Blog Archive for May, 02011



Long Now at Maker Faire and SETI

Published on Wednesday, May 11th, 02011 by Austin Brown

Long Now Executive Director and 10,000 Year Clock Project Manager Alexander Rose will be speaking on the Maker Faire Center Stage at 12:30 on Sunday the 22nd.

Maker Faire is one of the Bay Area’s biggest celebrations of geek culture and it’s back for a 6th installment at the San Mateo Fairgrounds this May 21st & 22nd. Organized by O’Reilly Media, Maker Faire features hundreds of artists, engineers, designers and hackers sharing the things they make.

Alexander is also speaking at the SETI Institute at noon on Wednesday May 18th.

In this talk, titled Construction on the 10,000 Year Clock Begins, he will discuss the process, principles and methods underlying the Clock of the Long Now. The SETI Institute Colloquium Series is held in Mountain View, and is free to the public.

Big Talk: The Possibilities of Large Linguistic Databases

Published on Tuesday, May 10th, 02011 by Alex Mensing

Two language families' trees from Dr. Dunn's paper, with two word-order traits.

How does human language work? What are its possibilities and limitations? Where did it come from? Many linguists have asked these questions and made contributions to our understanding of language, but how do they get their answers?

One approach is to go out and document a language, which can then be compared to other languages, writings from the past, etc. Through various methods, linguists have succeeded in discovering patterns within and between languages that allow us to define some of their parameters and to organize them into families.   But, as two recent publications demonstrate, our ability to recognize patterns—and their underlying causes—may be dramatically increasing with the development of technology that can centralize, organize and manipulate enormous amounts of information.

The two studies were highlighted in The Economist, and both of them offer conclusions that are likely to spark lively debate. Dr. Michael Dunn, from the Netherlands’ Max Planck Institute for Psycholinguistics, published a paper in Nature magazine addressing word-order dependencies—the idea that, for example, if a given language places verbs before objects (eat lunch) it will also place prepositions before nouns (at home). By comparing different languages, linguists have found that there are some strong consistencies in these dependencies, indicating that they are the result of “underlying cognitive or systems biases.” Dr. Dunn, however, has used large databases of basic vocabularies and statistical methods borrowed from evolutionary biology to approach the problem of dependencies in a different way:

To substitute for fossils, and thus reconstruct the ancient branches of the tree as well as the modern-day leaves, Dr Dunn used mathematically informed guesswork. The maths in question is called the Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) method. As its name suggests, this spins the software equivalent of a roulette wheel to generate a random tree, then examines how snugly the branches of that tree fit the modern foliage. It then spins the wheel again, to tweak the first tree ever so slightly, at random. If the new tree is a better fit for the leaves, it is taken as the starting point for the next spin. If not, the process takes a step back to the previous best fit. The wheel whirrs millions of times until such random tweaking has no discernible effect on the outcome.

When Dr Dunn fed the languages he had chosen into the MCMC casino, the result was several hundred equally probable family trees. Next, he threw eight grammatical features, all related to word order, into the mix, and ran the game again.

He found that particular word-order traits were not necessarily linked to others in the way that current theories propose. Rather, such dependencies seemed to be ‘lineage-specific,’ suggesting that they have been passed down through language families. “Nurture, in other words, rather than nature,” as The Economist put it.

The other article, published in Science by Dr. Quentin Atkinson of the University of Auckland, also uses statistics and databases in an innovative way. He looked at information from the World Atlas of Language Structures on sounds in different languages and found that phonemic diversity (the number of sounds used in a language) decreases as you follow the pathways of human migration outwards from central/southern Africa. The Science article argues that modern language originated in that part of Africa and that phonemic diversity decreased with every stage of human expansion as small groups of people set off in search of new territory.

Both of these studies utilize phylogenetic language groupings, based on evolutionary theory, and they run statistical analyses with large amounts of data made available by central repositories of linguistic information, such as the World Atlas of Language Structures. The Long Now Foundation’s Rosetta Project is an effort to improve and facilitate that very sort of creative methodology—to organize and make available large amounts of data so that researchers can develop fundamentally new methods of inquiry.

