Blog Archive for September, 02008



Neal Stephenson, “ANATHEM Book Launch Event”

Published on Tuesday, September 9th, 02008 by Robin Ward

Neal Stephenson

Anathem book launch

With over 900 Long Now members and sci-fi appreciators in the audience, we celebrated the release of Neal Stephenson’s new book Anathem on Tuesday September 9, 02008 in San Francisco. With the book drawing heavily on Long Now’s ideas for a 10,000 Year Clock , and our explorations of long-term thinking; we were invited to create this most unusual book release event, which was a wonderful honor for us.

Some highlights of the evening were hearing Neal Stephenson read the opening pages of the book for us, seeing the performance of the elaborate math based chanting (by monks in robes!) created for the book in collaboration with composer David Stutz…

Read the rest of Long Now’s Summary

Anathem Event details

Published on Tuesday, September 9th, 02008 by Alexander Rose - Twitter: @zander


Tickets and pre-signed books are now sold out for the Anathem book launch event on September 9th, 02008 in San Francisco.  The evening will include a reading by Neal Stephenson, a followup conversation with Danny Hillis and Stewart Brand, and a short live concert of the music inspired by the book.  There will even be a martial arts demonstration of Shovel-Fu from the the book.

As time allows, Neal has agreed to do some inscriptions after the reading.

Time: Doors open at 6:30pm, program begins promptly at 7pm

There will be one line for general admission and one line for Long Now Members, I would recommend arriving as early as possible to get in line for good seats.

Venue: The Regency 1320 Van Ness @ Sutter, San Francisco, CA 94109

Not in SF or didn’t get tickets?  You can watch the event live on the web at http://www.longnow.org/anathem, with streaming donated by Streamguys, and filming sponsored by Fora.tv.  The video will also be available on Fora.tv starting the following day September 10th.

 

Rosetta craft rocks our world!

Published on Monday, September 8th, 02008 by Laura Welcher

Steins Asteroid

 

Last week the Rosetta craft (carrying our prototype Rosetta Disk) successfully recorded its flyby of Steins Asteroid with these — the first images from its OSIRIS imaging system (also check out this cool animation). During the flyby, the craft was out of communication for approximately 90 minutes – what must have been a nerve-wracking, although planned silence, as the teams engineers turned Rosetta away from the sun.

The Steins Asteroid was the first scientific target for the Rosetta craft as it makes its way to the comet 67/P Churyumov-Gerasimenko. From the collected data, the team’s scientists hope to better understand the composition and formation of the unusually bright asteroid .

The Wisdom of Public Prediction Markets

Published on Thursday, September 4th, 02008 by Kevin Kelly

Prediction markets continue to proliferate. These communities use money to bet on outcomes in the future. If a prediction comes true, the winners reap the money from the losing betters. The price of a bet, or share, fluctuates over time — and thus can be used as a signal for the community’s opinion. In theory a prediction market taps into the “wisdom of crowds,” but can also be viewed as conventional wisdom. However the results of prediction markets have been proven to be reliable conventional wisdom. (See my previous post on the subject.)
There are two kinds of prediction markets: ones where you bet real money, and ones where you bet funny money. Since betting real money keeps people honest (to reduce their loses), markets with real money are considered a much better indicator of opinion than a mere poll — which has no “penalty” for being less than honest. But real money prediction markets are (stupidly) illegal in the US. So token markets like Long Bets and Bet2Give are devised to innovate around the law.
For instance, Hubdub trades token dollars. You are given $1,000 hubdubs at the start, and $20 each day you log on. You win or loose these token dollars on various predictions. There is a leaderboard which displays the highest ranked traders, showing how much they have gained in the last quarter. One fellow gained $1 million hubdubs, and now has a net worth of $3 million. Hubdub dollars are only good for bragging rights.
One clarification of how the price of a bet works (from Hubdub’s FAQ):

If a prediction has a yes value of 43%, does that mean that 43% of people have voted yes?
No, not really. The forecast is dependent on both the number of people who have selected this outcome and the amount they have risked on it. Very roughly, 43% means that 43% of the money risked by users is riding on that outcome.

