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	<title>Long Views: The Long Now Blog &#187; Long Term Science</title>
	<atom:link href="http://blog.longnow.org/category/long-term-science/feed/" rel="self" type="application/rss+xml" />
	<link>http://blog.longnow.org</link>
	<description>The Official Weblog of The Long Now Foundation and Friends</description>
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		<title>Building an Audio Collection for All the World&#8217;s Languages</title>
		<link>http://blog.longnow.org/2010/07/21/building-an-audio-collection-for-all-the-worlds-languages/</link>
		<comments>http://blog.longnow.org/2010/07/21/building-an-audio-collection-for-all-the-worlds-languages/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Wed, 21 Jul 2010 20:09:33 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Laine Stranahan</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Long Term Science]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Rosetta]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Technology]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://blog.longnow.org/?p=2811</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[The Rosetta Project is pleased to announce the Parallel Speech Corpus Project, a year-long volunteer-based effort to collect parallel recordings in languages representing at least 95% of the world&#8217;s speakers. The resulting corpus will include audio recordings in hundreds of languages of the same set of texts, each accompanied by a transcription. This will provide [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><a href="http://www.rosettaproject.org">The Rosetta Project</a> is pleased to announce the <em>Parallel Speech Corpus Project</em>, a year-long volunteer-based effort to collect parallel recordings in languages representing at least 95% of the world&#8217;s speakers. The resulting corpus will include audio recordings in hundreds of languages of the same set of texts, each accompanied by a transcription.  This will provide a platform for creating new educational and preservation-oriented tools as well as technologies that may one day allow artificial systems to comprehend, translate, and generate them.</p>
<p>Huge text and speech corpora of varying degrees of structure <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Text_corpus#Some_notable_text_corpora">already exist</a> for many of the most widely spoken languages in the world&#8212;English is probably the most extensively documented, followed by other majority languages like Russian, Spanish, and Portuguese. Given some degree of access to these corpora (though many are not publicly accessible), research, education and preservation efforts in <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_languages_by_number_of_native_speakers#More_than_100_million_native_speakers">the ten languages</a> which represent 50% of the world&#8217;s speakers (Mandarin, Spanish, English, Hindi, Urdu, Arabic, Bengali, Portuguese, Russian and Japanese) can be relatively well-resourced.</p>
<p>But what about the other half of the world? The next 290 most widely spoken languages account for another 45% of the population, and the remaining 6,500 or so are spoken by only 5%&#8211;this latter group representing the &#8220;long tail&#8221; of human languages:</p>
<p><img src="http://media.longnow.org/files/2/Long_Tail_of_Languages.jpg" alt="Long_Tail_of_Languages.jpg" /></p>
<p>Equal documentation of all the world&#8217;s languages is an enormous challenge, especially in light of the tremendous quantity and diversity represented by the long tail. The Parallel Speech Corpus Project will take a first step toward universal documentation of all human languages, with the goal of providing documentation of the top 300 and providing a model that can then be extended out to the long tail. Eventually, researchers, educators and engineers alike should have access to every living human language, creating new opportunities for expanding knowledge and technology alike and helping to preserve our threatened diversity.</p>
<p>This project is made possible through the support and sponsorship of speech technology expert <a href="http://www.lti.cs.cmu.edu/Faculty/JimBakerHome.htm">James Baker</a> and will be developed in partnership with his <a href="http://www.icisl.org/">ALLOW</a> initiative.  We will be putting out a call for volunteers soon.  In the meantime, please contact rosetta@longnow.org with questions or suggestions.</p>
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		<title>Malaria Through Millennia</title>
		<link>http://blog.longnow.org/2010/07/15/malaria-through-millennia/</link>
		<comments>http://blog.longnow.org/2010/07/15/malaria-through-millennia/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Fri, 16 Jul 2010 03:26:15 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Camron Assadi - Twitter: @teiwaz</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Long Term Science]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Long Term Thinking]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://blog.longnow.org/?p=2753</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[&#8220;The malaria parasite has been responsible for half of all human deaths since the Stone Age&#8221; is the quote that jumped off the page in a recent article by Sonia Shah in the Wall Street Journal. Entitled &#8220;The Tenacious Buzz of Malaria&#8221; the article places malaria in a long term perspective: Malaria has shaped our [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><strong>&#8220;The malaria parasite has been responsible for half of all human deaths since the Stone Age&#8221;</strong> is the quote that jumped off the page in a <a href="http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748704111704575354911834340450.html">recent article</a> by Sonia Shah in the Wall Street Journal.</p>
<p style="text-align: center;"><img src="http://phil.cdc.gov/PHIL_Images/7861/7861_lores.jpg" alt="A female Anopheles albimanus having dinner" /></p>
<p>Entitled &#8220;<a href="http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748704111704575354911834340450.html">The Tenacious Buzz of Malaria</a>&#8221; the article places <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Malaria">malaria</a> in a long term perspective:</p>
<blockquote><p>Malaria has shaped our trade and settlement patterns, and our demographics. Today, it sickens 300 million every year, and kills nearly 1 million, despite the fact that we&#8217;ve known how to cure it (with parasite-killing drugs) and prevent it (by avoiding mosquito bites) for over a century. And even as the fight against malaria gains momentum, research reveals that malaria&#8217;s tentacles continue to dig ever deeper.</p>
<p>Part of malaria&#8217;s wicked genius is that since ancient times, it has fooled us into thinking it is a trivial problem, easily solved. Diseases such as yellow fever, or plague, or polio, have always filled us with dread. But not malaria. Almost all of our attempts to squelch it, from thousands of years ago to today, have treated the disease as a weak foe, allowing malaria to flourish, nearly unchecked, to this day.</p></blockquote>
<p>From low tech solutions like <a href="http://www.nothingbutnets.net/">bed nets</a> to high tech <a href="http://www.intellectualventures.com/OurInventions/MalariaProject.aspx">lasers that shoot mosquitoes in mid air</a>, and many <a href="http://www.who.int/topics/malaria/en/">international programs against malaria</a> and the development of a <a href="http://www.malariavaccine.org/">vaccine</a>, humans continue to work to fight the disease. But as the article states, &#8220;We&#8217;ve all been underestimating malaria for millennia.&#8221;</p>
<p>Sonia Shah is the author of a newly published book, <a href="http://www.amazon.com/Fever-Malaria-Ruled-Humankind-Years/dp/0374230013">The Fever: How Malaria Has Ruled Humankind for 500,000 Years</a>.</p>
<p><em>Photo credit: James Gathany, CDC</em></p>
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		<title>Ancient Cosmic Light</title>
		<link>http://blog.longnow.org/2010/07/14/ancient-cosmic-light/</link>
		<comments>http://blog.longnow.org/2010/07/14/ancient-cosmic-light/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Wed, 14 Jul 2010 11:00:28 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Austin Brown</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Long Term Science]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Technology]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[The Big Here]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://blog.longnow.org/?p=2711</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[The European Space Agency has released an amazing new image of our universe, created by the recently launched Planck mission.  The image above comes from Planck&#8217;s first detailed survey of the cosmic microwave background, the universe&#8217;s &#8220;first light.&#8221; It is the light that was finally allowed to move out across space once a post-Big-Bang Universe [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p style="text-align: center;"><a href="http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/science_and_environment/10501154.stm" target="_blank"><img class="size-full wp-image-2712 aligncenter" title="1galactic_regions_786" src="http://blog.longnow.org/wp-content/uploads/2010/07/1galactic_regions_786.gif" alt="1galactic_regions_786" width="707" height="378" /></a></p>
<p>The <a href="http://www.esa.int/esaCP/index.html" target="_blank">European Space Agency</a> has released an amazing new image of our universe, created by the  recently launched <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Planck_%28spacecraft%29" target="_blank">Planck mission</a>.  The image above comes from Planck&#8217;s  first detailed survey of the cosmic microwave background, the universe&#8217;s  &#8220;first light.&#8221;</p>
<blockquote><p>It  is the light that was finally allowed to move out across space once a  post-Big-Bang Universe had cooled sufficiently to permit the formation  of hydrogen atoms.</p>
<p>Before that time, scientists say, the cosmos would have been so hot that matter and radiation would have been &#8220;coupled&#8221; &#8211; the  Universe would have been opaque.</p></blockquote>
<p>Planck is funded to create four of these  surveys, each more precise than the last:</p>
<blockquote><p>&#8220;We know that  eventually as the data get better and better, what you end up getting to  are the limitations of what you know about the instrument,&#8221; explained  Professor Jaffe.</p>
<p>&#8220;And so, by running Planck for longer we can learn a lot more  about the instrument itself and thereby remove a lot of the  contaminating effects that are just because of the way it produces its  noise.&#8221;</p>
<p style="text-align: right;">(<a href="http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/science_and_environment/10501154.stm" target="_blank">BBC</a> via <a href="http://longnow.org/people/board/prospect4/">Brian Eno</a>)</p>
</blockquote>
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		<title>The woman that programmed the first computer</title>
		<link>http://blog.longnow.org/2010/06/17/the-woman-that-programmed-the-first-computer/</link>
		<comments>http://blog.longnow.org/2010/06/17/the-woman-that-programmed-the-first-computer/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Thu, 17 Jun 2010 15:57:38 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Alexander Rose - Twitter: @zander</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA["Long Shorts"]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Clock of the Long Now]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Long Term Science]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://blog.longnow.org/?p=2449</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[&#8220;Long Shorts&#8221; &#8211; short films that exemplify long-term thinking.  Please submit yours in the comments section&#8230; Information Pioneers: Ada Lovelace from Information Pioneers on Vimeo. This is a nice intro to Ada Lovelace, the first computer programmer who wrote programs for Babbage&#8217;s mechanical computer. While this computer is similar to the binary mechanical computer used [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><em>&#8220;Long Shorts&#8221; &#8211; short films that exemplify long-term thinking.   Please submit yours in the comments section&#8230;</em></p>
