Paul Saffo Seminar Tickets

Posted on March 9th, 02015 by Andrew Warner
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The Long Now Foundation’s monthly

Seminars About Long-term Thinking

Paul Saffo presents The Creator Economy

Paul Saffo presents “The Creator Economy”

TICKETS

Tuesday March 31, 02015 at 7:30pm

Cowell Theater at Fort Mason

Long Now Members can reserve 1 seat, and purchase additional tickets at half-price.
Join today! General Tickets $15

 

About this Seminar:

According to futurist (and Long Now board member) Paul Saffo, the ‘new economy” anticipated in the late 01990s is arriving late and in utterly unexpected ways. Social media, maker culture, the proliferation of sensors, and even the 02008 market crash are merely local phenomena in a much larger shift. What unfolds in the next few years will determine the shape of the global economy for the next half-century and will force a profound rethink of economic theory.

Paul Saffo teaches forecasting at Stanford and Singularity University. Journalists rely on him for cruelly telling quotes about everything from the monthly disruptions in Silicon Valley to the yearly turmoils in the global economy.

David Keith Seminar Media

Posted on March 6th, 02015 by Andrew Warner
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This lecture was presented as part of The Long Now Foundation’s monthly Seminars About Long-term Thinking.

Patient Geoengineering

Tuesday February 17, 02015 – San Francisco

Video is up on the Keith Seminar page.

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Audio is up on the Keith Seminar page, or you can subscribe to our podcast.

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Practical geoengineering – a summary by Stewart Brand

“Temporary, moderate, and responsive” should be the guidelines of responsible geoengineering, in David Keith’s view. For slowing global warming, and giving humanity time to bring greenhouse gas emissions down to zero (and eventually past zero with carbon capture), he favors the form of “solar radiation management” that reflects sunlight the way volcanoes occasionally do—with sulfate particles in the stratosphere.

The common worry about geoengineering is that because it is so cheap ($1 billion a year) and easy, civilization would become “addicted“ and have to continue it forever, while giving up on the expensive and difficult process of reducing greenhouse gas emissions, thus making the long-term problem far worse. Keith’s solution is to design the geoengineering program as temporary from start to finish. “Temporary“ means shut it down by 02200. (Keith also likes the term “patient” for this approach.)

By “moderate” he means there is no attempt to completely offset the warming caused by us, but just cut the rate of climate change in half. That would give the highest benefit at lowest risk—minimal harmful effect on ozone and rainfall patterns, and the fewest unwelcome surprises, while providing enough time (and plenty of incentive) for societies to manage their carbon dioxide mitigation and orderly adaptation. Geoengineering’s leverage is very high—one gram of particles in the stratosphere prevents the warming caused by a ton of carbon dioxide.

Responsive” means careful, gradual, and closely monitored, with the expectation there will be many adjustments along the way, along with the ability to back off entirely if needed. Though climate-change models keep improving, we still do not completely understand how climate works, and that raises the very good question: “How do you engineer a system whose behavior you don’t understand?” Keith’s answer is “feedback. We engineer and control many chaotic systems, such as high-performance aircraft, through precise feedback.” The same goes for governance of geoengineering. It is a complex system that will require sophisticated control by a global set of governing bodies, but we already do that for the far more complex system of global finance.

Keith’s specific program would begin with balloon tests in the lower stratosphere (8 miles up) releasing just 100 grams of sulfuric acid—about the amount of particles in a few minutes of normal jet contrail. “If those studies confirm safety and effectiveness,” Keith said, “then we could begin gradual deployment as early as 02020 with three business jets re-engineered for high altitude. By 02030 you could have about ten aircraft delivering a quarter million tons of sulfur per year at a cost of $700 million.“

The amount of sulfur being released might be up to a million tons by 02070, but that would still be only one-eighth of what went into the stratosphere from the Mt. Pinatubo volcanic eruption in 01991, and one-fiftieth of what enters the lower atmosphere from our current burning of fossil fuels. By then we may have developed more sophisticated particles than sulfate. It could be diamond dust, or alumina, or even something like a nanoscale “photophoretic” particle designed by Keith that would levitate itself above the stratosphere.

This is no quick fix. It is not quick, and it doesn’t try to be a complete fix. It has to be matched with total reduction of greenhouse gas emissions to zero and with effective capture of carbon, because the overload of carbon dioxide already in the atmosphere will stay there for a very long time unless removed. Keith asked, “Is it plausible that we will not figure out how to pull, say, five gigatons of carbon per year out of the air by 02075? I don’t buy it.“

Keith ended by proposing that the goal should not be just 350 parts per million (ppm) of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere. (It’s rising past 400 ppm now.) We can shoot for the pre-industrial level of the 01770s. Take carbon dioxide down to 270 ppm.

