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Blog Archive for the ‘Futures’ Category

All Watched Over By Machines of Loving Grace

by Alexander Rose - Twitter: @zander on September 27th, 02007

 At the Singularity Summit earlier this month I came to see Paul Saffo’s talk.  Famed as a forecaster and future thinker, I was expecting to hear what lay ahead in the world as the steepness of the technology curve continues towards cliff like proportions.  Instead all were treated to a reminder that our new future…  Read More

We are all temporal chauvinists now

by Stuart Candy on September 13th, 02007

Last month I came across an interesting Long Now-flavoured idea in an unexpected context, a feature article in Honolulu Weekly about agricultural tourism on the Hawaiian island of Maui. In it, farmer Richard Clark points out that humans, with an average lifespan of 70 plus years, are “temporal chauvinists” who like to use solar years…  Read More

Global Dimming

by Alexander Rose - Twitter: @zander on September 6th, 02007

This documentary by the BBC on Global Dimming is probably the most alarming global climate issue I have seen to date (and I was reminded of it this morning as the sun was dimmed from a local fire). It points out the simple long term agricultural measurements that show the amount of sunlight hitting the…  Read More

Singularity Summit

by Alexander Rose - Twitter: @zander on August 16th, 02007

On September 8-9 the Singularity Summit will be at the Palace of Fine Arts. One of Long Now’s board, Paul Saffo, will be speaking. From their website: The Singularity Institute for Artificial Intelligence is thrilled to announce the Singularity Summit 2007, a major two-day event bringing together 17 outstanding thinkers to examine a historical moment…  Read More

Future Shock

by Alexander Rose - Twitter: @zander on August 15th, 02007

I have recently been impressed by all the ad campaigns that keenly visualize a possible future. As Kevin Kelly points out in an earlier post, we humans are pretty good at discounting the future, and these shocking images can be a bit of an antidote. The most impressive by far of these ad campaigns is…  Read More

Six Rules for Effective Forecasting

by Alexander Rose - Twitter: @zander on August 7th, 02007

An amazingly in depth article by Long Now board member Paul Saffo on the intracacies of Forecasting appeared in the July 07 Harvard Business Review. The whole issue entitled Going The Distance is about long term thinking in the business realm and is highly recommended. Below are some highlights of Paul’s forcasting article… The goal…  Read More

Open Source Bets

by Stephanie Gerson on July 30th, 02007

For the past few years Chris Hibbert has been working on Zócalo, an Open Source Toolkit for Prediction Markets. He writes, “my purpose in the project is to build prediction market software that people can use as a foundation for deploying many markets of this type. As I said in my proposal to CommerceNet, the…  Read More

Harry Potter and the Prophecy of Prediction Markets

by Kevin Kelly on July 20th, 02007

Prediction markets can use the signals in both greed and the wisdom of the crowds to forecast. Some people are using their coin to vote for the final end of Harry Potter. As this graph from NewsFutures shows, there’s a 75% chance he’ll live. © NewsFutures Come back tomorrow to see how accurate this short…  Read More

Catastrophe a good bet?

by Stuart Candy on July 6th, 02007

photo of flooded Thames by elyob The Long Now’s Long Bets project asks us, active bettors and wider public alike, to think more deeply and carefully about the medium- to long-term future than our assumptions (and busy schedules) might otherwise allow. Nudging our culture towards assuming greater responsibility for addressing (and creating) possible futures is…  Read More

“The Iraq Gamble”

by Stuart Candy on July 4th, 02007

Philip Tetlock (screen shot from high-res Seminar video available to members) Philip Tetlock recently presented a Seminar About Long-Term Thinking to the effect that confident forecasters ought to be ignored. Despite his research showing the profound unreliability of such speculation, it’s rare to find even a moderately systematic evaluation of political forecasts in the popular…  Read More