<p><object classid="clsid:d27cdb6e-ae6d-11cf-96b8-444553540000" width="500" height="281" codebase="http://download.macromedia.com/pub/shockwave/cabs/flash/swflash.cab#version=6,0,40,0"><param name="allowfullscreen" value="true" /><param name="allowscriptaccess" value="always" /><param name="src" value="http://vimeo.com/moogaloop.swf?clip_id=11923950&amp;server=vimeo.com&amp;show_title=0&amp;show_byline=0&amp;show_portrait=0&amp;color=00ADEF&amp;fullscreen=1" /><embed type="application/x-shockwave-flash" width="500" height="281" src="http://vimeo.com/moogaloop.swf?clip_id=11923950&amp;server=vimeo.com&amp;show_title=0&amp;show_byline=0&amp;show_portrait=0&amp;color=00ADEF&amp;fullscreen=1" allowscriptaccess="always" allowfullscreen="true"></embed></object></p>
<p><a href="http://vimeo.com/11923950">Information Pioneers: Ada Lovelace</a> from <a href="http://vimeo.com/user3807118">Information Pioneers</a> on <a href="http://vimeo.com">Vimeo</a>.</p>
<p>This is a nice intro to Ada Lovelace, the first computer programmer who wrote programs for Babbage&#8217;s mechanical computer.  While this computer is similar to the binary mechanical computer used in the first 10,000 Year Clock prototype, Babbage&#8217;s computers are decimal based.</p>
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		<title>Oldest Leather Shoe Discovered</title>
		<link>http://blog.longnow.org/2010/06/15/oldest-leather-shoe-discovered/</link>
		<comments>http://blog.longnow.org/2010/06/15/oldest-leather-shoe-discovered/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Tue, 15 Jun 2010 11:33:39 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Austin Brown</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Long Term Science]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://blog.longnow.org/?p=2421</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[There&#8217;s a great story bouncing around &#8211; a shoe was found in an Armenian cave.  Not just any shoe, of course.  It&#8217;s about five and a half thousand years old.  It&#8217;s the oldest leather shoe ever found, predating Ötzi the Iceman&#8216;s footwear by about 300 years. It is objects like this that always remind us [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2010/06/10/science/10shoe.html?adxnnl=1&amp;adxnnlx=1276189296-JXV/gG2/30RAUMZsPsn7Bg" target="_blank"><img class="alignleft size-full wp-image-2422" title="10shoe_337_span-articleLarge-v2" src="http://blog.longnow.org/wp-content/uploads/2010/06/10shoe_337_span-articleLarge-v2.jpg" alt="10shoe_337_span-articleLarge-v2" width="600" height="262" /></a></p>
<p>There&#8217;s a great story bouncing around &#8211; a shoe was found in an Armenian cave.  Not just any shoe, of course.  It&#8217;s about <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2010/06/10/science/10shoe.html?adxnnl=1&amp;adxnnlx=1276189296-JXV/gG2/30RAUMZsPsn7Bg" target="_blank">five and a half thousand years old</a>.  It&#8217;s the oldest leather shoe ever found, predating <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/%C3%96tzi_the_Iceman" target="_blank">Ötzi the Iceman</a>&#8216;s footwear by about 300 years.</p>
<p>It is objects like this that always remind us when doing a lot of research around materials for the Clock, that given the right environment (in this case freezing) just about any material could last 10,000 years.</p>
<p>(via <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2010/06/10/science/10shoe.html?adxnnl=1&amp;adxnnlx=1276189296-JXV/gG2/30RAUMZsPsn7Bg" target="_blank">New York Times</a>)</p>
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		<title>Ancient Beers</title>
		<link>http://blog.longnow.org/2010/06/14/ancient-beers/</link>
		<comments>http://blog.longnow.org/2010/06/14/ancient-beers/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Mon, 14 Jun 2010 11:50:43 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Austin Brown</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Long Term Science]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Long Term Thinking]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://blog.longnow.org/?p=2387</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Beer is as old as civilization itself and Dogfish Head Craft Brewery is giving you a chance to try some of the oldest known brews.  Scientific American gives us this story on three ancient reconstituted recipes by Dogfish Head.  The unexpected fruit of molecular anthropology, these beer recipes come from chemical analyses of ancient pottery. [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><a href="http://www.scientificamerican.com/blog/post.cfm?id=9000-year-old-brew-hitting-the-shel-2009-06-05" target="_blank"><img class="alignleft size-full wp-image-2388" title="16thCenturyBrewer" src="http://blog.longnow.org/wp-content/uploads/2010/06/16thCenturyBrewer.jpg" alt="16thCenturyBrewer" width="299" height="383" /></a></p>
<p><a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/History_of_beer" target="_blank">Beer is as old as civilization itself</a> and <a href="http://www.dogfish.com/" target="_blank">Dogfish Head Craft Brewery</a> is giving you a chance to try some of the oldest known brews.  Scientific American gives us <a href="http://www.scientificamerican.com/blog/post.cfm?id=9000-year-old-brew-hitting-the-shel-2009-06-05" target="_blank">this story</a> on three ancient reconstituted recipes by Dogfish Head.  The unexpected fruit of molecular anthropology, these beer recipes come from chemical analyses of ancient pottery.</p>
<p>If you&#8217;ve a taste for vintage, there&#8217;s also <a href="http://blog.longnow.org/2008/09/24/45-million-year-old-beer/" target="_blank">a beer</a> made with 45 million year old yeast that was harvested from a weevil trapped in fossilized amber!</p>
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		<title>Slow Science</title>
		<link>http://blog.longnow.org/2010/04/26/slow-science/</link>
		<comments>http://blog.longnow.org/2010/04/26/slow-science/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Tue, 27 Apr 2010 04:58:32 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Alexander Rose - Twitter: @zander</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Long Term Science]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://blog.longnow.org/?p=2037</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Since its inception in 01979 programs like the Long Term Ecological Research Network have been selecting and tracking ecological sites to be monitored over the long-term.   The NSF funded LTER network  hopes to codify what usually occurs by accident in science.  For instance the &#8220;Keeling Curve&#8220;, which was one of the first bits of scientific [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><a href="http://www.lternet.edu/vignettes/mcm.html"><img class="aligncenter" title="LTER title" src="http://www.lternet.edu/images/ltermain.jpg" alt="" width="550" height="92" /></a></p>
<p>Since its inception in 01979 programs like the <a href="http://www.lternet.edu/vignettes/arc.html" target="_blank">Long Term Ecological Research Network</a> have been selecting and tracking ecological sites to be monitored over the long-term.   The NSF funded LTER network  hopes to codify what usually occurs by accident in science.  For instance the &#8220;<a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Keeling_Curve" target="_blank">Keeling Curve</a>&#8220;, which was one of the first bits of scientific proof about baseline atmospheric carbon, was not found on purpose.  The Keeling curve was discovered as part of a control for another experiment on volcanism.</p>
<p>However it is only when we do the the same boring non-sexy data collection year after year, that we might see trends that only appear after decades or centuries.  This is difficult science to keep going on an ongoing basis, and it is great to see it getting done.  It is also worth pointing out that other institutions are doing &#8220;slow science&#8221; like<a href="http://www.stri.org/english/about_stri/index.php" target="_blank"> The Smithsonian&#8217;s Tropical Research Institute</a> which has been studying a chunk of Panama for almost 90 continuous years.  We also now have over 50 years of <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pan_evaporation" target="_blank">Pan Evaporation Data</a> thanks to the agriculture industry, which is leading to startling new realizations about the <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Global_dimming" target="_blank">global dimming effect</a>.</p>
<p>There is also a lot of science being done that would be great to make into slow science.  For instance the many chapters of the <a href="http://www.surfrider.org/" target="_blank">Surfrider Foundation</a> collect all kinds of data about the toxicity of ocean water in sites all around the world.  Yet as far as I know they are not saving this data for posterity, as they are primarily concerned with how toxic the water is at a given moment. But just think how fantastic it would be to have that data from 100 or 1000 years ago?</p>
<p>I would love to hear about other &#8220;slow science&#8221; projects and collect them here.  Either ones that are going on, or data that you would like to see collected over the long-term like the Surfrider example.  So please use the comments field to suggest others.</p>
<p style="text-align: center;"><img class="aligncenter" title="pitch drop" src="http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/6/62/University_of_Queensland_Pitch_drop_experiment-6-2.jpg/150px-University_of_Queensland_Pitch_drop_experiment-6-2.jpg" alt="" width="150" height="226" /></p>
<p>Listing of Slow Science experiments (thanks for the additions!):</p>
<ul>
<li><a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pitch_drop_experiment" target="_blank">Pitch Drop Experiment</a></li>
<li><a href="http://www.lternet.edu/vignettes/arc.html" target="_blank">Long Term Ecological  Research Network</a></li>
<li><a href="http://www.stri.org/english/about_stri/index.php" target="_blank">The  Smithsonian&#8217;s Tropical Research Institute</a></li>
<li><a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pan_evaporation" target="_blank">Pan Evaporation Data</a></li>
<li><a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Keeling_Curve" target="_blank">Keeling CO2 measurements</a></li>
<li>(added) <a href="http://www.audubon.org/bird/cbc/" target="_blank">Audubon Christmas Bird Count</a></li>
<li>(added) <a href="http://www.framinghamheartstudy.org/" target="_blank">Framingham Heart Study</a></li>
<li>(added) <a href="http://www.sdss.org/" target="_blank">Sloan Digital Sky Survey </a></li>
<li>(added) <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Oxford_Electric_Bell" target="_blank">The Oxford Electric Bell</a></li>
<li>(added) <a href="http://www.rothamsted.bbsrc.ac.uk/Research/Centres/Content.php?Section=Resources&amp;Page=ClassicalExperiments" target="_blank">Rothamsted crop rotation experiments</a></li>
<li>(added) <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Beverly_Clock" target="_blank">The Beverly Clock</a></li>
<li>(added) <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Up_Series" target="_blank">Up Series</a> (more art than science, but in the same realm)</li>
</ul>
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		<title>Debt: The first five thousand years</title>
		<link>http://blog.longnow.org/2010/04/22/debt-the-first-five-thousand-years/</link>