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Richard Rhodes: Twilight of the Bombs — 02010 Seminar Flashback

Posted on March 5th, 02015 by Mikl Em
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In September 02010 Richard Rhodes spoke about Twilight of the Bombs his history on nuclear weapons from the end of the Cold War to the 21st Century. Rhodes won the Pulitzer prize for The Making of the Atomic Bomb (01987) his first of four books chronicling the rise of nuclear science from the laboratory to the battlefield. Twilight of the Bombs is the final book of that series, covering an era of smaller arsenals but continuing challenges.

Richard Rhodes speaks about his latest book at The Interval on March 10, 02015

Long Now members can watch this video here. The audio is free for everyone on the Seminar page and via podcastLong Now members can see all Seminar videos in HD. Video of the 12 most recent Seminars is also free for all to view.

Rhodes warns of the devastating impact to the entire world of even a “regional” nuclear war between nations like India and Pakistan. He tells fascinating stories about Niels Bohr’s earnest warning to FDR and Churchill; the many close calls of the Cold War era that were never publicized; anecdotes about nations like South Africa, Libya, Iraq, and Sweden who all pursued or even built weapons to some degree; 10 steps for nuclear abolition; and his concern that the US may pose the biggest challenge to world disarmament.

From Stewart Brand’s summary of the talk (in full here):

How much did the Cold War cost everyone from 1948 to 1991, and how much of that was for nuclear weapons? The total cost has been estimated at $18.5 trillion, with $7.8 trillion for nuclear. At the peak the Soviet Union had 95,000 weapons and the US had 20 to 40,000. America’s current seriously degraded infrastructure would cost about $2.2 trillion to fix—all the gas lines and water lines and schools and bridges. We spent that money on bombs we never intended to use—all of the Cold War players, major and minor, told Rhodes that everyone knew that the bombs must not and could not be used.

Richard Rhodes is the author or editor of twenty-four books including The Making of the Atomic Bomb (Pulitzer Prize and National Book Award winner); Dark Sun: The Making of the Hydrogen Bomb (shortlisted for a Pulitzer Prize); and most recently Hell and Good Company (02015), a history of the Spanish Civil War. He has been a visiting scholar at Harvard and MIT and appeared on public television’s Frontline and American Experience series. His work is funded by the Ford Foundation, the Guggenheim Foundation, the MacArthur Foundation Program in International Peace and Security and the Alfred P. Sloan Foundation.

Tickets are available for Richard Rhodes talk at The Interval: March 10, 02015

Richard Rhodes at The Interval, March 02015
Richard Rhodes will speak at The Interval on March 10, 02015
photo by Catherine Borgeson

The Seminars About Long-term Thinking series began in 02003 and is presented each month live in San Francisco. It is curated and hosted by Long Now’s President Stewart Brand. Seminar audio is available to all via podcast.

Everyone can watch full video of the 12 most recent Long Now Seminars. Long Now members can watch video of this Seminar video or more than ten years of previous Seminars in HD. Membership levels start at $8/month and include lots of benefits.

You can join Long Now here.

Richard Rhodes: Hell and Good Company @ The Interval— March 10, 02015

Posted on March 3rd, 02015 by Mikl Em
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Hell and Good Company: Richard Rhodes at The Interval

March 10, 02015
Richard Rhodes (Pulitzer Prize winning historian)
Hell and Good Company at The Interval

Tickets are on sale nowthese talks typically sell out

Our next event in the Conversations at The Interval features author Richard Rhodes discussing his new book Hell and Good Company: The Spanish Civil War and the World it Made. Richard Rhodes is a celebrated historian and journalist whose works give us valuable insights into our past and future.

In many ways a precursor, the Spanish Civil War spanned 01936 to 01939; it ended just months before World War II began. Many from around the world were inspired to join the Spanish Republican cause, to fight against the fascist forces of General Francisco Franco’s rebel “Nationalists.”

Hell and Good Company at The Interval

Rhodes’ book is not restricted to the battlefield. It includes the stories of remarkable individuals who were reporters, writers, artists, doctors, and nurses. Amidst the crucible of a civil war watched by the world, emerged innovations in military tactics & weapons and in medical treatments & technology. Great works of art also emerged including For Whom the Bell Tolls by Ernest Hemingway and Pablo Picasso’s Guernica.