I was curious how closely the two formats (real and token money) might match each other so I hunted for a bet that I thought most prediction markets might share: the outcome of the US presidential election. From my brief survey, betting real dollars and token dollars give similar results.  More so, there is a pretty close convergence of price among all the prediction markets:
Roughly, the day after Republican VP candidate Sarah Palin gave her rousing nomination speech, all six different prediction markets price Obama winning at about 60%.

Betfair, based in England, trades real money to make bets. It is the biggest prediction market in the world in terms of numbers of bettors and dollars bet. It’s bread and butter are sports events, including the Olympics, and card games, but it also runs bets on almost anything else including politics.
The day after VP candidate Sarah Palin’s nomination speach, Betfair bookies put the odds for Obama winning at 1.6  and give worse odds for McCain winning at 2.72.
Intrade also bets real money, also mostly on sports, but also on many other wagers. On this same day, Intrade money is on Obama winning at 59%.
409933
On this same day Hubdub market rates on Obama win at 63%.
Chart

On this same day the Iowa Electronic Markets, which I’ve written about previously, and is the only prediction market in the US to legally use real dollars, has Obama winning at 59%.
Pres08 Wta
On this same day, Bet2Give also pegs Obama winning at 63 cents or 63%.
Mlh.16

Bet2Give is run on Newsfuture software and is sort of a non-profit demo for Newsfutures, which sells software for customized enterprise-strength prediction markets. They promise that a company can “harness the wisdom of your crowds.” In Bet2Give you bet with real dollars but your winnings are given to charities, so technically you are not gambling.
Newsfutures itself runs a prediction market using token dollars. On this same day it shows a 60% chance of an Obama win.
Prezadem-3
PPX is another token market. Run by Popular Science magazine, it is their Prediction Exchange. It does not do political predictions, so there’s no chart or price for a new US president. Instead it focuses on tech and commercial predictions. Such as: Will Netflix top 10 million subscribers by end of 2008? (You need to register to see the wagers).
My conclusion is that token money prediction markets carry the same validity as real money prediction markets, and that they are fairly consistent across markets. In that sense they are probably reliable indicators of what people believe at this moment (not be confused with reliable predictions).

The end is nigh

Published on Thursday, September 4th, 02008 by Alexander Rose - Twitter: @zander

On Wednesday morning September 10th, the very excited and optimistic scientists turn on the Large Hadron Collider outside Geneva…

We have a Long Bet that states “Large Hadron Collider will destroy Earth.” And you can watch the video above of what that looks like.

The “First Beam” will occur at 9:30am at CERN, which I believe will be about 1:30am here in San Francisco as we clean up after the Anathem Event. We will be sure to open a bottle of champagne and have a toast.  The world has been a lot of fun so far, shame it has to end :)

Neal Stephenson and the 10,000-Year Clock

Published on Tuesday, September 2nd, 02008 by Kevin Kelly

In 1998 Danny Hillis asked some friends to make sketches of what they imagined a 10,000-year clock should look like. Science fiction author Neal Stephenson, among others, provided several sketches. One of them outlines a clock contained in concentric circles of walls, which opens to outsiders at specific preordained intervals.

Neal-Stephenson-3 3

Stephenson’s handwritten notes on this sketch say:

Multiple shells of several closely-spaced cylinders w/ broad spaces between — perhaps arranged on terraced amphitheater w/ nest sphere in the center.

Outermost shell’s apertures open once an hour to admit & discharge tourists, school field trips, etc. — these can circulate around periphery, view the sphere, & depart. Moving inwards the intervals between openings get longer — perhaps these are inhabited by “clock monk” who devote lives to contemplation &  to help maintain the clock & supporting institution.

In the ten years since then, Hillis and crew have developed engineering designs for the Long Now 10,000-year Clock. Currently the plan is to build the Clock inside a mountain at the end of a long vertical tunnel entrance. Some details of Neal’s ideas may yet be implimented, but the vast circular compound of gates and inner walls won’t be part of the initial Clock.