		<comments>http://blog.longnow.org/2010/04/22/debt-the-first-five-thousand-years/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Thu, 22 Apr 2010 19:58:59 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Alexander Rose - Twitter: @zander</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Long Term Science]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Long Term Thinking]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://blog.longnow.org/?p=2039</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Anthropologist David Graeber recently sent in his essay on the 5000 year history of debt (orignally published in Mute and Eurozine).  Aside from being an interesting read in general, this effort (which he is just now finishing as a book) is an interesting resource for the Eternal Coin and the Long Finance project. Debt: The [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><a href="http://www.eurozine.com/articles/2009-08-20-graeber-en.html"><img class="aligncenter" title="debters prison" src="http://www.eurozine.com/UserFiles/illustrations/graeber_460w.gif" alt="" width="460" height="381" /></a></p>
<p>Anthropologist David Graeber recently sent in his essay on the 5000 year history of debt (orignally published in <a href="http://www.eurozine.com/articles/2009-08-20-graeber-en.html" target="_blank">Mute and Eurozine</a>).  Aside from being an interesting read in general, this effort (which he is just now finishing as a book) is an interesting resource for the <a href="http://www.gresham.ac.uk/event.asp?PageId=45&amp;EventId=1019">Eternal Coin and the Long Finance project</a>.</p>
<p><strong>Debt: The first five thousand years by David Graeber</strong></p>
<blockquote>
<div>Throughout its 5000 year history, debt has always  involved institutions – whether Mesopotamian sacred kingship, Mosaic  jubilees, Sharia or Canon Law – that place controls on debt&#8217;s  potentially catastrophic social consequences. It is only in the current  era, writes anthropologist David Graeber, that we have begun to see the  creation of the first effective planetary administrative system largely  in order to protect the interests of creditors.</div>
</blockquote>
<div id="body">
<p>What follows is a fragment of a much larger project of research on debt  and debt money in human history. The first and overwhelming conclusion  of this project is that in studying economic history, we tend to  systematically ignore the role of violence, the absolutely central role  of war and slavery in creating and shaping the basic institutions of  what we now call &#8220;the economy&#8221;. What&#8217;s more, origins matter. The  violence may be invisible, but it remains inscribed in the very logic of  our economic common sense, in the apparently self-evident nature of  institutions that simply would never and could never exist outside of  the monopoly of violence – but also, the systematic threat of violence –  maintained by the contemporary state.<br />
<span id="more-2039"></span><br />
Let me start with the institution of slavery, whose role, I think, is  key. In most times and places, slavery is seen as a consequence of war.  Sometimes most slaves actually are war captives, sometimes they are not,  but almost invariably, war is seen as the foundation and justification  of the institution. If you surrender in war, what you surrender is your  life; your conqueror has the right to kill you, and often will. If he  chooses not to, you literally owe your life to him; a debt conceived as  absolute, infinite, irredeemable. He can in principle extract anything  he wants, and all debts – obligations – you may owe to others (your  friends, family, former political allegiances), or that others owe you,  are seen as being absolutely negated. Your debt to your owner is all  that now exists.</p>
<p>This sort of logic has at least two very interesting consequences,  though they might be said to pull in rather contrary directions. First  of all, as we all know, it is another typical – perhaps defining –  feature of slavery that slaves can be bought or sold. In this case,  absolute debt becomes (in another context, that of the market) no longer  absolute. In fact, it can be precisely quantified. There is good reason  to believe that it was just this operation that made it possible to  create something like our contemporary form of money to begin with,  since what anthropologists used to refer to as &#8220;primitive money&#8221;, the  kind that one finds in stateless societies (Solomon Island feather  money, Iroquois wampum), was mostly used to arrange marriages, resolve  blood feuds, and fiddle with other sorts of relations between people,  rather than to buy and sell commodities. For instance, if slavery is  debt, then debt can lead to slavery. A Babylonian peasant might have  paid a handy sum in silver to his wife&#8217;s parents to officialise the  marriage, but he in no sense owned her. He certainly couldn&#8217;t buy or  sell the mother of his children. But all that would change if he took  out a loan. Were he to default, his creditors could first remove his  sheep and furniture, then his house, fields and orchards, and finally  take his wife, children, and even himself as debt peons until the matter  was settled (which, as his resources vanished, of course became  increasingly difficult to do). Debt was the hinge that made it possible  to imagine money in anything like the modern sense, and therefore, also,  to produce what we like to call the market: an arena where anything can  be bought and sold, because all objects are (like slaves) disembedded  from their former social relations and exist only in relation to money.</p>
<p>But at the same time the logic of debt as conquest can, as I mentioned,  pull another way. Kings, throughout history, tend to be profoundly  ambivalent towards allowing the logic of debt to get completely out of  hand. This is not because they are hostile to markets. On the contrary,  they normally encourage them, for the simple reason that governments  find it inconvenient to levy everything they need (silks, chariot  wheels, flamingo tongues, lapis lazuli) directly from their subject  population; it&#8217;s much easier to encourage markets and then buy them.  Early markets often followed armies or royal entourages, or formed near  palaces or at the fringes of military posts. This actually helps explain  the rather puzzling behaviour on the part of royal courts: after all,  since kings usually controlled the gold and silver mines, what exactly  was the point of stamping bits of the stuff with your face on it,  dumping it on the civilian population, and then demanding they give it  back to you again as taxes? It only makes sense if levying taxes was  really a way to force everyone to acquire coins, so as to facilitate the  rise of markets, since markets were convenient to have around. However,  for our present purposes, the critical question is: how were these  taxes justified? Why did subjects owe them, what debt were they  discharging when they were paid? Here we return again to right of  conquest. (Actually, in the ancient world, free citizens – whether in  Mesopotamia, Greece, or Rome – often did not have to pay direct taxes  for this very reason, but obviously I&#8217;m simplifying here.) If kings  claimed to hold the power of life and death over their subjects by right  of conquest, then their subjects&#8217; debts were, also, ultimately  infinite; and also, at least in that context, their relations to one  another, what they owed to one another, was unimportant. All that really  existed was their relation to the king. This in turn explains why kings  and emperors invariably tried to regulate the powers that masters had  over slaves, and creditors over debtors. At the very least they would  always insist, if they had the power, that those prisoners who had  already had their lives spared could no longer be killed by their  masters. In fact, only rulers could have arbitrary power over life and  death. One&#8217;s ultimate debt was to the state; it was the only one that  was truly unlimited, that could make absolute, cosmic, claims.</p>
<p>The reason I stress this is because this logic is still with us. When  we speak of a &#8220;society&#8221; (French society, Jamaican society) we are really  speaking of people organised by a single nation state. That is the  tacit model, anyway. &#8220;Societies&#8221; are really states, the logic of states  is that of conquest, the logic of conquest is ultimately identical to  that of slavery. True, in the hands of state apologists, this becomes  transformed into a notion of a more benevolent &#8220;social debt&#8221;. Here there  is a little story told, a kind of myth. We are all born with an  infinite debt to the society that raised, nurtured, fed and clothed us,  to those long dead who invented our language and traditions, to all  those who made it possible for us to exist. In ancient times we thought  we owed this to the gods (it was repaid in sacrifice, or, sacrifice was  really just the payment of interest – ultimately, it was repaid by  death). Later the debt was adopted by the state, itself a divine  institution, with taxes substituted for sacrifice, and military service  for one&#8217;s debt of life. Money is simply the concrete form of this social  debt, the way that it is managed. Keynesians like this sort of logic.  So do various strains of socialist, social democrats, even  crypto-fascists like Auguste Comte (the first, as far as I am aware, to  actually coin the phrase &#8220;social debt&#8221;). But the logic also runs through  much of our common sense: consider for instance, the phrase, &#8220;to pay  one&#8217;s debt to society&#8221;, or, &#8220;I felt I owed something to my country&#8221;, or,  &#8220;I wanted to give something back.&#8221; Always, in such cases, mutual rights  and obligations, mutual commitments – the kind of relations that  genuinely free people could make with one another – tend to be subsumed  into a conception of &#8220;society&#8221; where we are all equal only as absolute  debtors before the (now invisible) figure of the king, who stands in for  your mother, and by extension, humanity.</p>
<p>What I am suggesting, then, is that while the claims of the impersonal  market and the claims of &#8220;society&#8221; are often juxtaposed – and certainly  have had a tendency to jockey back and forth in all sorts of practical  ways – they are both ultimately founded on a very similar logic of  violence. Neither is this a mere matter of historical origins that can  be brushed away as inconsequential: neither states nor markets can exist  without the constant threat of force.</p>
<p>One might ask, then, what is the alternative?</p>
<h2>Towards a history of virtual money</h2>
<p>Here I can return to my original point: that money did not originally  appear in this cold, metal, impersonal form. It originally appears in  the form of a measure, an abstraction, but also as a relation (of debt  and obligation) between human beings. It is important to note that  historically it is commodity money that has always been most directly  linked to violence. As one historian put it, &#8220;bullion is the accessory  of war, and not of peaceful trade.&#8221;<sup><a name="footNote1" href="http://www.eurozine.com/articles/2009-08-20-graeber-en.html#footNoteNUM1">[1]</a></sup></p>
<p>The reason is simple. Commodity money, particularly in the form of gold  and silver, is distinguished from credit money most of all by one  spectacular feature: it can be stolen. Since an ingot of gold or silver  is an object without a pedigree, throughout much of history bullion has  served the same role as the contemporary drug dealer&#8217;s suitcase full of  dollar bills, as an object without a history that will be accepted in  exchange for other valuables just about anywhere, with no questions  asked. As a result, one can see the last 5 000 years of human history as  the history of a kind of alternation. Credit systems seem to arise, and  to become dominant, in periods of relative social peace, across  networks of trust, whether created by states or, in most periods,  transnational institutions, whilst precious metals replace them in  periods characterised by widespread plunder. Predatory lending systems  certainly exist at every period, but they seem to have had the most  damaging effects in periods when money was most easily convertible into  cash.</p>