Guernica by Pablo Picasso

Long Now is thrilled to welcome such a distinguished author to our Conversations at The Interval series. We will have copies of Hell and Good Company and Richard will stay after his talk to sign books and chat with our audience.

Hell and Good Company (02015) by Richard Rhodes

Richard Rhodes won the Pulitzer Prize in Nonfiction for The Making of the Atomic Bomb in 01988. His book Dark Sun: The Making of the Hydrogen Bomb was shortlisted for a Pulitzer Prize in History. He spoke for Long Now in 02010 in a Seminar About Long-term Thinking entitled Twilight of the Bombs for the final of his four celebrated books on the history of nuclear weapons.

A visiting scholar at Harvard and MIT, Richard Rhodes has also contributed to Frontline and American Experience on PBS. His other works include four novels and the biography John James Audubon amongst his more than 20 books he has written or edited in total.

We hope you can join us for Richard Rhodes at The Interval on March 10, 02015

The Near and Far Future of Libraries

Posted on March 2nd, 02015 by Andrew Warner
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w_8cHynKVQjlFjM2xh2_3A-wide

The Near and Far Future of Libraries“, an article in the new publication “Hopes & Fears”, includes an interview with Long Now’s Dr. Laura Welcher on the dangers of the “digital dark age”.

Laura Welcher is Director of the Rosetta Project, The Long Now Foundation’s language-preservation effort that explores storage mediums that will last thousands of years.

 

Shooting for 10,000 Autoglossonyms

Posted on February 27th, 02015 by Jonathan Pool
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How many autoglossonyms do you know? Presumably, “English”; probably “español”, “français”, and “Deutsch”; perhaps “русский”, “日本語”, “עברית”, or “हिंदी”.

As you may have guessed, an autoglossonym is the name of a language in that language. While most people know a few of them, PanLex, as a Long Now project, aims to discover and document all of them that can be found, all the way into the farthest corners of the world and the remotest eras in time.

PanLex has amassed facts about words in nearly 10,000 language varieties (languages and their dialects). PanLex prefers to use autoglossonyms in naming language varieties; so far we have collected about 9,000, which we believe to be the largest such collection in existence. In some cases we find phrases that mean “language of the X people” or “language of X region” or “our language” used as autoglossonyms. But in about a thousand cases the PanLex team has not yet found autoglossonyms of any kind, and then we substitute exoglossonyms—names used by outsiders.

Finding autoglossonyms is hardest for extinct languages, languages of small groups, and obscure dialects. For example, PanLex has documented eight varieties of Shoshoni, a Uto-Aztecan language of Nevada, Idaho, Wyoming, and Utah, and for three of these we haven’t found autoglossonyms. Our database contains over 2,600 expressions in Big Smokey Valley Shoshoni, but we still don’t know its autoglossonym. It’s possible that speakers of this variety did not have a name for it, or the name has never been recorded. The search continues.

Using exoglossonyms when autoglossonyms are not available can be a delicate issue. As with names for racial and ethnic groups, names that outsiders give to languages are sometimes considered offensive by the people whose languages are being labeled. The words “Lapp” and “Hottentot”, for example, are generally recognized as pejorative terms for the Saami and Nama languages, respectively. But in many cases a non-native speaker would not recognize a language name as pejorative (for example, “Ngiao” for Shan and “Quottu” for Eastern Oromo).

Autoglossonyms can often be found in the documentation produced by other projects, including Ethnologue, Geonames, Lexvo, and Wikipedia. We use data from all these projects, and we make our data available to them in return.

You can see PanLex’s labels for language varieties on the home page of the expert PanLex interface. If you see any autoglossonyms there that you know to be incorrect, or exoglossonyms that you can replace with autoglossonyms, please notify info@panlex.org.

Brewster Kahle: Universal Access to All Knowledge — 02011 Seminar Flashback

Posted on February 26th, 02015 by Mikl Em
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In November 02011 Brewster Kahle, the founder of the Internet Archive, spoke for Long Now. “We are really striving to build The Library of Alexandria version 2,” says Brewster, near the start of his talk, “So that everyone anywhere who is curious to want access can access the world’s knowledge.” He proceeds to assess, one media type at a time what it will take in effort and disk space to get all the books, recorded music, TV, software, web pages, etc. into an online database. The overall message: “Universal access to all knowledge is within our grasp.”

Long Now members can watch this video here. The audio is free for everyone on the Seminar page and via podcastLong Now members can see all Seminar videos in HD. Video of the 12 most recent Seminars is also free for all to view.