However, this wonderful Clock idea lives on and is rendered in much greater detail in Neal’s new novel “Anathem”. Like other Stephenson novels, the book is long and epic. The story is complicated and even confusing at first.  The plot explores the friction between the scientific (“mathic”) monks inside the sanctuary of the Clock and the “saecular” superstitious folks living outside the walls in the “extramuros.” The clockers have a different sense of time and responsibility, trying to safegaurd civilization’s knowledge.  But the two worlds come clashing together in cataclismic event.

At Long Now Foundation we’ve always resisted the idea of turning the institution into a religion — even though religions may have the best track record for long-term endurance. But the comparison to monks devoting their lives to maintain a remote and long-lived clock is hard to avoid, especially if you show up at a momentous clock event in a hooded robe.

Work on a prototype 10,000-year clock was completed in time for the millennial celebrations in 2000 (or 02000 as Long Now likes to write it). We installed the clock temporarily in Building 116 in the Presidio, San Francisco, where the Long Now offices were. Long Now was subletting office space from the Internet Archive, where the entire internet was backed up. So in a wonderful parallel to Neal’s later story, the clock was resting in a room only a dozen feet away from the modern universal library of our time.

Stewart Brand, co-founder of the Long Now Foundation, had just returned from a vacation in Morocco the day before so he was wearing a djellaba.

Stewartasmonk-2

Sb10Kclock-1

I took this snapshot of Stewart contemplating the completed Clock just a few minutes before midnight on the New Year’s Eve of Y2K.  The Clock had just been finished in the last few days. The attractive idea is that the clock would bong once for a new century, and bong twice for a new millennia. We were gathered around the prototype clock when it was due to strike twice — once for the century, and once for the Y2K millennium.

It was a very strange scene. Because of hysteria about Y2K, the Presidio was blockaded with a police checkpoint. No one else was around the usually busy park. It was a like a secret society meeting. A very few people, maybe a dozen in total, gathered at the clock as it struck the new year/century/millennia. Stewart looked like a monk overseeing the clock’s big moment. At the countdown there was a total hush because we had no idea if the chimes would really work. Then at midnight, the gears started clicking, whirring. One gong!  Silence. Then another gong!

Then a collective sigh because we realized it would not happen again for another 1,000 years.

Neal was not present (and had never seen this photo), but when a second version of the Clock’s orrery was unveiled in the Marin county machine shop where it was assembled, Neal traveled from Seattle to inspect it.  I took a few quick snapshots of the encounter.

Nealclock

Nealclock2

Neal is a tinkerer. His dad was an engineer. He writes for a half a day and then works in a shop for the other half. He tinkered with hardware experiments for Jeff Bezos’ Blue Origin rocket project,  and now he is working at a lab for Nathan Myhrvold’s patent factory. He here is at Chris Rand’s machine shop, where the parts for the Clock were assembled.

Nealstephenson

A fuller profile of Neal Stephenson by Steven Levy appears in the September 2008 of Wired.

Neal’s book Anathem will launch in San Francisco on Tuesday, September 9th at the Regency building on Van Ness. Because of the overlap in interests, the debut party will be co-hosted by Long Now. Neal will read from his book about the Arbre Clock, Danny and Stewart will talk about the Long Now Clock, there’ll be a martial art demo (an art based on the story), and there will be a performance of unique music.

The Anathem has also spawned a CD of music recorded in the same manner of the music described in Neal’s book. This is mathic music, mathematically generated chants, created especially for Anathem by composer David Stutz. The designs for the chimes of the Long Now Clock are also mathic generative; a prototype of the chime generator is on view in the Long Now museum in Fort Mason. For another example of “mathic” music for a long clock, see Brian Eno’s CD of computational Long Now chimes (titled January 07003). David Stutz’s CD will be available at the event.

Tickets for this celebration of long-term thinking — and launch party for a highly anticipated science fiction novel– are available here.  They cost $11 for admission, and $45 for admission plus signed book. If you are a Long Now member, your ticket alone is free (but you have to RSVP. To become a member, join).

You can hear Neal read a bit of the beginning of his book on this Amazon video clip.  He’s a better conversationalist than reader. It should be quite an evening. We’ll be filming the event as we do all Long Now Seminar talks; the video will be streamed LIVE at Longnow.org/anathem that evening at 7pm PST.

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