<p>So as a starting point to any attempt to discern the great rhythms that  define the current historical moment, let me propose the following  breakdown of Eurasian history according to the alternation between  periods of virtual and metal money:</p>
<h2>I. Age of the First Agrarian Empires (3500-800 BCE). Dominant money  form: Virtual credit money</h2>
<p>Our best information on the origins of money goes back to ancient  Mesopotamia, but there seems no particular reason to believe matters  were radically different in Pharaonic Egypt, Bronze Age China, or the  Indus Valley. The Mesopotamian economy was dominated by large public  institutions (Temples and Palaces) whose bureaucratic administrators  effectively created money of account by establishing a fixed equivalent  between silver and the staple crop, barley. Debts were calculated in  silver, but silver was rarely used in transactions. Instead, payments  were made in barley or in anything else that happened to be handy and  acceptable. Major debts were recorded on cuneiform tablets kept as  sureties by both parties to the transaction.</p>
<p>Certainly, markets did exist. Prices of certain commodities that were  not produced within Temple or Palace holdings, and thus not subject to  administered price schedules, would tend to fluctuate according to the  vagaries of supply and demand. But most actual acts of everyday buying  and selling, particularly those that were not carried out between  absolute strangers, appear to have been made on credit. &#8220;Ale women&#8221;, or  local innkeepers, served beer, for example, and often rented rooms;  customers ran up a tab; normally, the full sum was dispatched at harvest  time. Market vendors presumably acted as they do in small-scale markets  in Africa, or Central Asia, today, building up lists of trustworthy  clients to whom they could extend credit. The habit of money at interest  also originates in Sumer – it remained unknown, for example, in Egypt.  Interest rates, fixed at 20 percent, remained stable for 2,000 years.  (This was not a sign of government control of the market: at this stage,  institutions like this were what made markets possible.) This, however,  led to some serious social problems. In years with bad harvests  especially, peasants would start becoming hopelessly indebted to the  rich, and would have to surrender their farms and, ultimately, family  members, in debt bondage. Gradually, this condition seems to have come  to a social crisis – not so much leading to popular uprisings, but to  common people abandoning the cities and settled territory entirely and  becoming semi-nomadic &#8220;bandits&#8221; and raiders. It soon became traditional  for each new ruler to wipe the slate clean, cancel all debts, and  declare a general amnesty or &#8220;freedom&#8221;, so that all bonded labourers  could return to their families. (It is significant here that the first  word for &#8220;freedom&#8221; known in any human language, the Sumerian <em>amarga</em>,  literally means &#8220;return to mother&#8221;.) Biblical prophets instituted a  similar custom, the Jubilee, whereby after seven years all debts were  similarly cancelled. This is the direct ancestor of the New Testament  notion of &#8220;redemption&#8221;. As economist Michael Hudson has pointed out, it  seems one of the misfortunes of world history that the institution of  lending money at interest disseminated out of Mesopotamia without, for  the most part, being accompanied by its original checks and balances.</p>
<h2>II. Axial Age (800 BCE – 600 CE). Dominant money form: Coinage and  metal bullion</h2>
<p>This was the age that saw the emergence of coinage, as well as the  birth, in China, India and the Middle East, of all major world  religions.<sup><a name="footNote2" href="http://www.eurozine.com/articles/2009-08-20-graeber-en.html#footNoteNUM2">[2]</a></sup> From the Warring States period in China,  to fragmentation in India, and to the carnage and mass enslavement that  accompanied the expansion (and later, dissolution) of the Roman Empire,  it was a period of spectacular creativity throughout most of the world,  but of almost equally spectacular violence. Coinage, which allowed for  the actual use of gold and silver as a medium of exchange, also made  possible the creation of markets in the now more familiar, impersonal  sense of the term. Precious metals were also far more appropriate for an  age of generalised warfare, for the obvious reason that they could be  stolen. Coinage, certainly, was not invented to facilitate trade (the  Phoenicians, consummate traders of the ancient world, were among the  last to adopt it). It appears to have been first invented to pay  soldiers, probably first of all by rulers of Lydia in Asia Minor to pay  their Greek mercenaries. Carthage, another great trading nation, only  started minting coins very late, and then explicitly to pay its foreign  soldiers.</p>
<p>Throughout antiquity one can continue to speak of what Geoffrey Ingham  has dubbed the &#8220;military-coinage complex&#8221;. He may have been better to  call it a &#8220;military-coinage-slavery complex&#8221;, since the diffusion of new  military technologies (Greek hoplites, Roman legions) was always  closely tied to the capture and marketing of slaves. The other major  source of slaves was debt: now that states no longer periodically wiped  the slates clean, those not lucky enough to be citizens of the major  military city-states – who were generally protected from predatory  lenders – were fair game. The credit systems of the Near East did not  crumble under commercial competition; they were destroyed by Alexander&#8217;s  armies – armies that required half a ton of silver bullion per day in  wages. The mines where the bullion was produced were generally worked by  slaves. Military campaigns in turn ensured an endless flow of new  slaves. Imperial tax systems, as noted, were largely designed to force  their subjects to create markets, so that soldiers (and also, of course,  government officials) would be able to use that bullion to buy anything  they wanted. The kind of impersonal markets that once tended to spring  up between societies, or at the fringes of military operations, now  began to permeate society as a whole.</p>
<p>However tawdry their origins, the creation of new media of exchange –  coinage appeared almost simultaneously in Greece, India, and China –  appears to have had profound intellectual effects. Some have even gone  so far as to argue that Greek philosophy was itself made possible by  conceptual innovations introduced by coinage. The most remarkable  pattern, though, is the emergence, in almost the exact times and places  where one also sees the early spread of coinage, of what were to become  modern world religions: prophetic Judaism, Christianity, Buddhism,  Jainism, Confucianism, Taoism, and eventually, Islam. While the precise  links are yet to be fully explored, in certain ways, these religions  appear to have arisen in direct reaction to the logic of the market. To  put the matter somewhat crudely: if one relegates a certain social space  simply to the selfish acquisition of material things, it is almost  inevitable that soon someone else will come to set aside another domain  in which to preach that, from the perspective of ultimate values,  material things are unimportant, and selfishness – or even the self –  illusory.</p>
<h2>III. The Middle Ages (600 CE – 1500 CE). The return to virtual  credit money</h2>
<p>If the Axial Age saw the emergence of complementary ideals of commodity  markets and universal world religions, the Middle Ages<sup><a name="footNote3" href="http://www.eurozine.com/articles/2009-08-20-graeber-en.html#footNoteNUM3">[3]</a></sup> were the period in which those two  institutions began to merge. Religions began to take over the market  systems. Everything from international trade to the organisation of  local fairs increasingly came to be carried out through social networks  defined and regulated by religious authorities. This enabled, in turn,  the return throughout Eurasia of various forms of virtual credit money.</p>
<p>In Europe, where all this took place under the aegis of Christendom,  coinage was only sporadically, and unevenly, available. Prices after 800  AD were calculated largely in terms of an old Carolingian currency that  no longer existed (it was actually referred to at the time as  &#8220;imaginary money&#8221;), but ordinary day-to-day buying and selling was  carried out mainly through other means. One common expedient, for  example, was the use of tally-sticks, notched pieces of wood that were  broken in two as records of debt, with half being kept by the creditor,  half by the debtor. Such tally-sticks were still in common use in much  of England well into the 16th century. Larger transactions were handled  through bills of exchange, with the great commercial fairs serving as  their clearing houses. The Church, meanwhile, provided a legal  framework, enforcing strict controls on the lending of money at interest  and prohibitions on debt bondage.</p>
<p>The real nerve centre of the Medieval world economy, though, was the  Indian Ocean, which along with the Central Asia caravan routes connected  the great civilisations of India, China, and the Middle East. Here,  trade was conducted through the framework of Islam, which not only  provided a legal structure highly conducive to mercantile activities  (while absolutely forbidding the lending of money at interest), but  allowed for peaceful relations between merchants over a remarkably large  part of the globe, allowing the creation of a variety of sophisticated  credit instruments. Actually, Western Europe was, as in so many things, a  relative late-comer in this regard: most of the financial innovations  that reached Italy and France in the 11th and 12th centuries had been in  common use in Egypt or Iraq since the 8th or 9th centuries. The word  &#8220;cheque&#8221;, for example, derives from the Arab <em>sakk</em>, and appeared  in English only around 1220 AD.</p>
<p>The case of China is even more complicated: the Middle Ages there began  with the rapid spread of Buddhism, which, while it was in no position  to enact laws or regulate commerce, did quickly move against local  usurers by its invention of the pawn shop – the first pawn shops being  based in Buddhist temples as a way of offering poor farmers an  alternative to the local usurer. Before long, though, the state  reasserted itself, as the state always tends to do in China. But as it  did so, it not only regulated interest rates and attempted to abolish  debt peonage, it moved away from bullion entirely by inventing paper  money. All this was accompanied by the development, again, of a variety  of complex financial instruments.</p>
<p>All this is not to say that this period did not see its share of  carnage and plunder (particularly during the great nomadic invasions) or  that coinage was not, in many times and places, an important medium of  exchange. Still, what really characterises the period appears to be a  movement in the other direction. Most of the Medieval period saw money  largely delinked from coercive institutions. Money changers, one might  say, were invited back into the temples, where they could be monitored.  The result was a flowering of institutions premised on a much higher  degree of social trust.&#8221;</p>
<h2>IV. Age of European Empires (1500-1971). The return of precious  metals</h2>
