological Survey, “New Study Shows Odds High for Big California Quakes“, 14 April 02008.

An important challenge lies in figuring out what individuals can or should do, if anything, with this kind of probabilistic overview. Connecting the insights of a long view to the decisions of everyday life is really quite difficult (compared to many things that government agencies do, thirty years is decidedly long-term).

We were impressed by last year’s Bay Area Red Cross campaign for earthquake preparedness, which included the temporary installation of a stunning billboard showing San Francisco’s Market Street in ruins. This is one way of mediating risk in an accessible, experiential form, that may have a real impact on what people think about.

However, this new report suggests how a long-term orientation entails taking account of risks that may or may not be germane, or helpful, on a day-to-day basis. (Should the near certainty of a 6.7 California quake by 02037 be taken as an urgent cue to skedaddle? Perhaps not.) Whereas for institutions with systematic responsibilities, and leverage, such as those that respond to emergencies, or those that set and enforce building codes, this may be news they can use. The fostering of long-term responsibility implies different types of engagement for different audiences.

• The full UCERF report
• A summary fact sheet
• Bay Area Red Cross earthquake preparedness campaign