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Blog Archive for the ‘Long Bets’ Category

China’s Unthinkable Population Problem

by Austin Brown on June 22nd, 02011

In his post earlier today, Bryan Campen mentioned Kevin Kelly’s 02019 Unthinkables – a set of predictions he made in 1999 that were specifically meant to be outlandish or – eponymously – unthinkable. With 12 years of perspective on the predictions, Kelly concludes his post by saying that he doesn’t think any of them will…  Read More

The Warren Buffett-hedge fund bet tightens

by Austin Brown on April 27th, 02011

In 02008, Warren Buffet placed a Long Bet that will take until 02017 to resolve. He predicted that for those ten years, “the S & P 500 will outperform a portfolio of funds of hedge funds, when performance is measured on a basis net of fees, costs and expenses.“ Below is a summary of how…  Read More

Long Bet on Peak Travel

by Austin Brown on January 10th, 02011

One of the miracles of the modern world is our capacity for getting around – hop on a plane, nap a few hours, and you’re on the other side of a continent!  Technologically enabled, we’ve embraced this ability with gusto and are currently more mobile a species than ever before.  But, according to a pair…  Read More

Is Kurzweil’s future arriving?

by Alexander Rose - Twitter: @zander on November 30th, 02010

John Rennie over at IEEE Spectrum has an excellent article on Ray Kurzweil’s 108 predictions for 02009 from his book Age of Spiritual Machines.  Ray Kurzweil is an avid and fearless predictor who also logged the first of our Long Bets with Mitch Kapor.  I think it is great that people are taking the time…  Read More

Futurestates: watch, predict the future

by Austin Brown on October 5th, 02010

I just happened upon a call for extras (check it out if you’re based in San Francisco) for a film that will be part of a series of sci-fi shorts called Futurestates: What will become of America in five, 25, or even 50 years from today? FUTURESTATES is a series of 11 fictional mini-features exploring possible future…  Read More

The qubits entangle

by Alexander Rose - Twitter: @zander on October 2nd, 02010

Nature reports quantum computing researchers achieve “success at entangling three-circuit systems”. “The entanglement of two or more qubits sets up a ‘superposition’ of states in which calculations can run in parallel — in principle allowing a quantum computer to race through problems that it would take a classical computer eons to solve. Such a quantum…  Read More

How good are our predictions of the next 30 years?

by Alexander Rose - Twitter: @zander on May 6th, 02010

Stewart Brand sent in a piece by the Klimazweibel blog covered by Seekerblog.  It shows where the actual US energy consumption came in by 02000 vs the predictions from 01975.  It is interesting to see that we came in well below the lowest (read: most optimistic) prediction.  While the US still uses an amount of…  Read More

Buffett’s longest bet looking better

by Alexander Rose - Twitter: @zander on April 27th, 02010

The second year’s results on Buffett’s Million Dollar Long Bet are in.  Article from Fortune Magazine below: By Carol J. Loomis, senior editor-at-large. April 27, 2010: 9:34 AM ET (Fortune) — Unaudited results are in for the second year of “Buffett’s Big Bet” — Warren Buffett’s 2008 wager against Protégé Partners that a low-fee index…  Read More

Long Bets in 02010

by Alexander Rose - Twitter: @zander on December 31st, 02009

Long Bets to be decided in 02010

Failed Predictions

by Alexander Rose - Twitter: @zander on December 3rd, 02009

Stewart brand set over this excellently illustrated set of failed predictions listed over at oddee.com. Excerpts below: “It will be years –not in my time– before a woman will become Prime Minister.” –Margaret Thatcher, October 26th, 1969. She became Prime Minister of the United Kingdom only 10 years after saying that, holding her chair from…  Read More