<p>With the advent of the great European empires – Iberian, then North  Atlantic – the world saw both a reversion to mass enslavement, plunder,  and wars of destruction, and the consequent rapid return of gold and  silver bullion as the main form of currency. Historical investigation  will probably end up demonstrating that the origins of these  transformations were more complicated than we ordinarily assume. Some of  this was beginning to happen even before the conquest of the New World.  One of the main factors of the movement back to bullion, for example,  was the emergence of popular movements during the early Ming dynasty, in  the 15th and 16th centuries, that ultimately forced the government to  abandon not only paper money but any attempt to impose its own currency.  This led to the reversion of the vast Chinese market to an uncoined  silver standard. Since taxes were also gradually commuted into silver,  it soon became the more or less official Chinese policy to try to bring  as much silver into the country as possible, so as to keep taxes low and  prevent new outbreaks of social unrest. The sudden enormous demand for  silver had effects across the globe. Most of the precious metals looted  by the conquistadors and later extracted by the Spanish from the mines  of Mexico and Potosi (at almost unimaginable cost in human lives) ended  up in China. These global scale connections that eventually developed  across the Atlantic, Pacific, and Indian Oceans have of course been  documented in great detail. The crucial point is that the delinking of  money from religious institutions, and its relinking with coercive ones  (especially the state), was here accompanied by an ideological reversion  to &#8220;metallism&#8221;.<sup><a name="footNote4" href="http://www.eurozine.com/articles/2009-08-20-graeber-en.html#footNoteNUM4">[4]</a></sup></p>
<p>Credit, in this context, was on the whole an affair of states that  were themselves run largely by deficit financing, a form of credit which  was, in turn, invented to finance increasingly expensive wars.  Internationally the British Empire was steadfast in maintaining the gold  standard through the 19th and early 20th centuries, and great political  battles were fought in the United States over whether the gold or  silver standard should prevail.</p>
<p>This was also, obviously, the period of the rise of capitalism, the  industrial revolution, representative democracy, and so on. What I am  trying to do here is not to deny their importance, but to provide a  framework for seeing such familiar events in a less familiar context. It  makes it easier, for instance, to detect the ties between war,  capitalism, and slavery. The institution of wage labour, for instance,  has historically emerged from within that of slavery (the earliest wage  contracts we know of, from Greece to the Malay city states, were  actually slave rentals), and it has also tended, historically, to be  intimately tied to various forms of debt peonage – as indeed it remains  today. The fact that we have cast such institutions in a language of  freedom does not mean that what we now think of as economic freedom does  not ultimately rest on a logic that has for most of human history been  considered the very essence of slavery.</p>
<h2>Current Era (1971 onwards). The empire of debt</h2>
<p>The current era might be said to have been initiated on 15 August 1971,  when US President Richard Nixon officially suspended the convertibility  of the dollar into gold and effectively created the current floating  currency regimes. We have returned, at any rate, to an age of virtual  money, in which consumer purchases in wealthy countries rarely involve  even paper money, and national economies are driven largely by consumer  debt. It&#8217;s in this context that we can talk about the &#8220;financialisation&#8221;  of capital, whereby speculation in currencies and financial instruments  becomes a domain unto itself, detached from any immediate relation with  production or even commerce. This is of course the sector that has  entered into crisis today.</p>
<p>What can we say for certain about this new era? So far, very, very  little. Thirty or forty years is nothing in terms of the scale we have  been dealing with. Clearly, this period has only just begun. Still, the  foregoing analysis, however crude, does allow us to begin to make some  informed suggestions.</p>
<p>Historically, as we have seen, ages of virtual, credit money have also  involved creating some sort of overarching institutions – Mesopotamian  sacred kingship, Mosaic jubilees, Sharia or Canon Law – that place some  sort of controls on the potentially catastrophic social consequences of  debt. Almost invariably, they involve institutions (usually not strictly  coincident to the state, usually larger) to protect debtors. So far the  movement this time has been the other way around: starting with the  &#8217;80s we have begun to see the creation of the first effective planetary  administrative system, operating through the IMF, World Bank,  corporations and other financial institutions, largely in order to  protect the interests of creditors. However, this apparatus was very  quickly thrown into crisis, first by the very rapid development of  global social movements (the alter-globalisation movement), which  effectively destroyed the moral authority of institutions like the IMF  and left many of them very close to bankrupt, and now by the current  banking crisis and global economic collapse. While the new age of  virtual money has only just begun and the long-term consequences are as  yet entirely unclear, we can already say one or two things. The first is  that a movement towards virtual money is not in itself, necessarily, an  insidious effect of capitalism. In fact, it might well mean exactly the  opposite. For much of human history, systems of virtual money were  designed and regulated to ensure that nothing like capitalism could ever  emerge to begin with – at least not as it appears in its present form,  with most of the world&#8217;s population placed in a condition that would in  many other periods of history be considered tantamount to slavery. The  second point is to underline the absolutely crucial role of violence in  defining the very terms by which we imagine both &#8220;society&#8221; and &#8220;markets&#8221;  – in fact, many of our most elementary ideas of freedom. A world less  entirely pervaded by violence would rapidly begin to develop other  institutions. Finally, thinking about debt outside the twin intellectual  straitjackets of state and market opens up exciting possibilities. For  instance, we can ask: in a society in which that foundation of violence  had finally been yanked away, what exactly would free men and women owe  each other? What sort of promises and commitments should they make to  each other?</p>
<p>Let us hope that everyone will someday be in a position to start asking  such questions. At times like this, you never know.</p></div>
<div id="footnotes">
<ul>
<li id="footNoteNUM1"><a href="http://www.eurozine.com/articles/2009-08-20-graeber-en.html#footNote1"><sup>[1]</sup></a> Geoffrey W. Gardiner, &#8220;The Primacy  of Trade Debts in the Development of Money&#8221;, in Randall Wray (ed.), <em>Credit  and State Theories of Money: The Contributions of A. Mitchell Innes</em>,  Cheltenham: Elgar, 2004, p.134.</li>
<li id="footNoteNUM2"><a href="http://www.eurozine.com/articles/2009-08-20-graeber-en.html#footNote2"><sup>[2]</sup></a> The phrase the &#8220;Axial Age&#8221; was  originally coined by Karl Jaspers to describe the relatively brief  period between 800 BCE – 200 BCE in which, he believed, just about all  the main philosophical traditions we are familiar with today arose  simultaneously in China, India, and the Eastern Mediterranean. Here, I  am using it in Lewis Mumford&#8217;s more expansive use of the term as the  period that saw the birth of all existing world religions, stretching  roughly from the time of Zoroaster to that of Mohammed.</li>
<li id="footNoteNUM3"><a href="http://www.eurozine.com/articles/2009-08-20-graeber-en.html#footNote3"><sup>[3]</sup></a> I am here relegating most of what  is generally referred to as the &#8220;Dark Ages&#8221; in Europe into the earlier  period, characterised by predatory militarism and the consequent  importance of bullion: the Viking raids, and the famous extraction of <em>danegeld</em> from England in the 800s, might be seen as one the last manifestations  of an age where predatory militarism went hand and hand with hoards of  gold and silver bullion.</li>
<li id="footNoteNUM4"><a href="http://www.eurozine.com/articles/2009-08-20-graeber-en.html#footNote4"><sup>[4]</sup></a> The myth of barter and commodity  theories of money was of course developed in this period.</li>
</ul>
</div>
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		<title>Thinking Too Long-term?</title>
		<link>http://blog.longnow.org/2010/04/18/thinking-too-long-term/</link>
		<comments>http://blog.longnow.org/2010/04/18/thinking-too-long-term/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Sun, 18 Apr 2010 19:46:13 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Alexander Rose - Twitter: @zander</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Long Term Science]]></category>

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		<description><![CDATA[This week President Obama laid out his plan for the future of NASA.  It includes a large budget increase, a push to hand off orbital space flight to private companies, the design of new propulsion systems, and included the long-term goals of landing on an asteroid, going to Mars, and even pushing beyond that.  The [...]]]></description>
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<div id="attachment_2021" class="wp-caption aligncenter" style="width: 460px"><img class="size-full wp-image-2021" title="Space Conference at NASA" src="http://blog.longnow.org/wp-content/uploads/2010/04/obamacapsule.jpg" alt="President Barack Obama attends the opening session of the Space Conference at NASA Operations and Checkout Building in Cape Canaveral, Florida, April 15, 2010. " width="450" height="334" /><p class="wp-caption-text">President Barack Obama attends the opening session of the Space Conference at NASA Operations and Checkout Building in Cape Canaveral, Florida, April 15, 2010. </p></div>
<p>This week President Obama laid out his plan for the future of NASA.  It includes a large budget increase, a push to hand off orbital space flight to private companies, the design of new propulsion systems, and included the long-term goals of landing on an asteroid, going to Mars, and even pushing beyond that.  The national press and political reaction has been interesting to watch from a perspective of long-term thinking.  While there has always been a general agreement that we want to achieve these goals, the administration is taking heat from the press and both sides of the isle for looking &#8220;too far out.&#8221;</p>
<blockquote><p><span id="articleBody">Reaction to President Obama&#8217;s plan to kill the  space shuttle, scrap moon missions in favor of deep-space travel, and  outsource launches to private contractors is falling mostly along  partisan lines—but even some Democrats said the proposals could hurt  U.S. space interests in the short term. (<a href="http://www.informationweek.com/news/government/leadership/showArticle.jhtml?articleID=224400495" target="_blank">information week</a>)</span></p>
<p><span>See more press through this <a href="http://www.google.com/search?q=obama+space+plan" target="_blank">Google News Search</a><br />
</span></p></blockquote>
<p>It was predictable that representatives of all the &#8220;space states&#8221; like Florida and Texas might get upset. It was a little less predictable to see the right opposing privatization of orbital flight however. But even beyond that, I think this is one of the first cases I have seen a political figure chastised explicitly for thinking too long-term.</p>
<p>The best bit of long-term thinking was actually glossed over in the announcement of an asteroid mission.  An asteroid or comet impact on earth is the only serious threat to human (and nearly all lifes) existence, yet we spend basically no part of NASA&#8217;s budget trying figure out how we might avert such a disaster (the little bit of funding for <a href="http://longnow.org/seminars/02004/mar/12/the-asteroid-threat-over-the-next-100000-years/" target="_self">Rusty Schweickart&#8217;s program</a> is an exception, but a small one).</p>