Carl Zimmer Ticket Info

Published on Monday, May 9th, 02011 by Austin Brown

The Long Now Foundation’s monthly

Seminars About Long-term Thinking

Carl Zimmer on Viral Time

Carl Zimmer on “Viral Time”

TICKETS

Tuesday June 7, 02011 at 7:30pm Cowell Theater at Fort Mason

Long Now Members can reserve 2 seats, join today! • General Tickets $10

About this Seminar:

The frontier of biology these days is the genetics and ecology of bacteria, and the frontier of THAT is what’s being learned about viruses. “The science of virology is still in its early, wild days,” writes Carl Zimmer. “Scientists are discovering viruses faster than they can make sense of them.” The Earth’s atmosphere is determined in large part by ocean bacteria; every day viruses kill half of them. Every year in the oceans, viruses transfer a trillion trillion genes between host organisms. They evolve faster than anything else, and they are a major engine of the evolution of the rest of life. Our own bodies are made up of 10 trillion human cells, 100 trillion bacteria, and 4 trillion very busy viruses. Some of them kill us. Many of them help us. Some of them are us. Viral time is ancient and blindingly fast.

Science journalist Carl Zimmer’s new book, A Planet of Viruses, is the best introduction to the subject. His previous books include Parasite Rex and Microcosm.

Gravity Probe B Confirms Einstein’s Predictions

Published on Monday, May 9th, 02011 by Austin Brown

Gravity Probe B is a satellite that, since 02004, has been conducting an experiment first conceived half a century ago with the goal of testing a theory developed another half-century before that.

Indeed, some of the predictions to come out of Albert Einstein’s Theory of Relativity have taken until now – a century later – to test. Nonetheless, frame dragging has been observed and confirmed.

Wondering what took so long? The New York Times explains that the theory had largely been supported by observations of the planets, the Moon and other satellites, but that direct observation of such a subtle effect required some of the most sensitive instruments and precisely machines objects in history.

To measure these minuscule warps in the very fabric of spacetime, Gravity Probe B used the world’s most perfect gyroscopes, monitored by the most precise gyro-monitors, kept directly oriented to a ‘guide-star’ using a telescope and an Attitude and Translation Control system, all maintained at exactly -455.5 degrees F for 16 months while it orbited the earth in a 400-mile high polar orbit.

More on the gyroscopes:

To measure the minuscule angles predicted by Einstein’s theory, the GP-B team needed to build a near-perfect gyroscope—one whose spin axis would not drift away from its starting point by more than one hundred-billionth of a degree each hour that it was spinning. By comparison, the spin-axis drift in the most sophisticated Earth-based gyroscopes, found in high-tech aircraft and nuclear submarines, is seven orders of magnitude (more than ten million times) greater than GP-B could allow.

The rest of the satellite and it’s mission are documented in luxurious detail on the project’s website.

Long Now Media Update

Published on Friday, May 6th, 02011 by Austin Brown

Podcasts

LISTEN


(downloads tab)

Tim Flannery’s “Here on Earth”

There is new media available from our monthly series, the Seminars About Long-term Thinking. Stewart Brand’s summaries and audio downloads or podcasts of the talks are free to the public; Long Now members can view HD video of the Seminars and comment on them.

Aspen Environment Forum 02011

Published on Thursday, May 5th, 02011 by Austin Brown

The Aspen Environment Forum is a three day conference produced by the Aspen Institute and the National Geographic Society. Held this year from May 30th through June 2nd, the forum “will provide a critical framework for committed voices to address a significant milestone:  A global population of 7 billion and how to reconcile Earth’s finite resources with its ability to sustain our expanding human needs.”

This year’s speakers include Sylvia Earle, Andrew Revkin, Bill McKibben,  and Long Now’s own Stewart Brand.

Here’s a highlight from 2009 (check out more video highlights here) featuring Nature Conservancy lead scientist M. Sanjayan:

General passes to the Aspen Environment Forum cost $1,500, but Long Now Members have been offered a discounted price – members can send an email to services@longnow.org for more information.

Tim Flannery, “Here on Earth”

Published on Wednesday, May 4th, 02011 by Stewart Brand

Podcasts

Wallace beats Darwin

A Summary by Stewart Brand

The great insight of natural selection was published simultaneously by Charles Darwin and Alfred Russell Wallace in 1858, Flannery pointed out, but their interpretations of the insight then diverged.

Darwin’s harsh view of “survival of the fittest” led too easily to social Darwinism, eugenics societies, neo-classical economics, and an overly reductionist focus on the “selfish gene.” Wallace, by contrast, focused on the tendency of evolution to generate…

Read the rest of Stewart Brand’s Summary here.

The Hourglass

Published on Tuesday, May 3rd, 02011 by Alex Mensing

This video documents Australian designer Marc Newson’s (Ikepod) modern take on the hourglass in the Glaskeller factory at Basel, Switzerland. It was directed by Philip Andelman and was featured as part of our “Long Shorts” series of short films that convey long term thinking. This Long Short was screened at Tim Flannery’s “Here On Earth” SALT.

The Hourglass from Ikepod on Vimeo.

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