Comments on: The Wisdom of Public Prediction Markets http://blog.longnow.org/2008/09/04/the-wisdom-of-public-prediction-markets/ The Official Weblog of The Long Now Foundation and Friends Sat, 11 Feb 2012 23:43:00 +0000 hourly 1 http://wordpress.org/?v=3.2.1 By: sports betting picks http://blog.longnow.org/2008/09/04/the-wisdom-of-public-prediction-markets/comment-page-1/#comment-21009 sports betting picks Sat, 17 Jul 2010 06:25:19 +0000 http://blog.longnow.org/2008/09/04/the-wisdom-of-public-prediction-markets/#comment-21009 Though this article is two years older but I really admired what the reader is trying to get through. I believe sports betting is part of mans life and it was already in the system of having fun by looking at the game of chance. Though this article is two years older but I really admired what the reader is trying to get through. I believe sports betting is part of mans life and it was already in the system of having fun by looking at the game of chance.

]]> By: Emile Servan-Schreiber http://blog.longnow.org/2008/09/04/the-wisdom-of-public-prediction-markets/comment-page-1/#comment-5391 Emile Servan-Schreiber Thu, 04 Sep 2008 22:45:22 +0000 http://blog.longnow.org/2008/09/04/the-wisdom-of-public-prediction-markets/#comment-5391 Why is there still such skepticism about the reliability of prediction markets? The scientific literature about these things is extensive, easily available, and the record of success is undeniable, at least regarding elections, movies, sports, and all sorts of business-relevant forecasts. If, as we speak, major corporations around the world are running prediction markets, it is because they are finding business value in the process. Is the idea of human collective intelligence so uncomfortable? Do people subconsciously associate collective intelligence with insects, and therefore find it demeaning when the phenomenon is observed in humans? Shall we forever cling to the individual intellect as the epitome of intelligence just because each of us is so used to do his thinking with a single brain? The concept of human collective intelligence could prove as unsettling to western thought today as the ideas of Copernicus and Darwin in their times... Why is there still such skepticism about the reliability of prediction markets? The scientific literature about these things is extensive, easily available, and the record of success is undeniable, at least regarding elections, movies, sports, and all sorts of business-relevant forecasts. If, as we speak, major corporations around the world are running prediction markets, it is because they are finding business value in the process.

Is the idea of human collective intelligence so uncomfortable? Do people subconsciously associate collective intelligence with insects, and therefore find it demeaning when the phenomenon is observed in humans? Shall we forever cling to the individual intellect as the epitome of intelligence just because each of us is so used to do his thinking with a single brain? The concept of human collective intelligence could prove as unsettling to western thought today as the ideas of Copernicus and Darwin in their times…

]]> By: robin hunt http://blog.longnow.org/2008/09/04/the-wisdom-of-public-prediction-markets/comment-page-1/#comment-5389 robin hunt Thu, 04 Sep 2008 21:57:17 +0000 http://blog.longnow.org/2008/09/04/the-wisdom-of-public-prediction-markets/#comment-5389 Thank you Kevin: If you are a fan of Cass Sunstein and his remarkable "Infotopia" this is not new news. But there is another side to these markets: if as Sunstein, Surowiecki and others suggest predictive markets are remarkably accurate, why don't Fox or the BBC or CNN or Wired refer to them more? Ever? Why Pew in a world in which, as Sunstein says, Hayek does seem to rule? Could it be that they are too accurate, too predictive? Could they make polling redundant? Just wondering? Thank you Kevin:

If you are a fan of Cass Sunstein and his remarkable “Infotopia” this is not new news. But there is another side to these markets: if as Sunstein, Surowiecki and others suggest predictive markets are remarkably accurate, why don’t Fox or the BBC or CNN or Wired refer to them more? Ever? Why Pew in a world in which, as Sunstein says, Hayek does seem to rule? Could it be that they are too accurate, too predictive? Could they make polling redundant? Just wondering?

]]> By: Chris Hibbert http://blog.longnow.org/2008/09/04/the-wisdom-of-public-prediction-markets/comment-page-1/#comment-5388 Chris Hibbert Thu, 04 Sep 2008 21:17:46 +0000 http://blog.longnow.org/2008/09/04/the-wisdom-of-public-prediction-markets/#comment-5388 Nigel refers to the standard article on the subject. My claim is that in arenas with lots of public information (football is one, national politics is another) the real money and play money markets are both going to reflect the larger consensus. If there are any backwater markets with few participants, anyone there who also pays attention to the larger consensus will adjust the local prices, so all markets will generally agree. The place where you might see a difference is in questions that aren't of such widespread interest. We have seen in some of the play money markets (<a href="http://ideosphere.com/" rel="nofollow">Foresight Exchange</a> for example) that some people will occasionally spend significant effort researching a question for the esteem value alone. I would expect that real money would drive more research, but we have yet to see markets covering less universal questions where serious money is at stake. Nigel refers to the standard article on the subject. My claim is that in arenas with lots of public information (football is one, national politics is another) the real money and play money markets are both going to reflect the larger consensus. If there are any backwater markets with few participants, anyone there who also pays attention to the larger consensus will adjust the local prices, so all markets will generally agree.

The place where you might see a difference is in questions that aren’t of such widespread interest. We have seen in some of the play money markets (Foresight Exchange for example) that some people will occasionally spend significant effort researching a question for the esteem value alone. I would expect that real money would drive more research, but we have yet to see markets covering less universal questions where serious money is at stake.

]]> By: Nigel Eccles http://blog.longnow.org/2008/09/04/the-wisdom-of-public-prediction-markets/comment-page-1/#comment-5387 Nigel Eccles Thu, 04 Sep 2008 19:51:49 +0000 http://blog.longnow.org/2008/09/04/the-wisdom-of-public-prediction-markets/#comment-5387 Interesting analysis. This corresponds to our experience at Hubdub. Our top traders weigh up their predictions as they would if they were real money. There is an excellent paper on this here: http://www.newsfutures.com/pdf/Does_money_matter.pdf Interesting analysis. This corresponds to our experience at Hubdub. Our top traders weigh up their predictions as they would if they were real money. There is an excellent paper on this here: http://www.newsfutures.com/pdf/Does_money_matter.pdf

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