<p>Aside from the very important asteroid mission, is the audacious goal of not only going to Mars, but landing humans on it.  This has been talked about for years, and I think that the average person thinks of this as a simple step forward from landing on the moon.  I used to think that.  But in the last year I have had dinner with the director at NASA Ames, given a talk at the Jet Propulsion Laboratory, and watched a shuttle launch from about as close as humans are allowed to get.  I have learned that going to space is dangerous and difficult.  It also requires a fantastic amount of infrastructure.  Look at the picture below of Kennedy Space Center:</p>
<p><img class="aligncenter size-full wp-image-2022" title="KSC" src="http://blog.longnow.org/wp-content/uploads/2010/04/1652.jpg" alt="KSC" width="500" height="340" /></p>
<p>It goes on for miles and miles of some of the largest and most specialized buildings and facilities in the world.  And Kennedy is just the prep and launch facility, the spacecraft and payloads are almost all built with private contractors or at the other 13 huge NASA facilities around the country.  When I had dinner with several NASA scientists at JPL I remember them telling me that with existing technology we might be able to get humans to Mars&#8230; and keep them alive for about 45 minutes. Getting Home? forget about getting home&#8230;</p>
<p>In order to get to <em>and</em> come back from another planet with gravity like Mars, (unlike the moon and asteroids with little gravity) we will have to package up at least the minimal functionality of Kennedy Space Center, and all the fuel needed for all legs of the trip.  We will have to take that package, launch it into space (now is a good time to remember that for every pound of payload we launch, we use about 95 pounds of fuel), then fly it 300 million miles, land it with little or no recovery infrastructure, unpack it all, re-assemble it, refuel and launch.  Even if some of the plans for making our own fuel, water and oxygen play out, the bare bones infrastructure and ability to prep a spacecraft for flight on another planet is astoundingly difficult.  This is, by definition a long-term plan, and continuing to spend money on the same technology that barely gets us to orbit will not get us there.  If we truly want to send humans beyond the moon, we are going to have to invent a lot of new technology, and invest heavily in education.  Now seems like as good a time as any to get started&#8230;</p>
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		<title>Are jellyfish our ticket to the stars?</title>
		<link>http://blog.longnow.org/2010/04/16/are-jellyfish-our-ticket-to-the-stars/</link>
		<comments>http://blog.longnow.org/2010/04/16/are-jellyfish-our-ticket-to-the-stars/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Fri, 16 Apr 2010 11:00:39 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Austin Brown</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Long Term Science]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Long Term Thinking]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://blog.longnow.org/?p=2009</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[A species of jellyfish called Turritopsis nutricula utilizes a cellular process called transdifferentiation to effectively live forever.  The process tends to be used by animals like salamanders to regenerate lost or injured body parts.  The Turritopsis nutricula, however, can use the process to completely revert themselves into a polyp form, restarting their life-cycle. Research was [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><img class="alignleft size-full wp-image-2011" title="hydrozoa" src="http://blog.longnow.org/wp-content/uploads/2010/04/hydrozoa.jpg" alt="hydrozoa" width="456" height="302" /></p>
<p>A species of jellyfish called <em>Turritopsis nutricula</em> utilizes a cellular  process called <a id="d902" title="transdifferentiation" href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Transdifferentiation">transdifferentiation</a> to effectively  <a href="http://blogs.currentprotocols.com/2010/04/06/immortal-jellyfish/">live forever</a>.  The process tends to be used by animals like salamanders  to regenerate lost or injured body parts.  The <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Turritopsis_nutricula"><em>Turritopsis nutricula</em></a>,  however, can use the process to completely revert themselves into a  polyp form, restarting their life-cycle.</p>
<p><a id="zusn" title="Research" href="http://www.springerlink.com/content/81747575j2707j4g/">Research</a> was published in 2008 showing that this  ability has allowed the jellyfish to survive long trips in ballast  compartments on cargo ships.  They&#8217;ve therefore been able to silently  invade the world&#8217;s oceans and have been observed in the Atlantic,  Pacific and Mediterranean.</p>
<p>Harnessing this process would be a  boon to <a id="dstn" title="Extropianism" href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Extropianism">Extropianism</a>, a philosophy that includes the hope that humans will one day  be able to live indefinitely.  On top of this goal, perhaps their  ability to colonize distant seas could be a helpful model in the  service of &#8220;directed <a id="mdyv" title="panspermia" href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Panspermia">panspermia</a>,&#8221; a process Michael Mautner  has claimed, in the Journal of Cosmology, to be a <a id="xeap" title="moral  imperative" href="http://www.physorg.com/news184915200.html">moral obligation</a>.</p>
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		<title>Scientists vs. Pulsars</title>
		<link>http://blog.longnow.org/2010/04/14/scientists-vs-pulsars/</link>
		<comments>http://blog.longnow.org/2010/04/14/scientists-vs-pulsars/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Wed, 14 Apr 2010 11:38:25 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Austin Brown</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Clock of the Long Now]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Long Term Science]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Long Term Thinking]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Technology]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[The Big Here]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://blog.longnow.org/?p=1979</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Technology Review has an article up in which some physicists defend their clock-making chops.  It seems they feel pulsars are getting more credit than they deserve in the public perception of accurate time-keeping: So accurate are pulsar signals that when they were discovered, astronomers gave serious credence to the idea that they were evidence of [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p style="text-align: center;"><img class="size-full wp-image-1995  aligncenter" title="Clocks" src="http://blog.longnow.org/wp-content/uploads/2010/04/Clocks.jpg" alt="Clocks" width="365" height="298" /></p>
<p>Technology Review has an <a href="http://www.technologyreview.com/blog/arxiv/25008/">article</a> up in which some physicists defend their clock-making chops.  It seems they feel pulsars are getting more credit than they deserve in the public perception of accurate time-keeping:</p>
<blockquote><p>So accurate are pulsar signals that when they were discovered,  astronomers gave serious credence to the idea that they were evidence of  intelligent life elsewhere in the Universe because they were unmatched  by anything physicists could make on Earth.  This has lead to the  widespread belief that pulsars are the most accurate clocks in the  Universe.</p></blockquote>
<p>John Hartnett and Andre Luiten at the University of Western Australia want you know that&#8217;s no longer the case.</p>
<blockquote><p>Today, the best optical lattice neutral atom clocks and trapped ion  clocks have a frequency stability approaching one part in 10^17.By contrast, as more pulsars have been discovered, their timing  stability has improved by less than an order of magnitude in the last 20  years. The best millisecond pulsars have a stability of only one part  in 10^15 at best.</p>
<p>That means that terrestrial clocks can rightly be crowned the best  clocks in the Universe, say Hartnett and Luiten.</p></blockquote>
<p>Duly noted.  It seems worth pointing out that the measure of accuracy in the article is expressed as a ratio without units &#8211; often you hear that an atomic clock will lose a second of accuracy only every 10 billion years or so.  The author of this article avoids that, and maybe for good reason.  Sometimes people told Long Now is building a 10,000 Year Clock react by asking, &#8220;Oh, like an atomic clock?&#8221;   It seems that an occasional side-effect of using these long time units to illustrate the accuracy of atomic clocks is the implication that they will be around for eons.</p>
<p>The thing is, atomic clocks rely on vacuum-sealed chambers full of cesium atoms kept near absolute zero or similarly complicated mechanisms to make their extremely precise measurements.  That kind of hardware requires a significant technological, economic and bureaucratic infrastructure to maintain.  If you can imagine finding an atomic clock after the electricity failed that kept it running, you would have to recreate a lot of knowledge to understand what in fact it was.</p>
<p>The article goes on to discuss the difficulty of building a timepiece durable enough that its lifespan requires scientific notation to describe, and mentions Long Now&#8217;s attempt through the <a href="http://longnow.org/clock/">Clock of the Long Now</a>. It&#8217;s in this endurance category, however, that pulsars maintain their dominance, as they&#8217;re likely to last quite a bit longer than anything humans have been able to build, even Long Now &#8211; we&#8217;ve been able to observe some that are thought to be around <a href="http://www.redorbit.com/news/space/1645741/chandra_finds_oldest_pulsar_still_kicking/">200 million years old</a>.</p>
<p>(<a href="http://www.technologyreview.com/blog/arxiv/25008/">Where Is the Best Clock in the Universe? &#8211; Technology Review</a>)</p>
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		<title>Surprises in Amber</title>
		<link>http://blog.longnow.org/2010/04/13/surprises-in-amber/</link>
		<comments>http://blog.longnow.org/2010/04/13/surprises-in-amber/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Tue, 13 Apr 2010 11:45:30 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Camron Assadi - Twitter: @teiwaz</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Long Term Science]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://blog.longnow.org/?p=1959</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[The Long Now Foundation is always looking at materials that are best suited for long-term preservation. Perhaps tree resin should be added to the list, after all it&#8217;s been preserved as amber since the Carboniferous period (around 320 million years ago). The notion may be too Jurassic Park to be seriously considered, but Wired Science [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>The Long Now Foundation is always looking at materials that are best suited for long-term preservation. Perhaps tree resin should be added to the list, after all it&#8217;s been preserved as <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Amber">amber</a> since the <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Carboniferous">Carboniferous</a> period (around 320 million years ago). The notion may be too <a href="http://www.imdb.com/title/tt0107290/">Jurassic Park</a> to be seriously considered, but <a href="http://www.wired.com/wiredscience/2010/04/cretaceous-time-capsule/">Wired Science has an interesting post</a> on some new 95 million year old amber finds from Africa that have yielded some new evolutionary context as reported in the <em>Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences</em>.</p>
<p style="text-align: center"><img class="aligncenter" src="http://www.wired.com/images_blogs/wiredscience/2010/04/formicidae.jpg" alt="" width="528" height="415" /></p>
<blockquote><p>Newly discovered pieces of amber have given scientists a peek into the Africa of 95 million years ago, when flowering plants blossomed across Earth and the animal world scrambled to adapt.</p>
<p>Suspended in the stream of time were ancestors of modern spiders, wasps and ferns, but the prize is a wingless ant (above) that challenges current notions about the origins of that globe-spanning insect family.</p>
<p>“Most specimens represent a unique fossil record of their group from Africa, and some are among the oldest records in the world,” wrote researchers in a paper April 5 in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.</p></blockquote>
<p><a href="http://www.wired.com/wiredscience/2010/04/cretaceous-time-capsule">Read More at Wired Science</a> and while there, see also the <a href="http://www.wired.com/wiredscience/2009/11/oldest-web/">oldest preserved spider web</a>.</p>
<p><em>Photo credit: Alexander Schmidt/PNAS </em></p>
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		<title>Manual for Civilization</title>
		<link>http://blog.longnow.org/2010/04/06/manual-for-civilization/</link>
		<comments>http://blog.longnow.org/2010/04/06/manual-for-civilization/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Tue, 06 Apr 2010 11:10:23 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Alexander Rose - Twitter: @zander</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Digital Dark Age]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Long Term Science]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Long Term Thinking]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Technology]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://blog.longnow.org/?p=1845</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Today we received another email about creating a record of humanity and technology that would help restart civilization.  The latest one is inspired by an essay that James Lovelock published in Science over 12 years ago called A Book For All Seasons (excerpt): We have confidence in our science-based civilization and think it has tenure. [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p style="text-align: center;">
<div class="wp-caption aligncenter" style="width: 579px"><img class="    " title="detroit ruins" src="http://viennasecession.typepad.com/photos/uncategorized/6_warrencentertreevergara.jpg" alt="Trees appear in a modern ruin of Camden NJ" width="569" height="380" /><p class="wp-caption-text">Trees on the second story of the abandoned Carnegie Library in Camden NJ. Photo: Camilo Jose Vergara.</p></div>
<p>Today we received another email about creating a record of humanity and technology that would help restart civilization.  The latest one is inspired by an essay that James Lovelock published in Science over 12 years ago called <a href="http://www.sciencemag.org/cgi/content/full/280/5365/832" target="_blank"><em>A Book For All Seasons</em></a> (excerpt):</p>
<blockquote><p>We have confidence in our science-based civilization and think it has  tenure. In so doing, I think we fail to distinguish between the  life-span of civilizations and that of our species. In fact,  civilizations are ephemeral compared with species. Humans have lasted at  least a million years, but there have been 30 civilizations in the past  5000 years. Humans are tough and will survive; civilizations are  fragile. It seems clear to me that we are not evolving in intelligence,  not becoming true <em>Homo sapiens</em>. Indeed there is little evidence  that our individual intelligence has improved through the 5000 years of  recorded history.</p></blockquote>
<p>Over the years these proposals have been in different forms; create a book, set of books, stone tablets, micro-etched metal disk, or a constantly updated wiki.  I really like the idea of creating such a record, in fact the <a href="http://www.rosettaproject.org/" target="_blank">Rosetta Disk</a> project was our first effort in this direction.  These <em>Doomsday Manuals</em> are a positive step in the direction of making a  softer landing for a collapse, and the people creating them (like  ourselves) are certainly out to help people.  It took millennia for the world to regain the technology and levels of  societal organization attained by the Romans, so maybe a book like this  would help that.</p>
<p>However it also seems that these efforts tap a romantic notion that we would all love to find something like this book from a past or otherwise alien civilization.  My worry is that it also feeds off a (likely incorrect) feeling that somehow collapse might be a fun challenge to live through, and that everyone kind of wants to be the monk in<em> <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/A_Canticle_for_Leibowitz" target="_blank">A Canticle For Leibowitz</a> </em>or Mel Gibson in <em><a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mad_Max_2" target="_blank">Road Warrior</a>. </em></p>
<p>My bet is that the reality of watching your civilization (and population) collapse is likely one of the worst things anyone could experience.  I am also not so sure the problem is just knowing how to remake a technology.  For instance after the fall of the great Egyptian, Mayan, and Roman empires we had evidence and examples of their engineering achievements all around us.  But aqueducts or senate buildings are worthless without a society around them to maintain, contextualize and protect them.</p>
<p>It is also worth pointing out that there are likely well over a billion people on earth who currently don&#8217;t interact with formal economies or technological society at all.  They will be very well adapted to a post collapse world, you should find some and make friends.  They will likely be far more helpful than a manual on restarting the internet, because they know how to gut a deer.</p>
<p>In any case I thought I would create this blog post which I will try and keep updated as these proposals and efforts come to me (and hopefully come to fruition).  I will also list some of the resources that I usually refer to when I get these inquiries.   Please note these resources are<em> extremely biased</em> toward the English language, the United States and Western culture.  Also note that one of the first things that comes up when creating any compendium style work is the issue of copyright.  It might sound ridiculous that you might worry about copyright in a doomsday manual, but if you want to publish it and get it into peoples hands before the apocalypse, you are going to have to deal with it in some way. Please feel free to use the comments field to make suggestions and pointers and I will integrate them here as well.</p>
<p><strong>Projects that are attempts in this direction:</strong></p>
<ul>
<li><a href="http://rosettaproject.org/" target="_blank">The Rosetta Project</a>: A multi-millennial micro-etched disk with a record of thousands of the worlds languages.</li>
<li><a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Westinghouse_Time_Capsules" target="_blank">Westinghouse  Time Capsule</a>s: Two time capsules (they actually coined the term for  this project) by Westinghouse buried at Worlds Fair sites, one in 01939  and the other 01965 to be recovered in 5000 years.  They also did the  very smart thing of making a &#8220;Book of Record&#8221; and an above ground  duplicate of the contents on display.</li>
<li><a href="http://www.humandocument.org/" target="_blank">The Human Document Project</a>: A German project to create a record of humanity that will last one million years.</li>
<li><a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Crypt_of_Civilization" target="_blank">Crypt of  Civilization</a>: A airtight chamber located at Oglethorpe University in  Atlanta,  Georgia. The crypt consists of  preserved artifacts scheduled  to be opened in the year 8113 AD.</li>
<li><a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Voyager_Golden_Record" target="_blank">The Voyager Record</a>: The Voyager Golden Record are phonograph records which were included aboard both Voyager spacecraft, which were launched in 1977. They contain sounds and images selected to portray the diversity of life and culture on Earth, and are intended for any intelligent extraterrestrial life form, or far future humans, who may find them.</li>
<li><a href="http://blog.longnow.org/2009/04/29/the-georgia-guidestones/" target="_blank">Georgia  Guidestones</a>: The four granite Guidestones are covered in inscriptions written in 8 major languages  that describe the tenets of their imagined Age of Reason.</li>
<li>(added) <a href="http://web.mit.edu/nraford/www/chests/" target="_blank">Doomsday Chests</a> by Noah Raford</li>
<li>(added) <a href="http://www.kk.org/thetechnium/archives/2006/02/the_forever_boo.php" target="_blank">The Forever Book</a> an idea by Kevin Kelly</li>
</ul>
<p><strong>Content that has been discussed to be used for these projects:</strong></p>
<ul>
<li><a href="http://www.lindsaybks.com/dgjp/djgbk/series/index.html" target="_blank">The  Gingery books</a> always seemed to me to be a great first pass on how to re-start manufacturing technology</li>
<li>(added) Wiki How has a lot of great info and it is continuously updated.  The entry on <a href="http://www.wikihow.com/Deliver-a-Baby" target="_blank">how to deliver a baby</a> seems like a particularly handy one&#8230;</li>
<li>(added) <a href="http://www.foxfire.org/thefoxfirebooks.aspx" target="_blank">The Foxfire Books</a> on homespun technology seem to have a slightly less industrial take than the Gingery books, and are pretty comprehensive</li>
<li>(added) The <a href="http://blog.longnow.org/2009/04/14/all-you-need-to-jump-start-civilization/" target="_blank">Lets Say Youve Gone Back in Time</a> poster to help you restart civilization by <a href="http://www.topatoco.com/merchant.mvc?Screen=PROD&amp;Store_Code=TO&amp;Product_Code=QW-CHEATSHEET-PRINT&amp;Category_Code=QW-PRINTS" target="_blank">Ryan North</a> the creator of the awesome <a href="http://qwantz.com/" target="_blank">Dinosaur Comics</a></li>
<li>(added) <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Way_Things_Work" target="_blank">The Way Things Work</a> by David Macaulay.  This is a fantastic book, but it might leave people thinking that all technology is powered by woolly mammoths and angels.</li>
<li><a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Harvard_Classics" target="_blank">The Harvard Classic</a>&#8216;s  originally known as <em>Dr. Elliots Five Foot Shelf</em><strong> </strong>are  often referred to as an item that should go into a record like this.</li>
<li><a href="http://encyclopedia.jrank.org/" target="_blank">Encyclopedia Britannica</a> People often suggest using the latest version that is now out of copyright.  I believe this is the 13th edition but so far I have only found digital copies of the 11th.</li>
<li><a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Domesday_book" target="_blank">The Domesday book</a>:  The Domesday Book is the record of the great survey of England  completed in 1086.  It would be interesting to find surveys and census&#8217; from around the world</li>
<li><a href="http://www.familysearch.org/" target="_blank">The Mormon Genealogical Data</a>:  This is also held in a bunker outside Salt Lake City Utah, but it might be nice to have a record of gene lines for a future civilization to better understand its past.</li>
<li><a href="http://www.gutenberg.org/browse/scores/top" target="_blank">The Top 100 Project Gutenberg books</a>: If you are concerned with archiving works in copyright this is a great source to find texts that are free to use.</li>
<li><a href="http://www.archive.org/" target="_blank">The Internet Archive</a>: An archive of complete snapshots of the web as well as thousands of books and videos.  Incidentally you would also get all of our scanned page content from the Rosetta Project with this.</li>
<li><a href="http://wikipedia.org/" target="_blank">Wikipedia</a>: The text only version of this is actually not that large, and could be archived fairly easily.  Also one of the few sources that is beginning to get filled out in many languages and is also not held under a copyright.</li>
<li><a href="http://pubs.cas.psu.edu/freepubs/pdfs/uk100.pdf" target="_blank">How to field dress a deer</a>: PDF pocket version from Penn State College of Agricultural Science (living in Northern California, I think this one will be especially handy).</li>
</ul>
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		<title>Dumpster Diving for Science</title>
		<link>http://blog.longnow.org/2010/04/01/dumpster-diving-for-science/</link>
		<comments>http://blog.longnow.org/2010/04/01/dumpster-diving-for-science/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Thu, 01 Apr 2010 11:47:37 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Austin Brown</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Digital Dark Age]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Long Term Science]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Technology]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[The Big Here]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://blog.longnow.org/?p=1856</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Or: Techno-Archaeology and the Tale of the Whale-Oil Tapes Researchers at NASA&#8217;s Ames Research Center recently were able to recover some very old and useful data.  The Nimbus II satellite created a detailed mosaic of the earth&#8217;s cloud cover and heat radiation in 1966.  Such old and detailed climate data is a boon to today&#8217;s [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Or: Techno-Archaeology and the Tale of the Whale-Oil Tapes</p>
<p style="text-align: center;"><a href="http://lunarscience.arc.nasa.gov/articles/science-nasa-dives-into-its-past-to-retrieve-vintage-satellite-data"><img class="size-full wp-image-1857  aligncenter" title="Weather satellite data from 1966" src="http://blog.longnow.org/wp-content/uploads/2010/03/Weather-satellite-data-from-1966.jpeg" alt="Weather satellite data from 1966" width="192" height="190" /></a></p>
<p>Researchers at NASA&#8217;s Ames  Research Center recently were able to recover some very old and useful  data.  The Nimbus II satellite created a detailed mosaic of the earth&#8217;s  cloud cover and heat radiation in 1966.  Such old and detailed climate  data is a boon to today&#8217;s researchers, but it wasn&#8217;t easy to come by.   Indeed, the data was lost for quite some time due to the tapes on which  it was recorded &#8211; the secret to their longevity was whale-oil, but it  became unattainable in the 1980&#8242;s due to the cessation of commercial  whaling.  Since they couldn&#8217;t get more long-lasting tapes, NASA chose not to keep the old data, but rather to rewrite the tapes with newer data that they decided needed to be preserved for the long-term more than the old data that, when it was new, needed to be preserved for the long-term but, once it was old, did not.  Some 200,000 tapes endured this fate.</p>
<p>What about the machines used to read the tapes?  Perhaps it was a form of penance: many of them ended up being dumped into the ocean to create coral reefs. Fortunately, a team of techno-archaeologists working as the Lunar Orbiter Image Recovery Project have been working to track down old and lost copies of tapes like these, as well as restore the machines required to read them.  Luckily, some of the Ampex tape drives made their way into the garage of a woman named Nancy Evans, an engineer from Jet Propulsion Laboratory.</p>
<blockquote><p><span style="color: #333333; font-family: Arial; font-size: 12px;">The<span> </span><span>LOIRP</span><span> </span>team obtained $750,000 from<span> </span><span>NASA</span><span> </span>and private enterprise and enlisted the assistance of a retired Ampex engineer. They cleaned, rebuilt, and reassembled one drive, then designed and built equipment to convert the analog signals into an exact 16-bit digital copy. “It was like dumpster diving for science,” says Cowing, co-team leader at<span> </span><span>LOIRP</span>.</span></p></blockquote>
<p><a href="http://lunarscience.arc.nasa.gov/articles/science-nasa-dives-into-its-past-to-retrieve-vintage-satellite-data">- NASA Lunar Science Institute</a></p>
<p>(via <a href="http://metamodern.com/2010/03/26/satellite-data-lost-to-whale-oil-shortage/">Metamodern</a>)</p>
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		<title>Warning: Your reality is out of date</title>
		<link>http://blog.longnow.org/2010/03/15/warning-your-reality-is-out-of-date/</link>
		<comments>http://blog.longnow.org/2010/03/15/warning-your-reality-is-out-of-date/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Mon, 15 Mar 2010 22:36:24 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Alexander Rose - Twitter: @zander</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Long Term Science]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Long Term Thinking]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[The Big Here]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://blog.longnow.org/?p=1834</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Introducing the mesofact]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<div class="wp-caption aligncenter" style="width: 549px"><a href="http://www.boston.com/bostonglobe/ideas/articles/2010/02/28/warning_your_reality_is_out_of_date/"><img title="mesofact" src="http://cache.boston.com/bonzai-fba/Third_Party_Photo/2010/02/26/solar__1267210539_2351.jpg" alt="" width="539" height="284" /></a><p class="wp-caption-text">This artist rendering provided by the European South Observatory shows some of the 32 new planets astronomers found outside our solar system. </p></div>
<p style="text-align: center;">
<p>This article was sent in by <a href="http://arbesman.net/" target="_blank">Samuel Arbesman</a> Research Fellow in Health Care Policy at Harvard Medical School.  It was originally printed in the <a href="http://www.boston.com/bostonglobe/ideas/articles/2010/02/28/warning_your_reality_is_out_of_date/" target="_blank">Boston Globe</a>.</p>
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<p>When people think of knowledge, they  generally think of two sorts of facts: facts that don’t change, like the  height of Mount Everest or the capital of the United States, and facts  that fluctuate constantly, like the temperature or the stock market  close.</p></div>
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<p>But in between there is a third kind: facts  that change slowly. These are facts which we tend to view as fixed, but  which shift over the course of a lifetime. For example: What is Earth’s  population? I remember learning 6 billion, and some of you might even  have learned 5 billion. Well, it turns out it’s about 6.8 billion.</p></div>
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<p>Or, imagine you are considering  relocating to another city. Not recognizing the slow change in the  economic fortunes of various metropolitan areas, you immediately dismiss  certain cities. For example, Pittsburgh, a city in the core of the  historic Rust Belt of the United States, was for a long time considered  to be something of a city to avoid. But recently, its economic fortunes  have changed, swapping steel mills for technology, with its job growth  ranked sixth in the entire United States.</p></div>
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<p>These slow-changing facts are what I term  “mesofacts.” Mesofacts are the facts that change neither too quickly nor  too slowly, that lie in this difficult-to-comprehend middle, or <em>meso-</em>,  scale. Often, we learn these in school when young and hold onto them,  even after they change. For example, if, as a baby boomer, you learned  high school chemistry in 1970, and then, as we all are apt to do, did  not take care to brush up on your chemistry periodically, you would not  realize that there are 12 new elements in the Periodic Table. Over a  tenth of the elements have been discovered since you graduated high  school! While this might not affect your daily life, it is astonishing  and a bit humbling.</div>
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<p>For  these kinds of facts, the analogy of how to boil a frog is apt: Change  the temperature quickly, and the frog jumps out of the pot. But slowly  increase the temperature, and the frog doesn’t realize that things are  getting warmer, until it’s been boiled. So, too, is it with humans and  how we process information. We recognize rapid change, whether it’s as  simple as a fast-moving object or living with the knowledge that humans  have walked on the moon. But anything short of large-scale rapid change  is often ignored. This is the reason we continue to write the wrong year  during the first days of January.</p></div>
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<p>Our schools are biased against mesofacts.  The arc of our educational system is to be treated as little generalists  when children, absorbing bits of knowledge about everything from  biology to social studies to geology. But then, as we grow older, we are  encouraged to specialize. This might have been useful in decades past,  but in our increasingly fast-paced and interdisciplinary world, lacking  an even approximate knowledge of our surroundings is unwise.</p></div>
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<p>Updating your mesofacts can change how  you think about the world. Do you know the percentage of people in the  world who use mobile phones? In 1997, the answer was 4 percent. By 2007,  it was nearly 50 percent. The fraction of people who are mobile phone  users is the kind of fact you might read in a magazine and quote at a  cocktail party. But years later the number you would be quoting would  not just be inaccurate, it would be seriously wrong. The difference  between a tiny fraction of the world and half the globe is startling,  and completely changes our view on global interconnectivity.</p></div>
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<p>Mesofacts can also be fun. Let’s focus  for a moment on some mesofacts that can be of vital importance if you’re  a child, or parent of a child: those about dinosaurs. Just a few  decades ago, dinosaurs were thought to be cold-blooded, slow-witted  lizards that walked with their legs splayed out beside them. Now,  scientists think that many dinosaurs were warm-blooded and fast-moving  creatures. And they even had feathers! Just a few weeks ago we learned  about the color patterns of dinosaurs (stripes! with orange tufts!).  These facts might not affect how you live your life, but then again,  you’re probably not 6 years old. There is another mesofact that is  unlikely to affect your daily routine, but might win you a bar bet: the  number of planets known outside the solar system. After the first  extrasolar planet around an ordinary star made headlines back in 1995,  most people stopped paying attention. Well, the number of extrasolar  planets is currently over 400. Know this, and the next round won’t be on  you.</p></div>
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<p>The fact that the  world changes rapidly is exciting, but everyone knows about that. There  is much change that is neither fast nor momentous, but no less  breathtaking.</p></div>
<p><em>Samuel  Arbesman is a postdoctoral fellow in the Department of Health Care  Policy at Harvard Medical School. He is a regular contributor to Ideas.  He has started a new website devoted to mesofacts, which can be found at  <a href="http://mesofacts.org/" target="_new">mesofacts.org</a>.</em></p>
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