From Stewart Brand’s summary of the talk (in full here):

The Web itself. When the Internet Archive began in 1996, there were just 30 million web pages. Now the Wayback Machine copies every page of every website every two months and makes them time-searchable from its 6-petabyte database of 150 billion pages. It has 500,000 users a day making 6,000 queries a second.

In 02015, less than 4 years later, the Internet Archive’s web archive has grown to over 400 billion pages; and the ever-expanding collections of books, movies, and music have now pushed the total Archive database size over 20 petabytes.

You’ll hear in this talk that Brewster and the Archive’s association with The Long Now Foundation goes way back. In fact the first prototype of the 10,000 Year Clock “bonged” twice to mark the year 02000 in a building shared with the Archive. Long Now continues to partner with the Archive in many ways including on Rosetta Project activities and the Manual for Civilization. And we intend for our partnership to continue for at the very least a few more millennia.

Brewster Kahle is the founder and chairman of the Internet Archive. He earned a B.S. from MIT in 1982, where he studied artificial intelligence with Long Now co-founder Daniel Hillis. Brewster Kahle serves on the boards of the Electronic Frontier Foundation, Public Knowledge, the European Archive, the Television Archive, and the Internet Archive.

Brewster Kahle and the Archive servers
Photo by Rudy Rucker

The Seminars About Long-term Thinking series began in 02003 and is presented each month live in San Francisco. It is curated and hosted by Long Now’s President Stewart Brand. Seminar audio is available to all via podcast.

Everyone can watch full video of the 12 most recent Long Now Seminars. Long Now members can watch video of this Seminar video or more than ten years of previous Seminars in HD. Membership levels start at $8/month and include lots of benefits.

You can join Long Now here.

Keeping The Net’s Long Memory Stocked: Jason Scott @ The Interval— February 24, 02015

Posted on February 18th, 02015 by Mikl Em
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Jason Scott of Archive Team and Archive.org

February 24, 02015
Jason Scott (archivist, historian, filmmaker)
The Web in an Eyeblink at The Interval

Tickets are now on sale: space is limited and we expect this talk to sell out

If you are reading this then Jason Scott has probably backed up bits that matter to you–whether you are an ex-SysOp or only use the Web to read this blog. Jason works on no less than three important online archives, each of which is invaluable in preserving our digital history. He’s also made two documentaries about pre-Web networked-computer culture The BBS Documentary and Get Lamp.

Jason Scott with Internet Archive founder Brewster Kahle at ROFLCon Summit

Jason created textfiles.com in 01998 to make thousands of files once found on online bulletin board systems (BBSs) available again after they had become scarce in the era of the World Wide Web. He founded Archive Team in 02009 to rescue user data from popular sites that shut down with little notice; this loose collective has launched “Distributed Preservation of Service Attacks” to save content from Friendster, GeoCities and Google Reader amongst others. In 02011 Jason began curating the Internet Archive‘s software collection: the largest online library of vintage and historical software in the world.

Long Now welcomes Jason Scott to our Conversations at The Interval series:
“The Web in an Eye Blink” on Tuesday, February 24, 02015

The Internet is a network of networks that has the ability to bring the far reaches of the world closer, seemingly in real time. A Big Here in a short Now. But there’s a Long Now of the Internet also in that it connects us through time: a shared memory of readily accessible information. Accessible as long as the resource exists somewhere on the system. So the Internet should give worldwide access to our long memory, all the content we’ve ever put online, right? Unfortunately there are some challenges. But happily we have allies.

The network path to a specific document is a technological chain. And it can be a brittle one. The chain’s components include servers, cables, protocols, programming code, and even human decisions. If one connection in the chain fails–whether it’s the hardware, software, or just a hyperlink–the information becomes inaccessible. And perhaps it’s lost forever. This problem is an aspect of what we call the Digital Dark Age.

The Dilemma of Modern Media

The “High technology” industry is innovation/obsolescence driven by its nature; so new models and software updates often undermine that network-chain in the name of progress. But the tech industry’s competitive business environment causes another threat to our online memory. Mergers and acquisitions shift product offerings irregardless of customer sentiment, let alone the historical importance of a site or service. Users who have invested time and effort in creating content and customizing their accounts will often get little notice about a site’s impending demise. And it’s rare that companies provide tools or guidance to enable customers to preserve their own data. That’s why Jason started Archive Team: to save digital assets for users not empowered to do so themselves. Initially reactive they now keep a “Death Watch” to warn users and keep their own team alert ahead of time about sites that don’t look long for this world.

There is no FDIC for user data. Jason Scott and the Archive Team are all we’ve got.

Jason Scott at ROFLCon II -- Photo by Scott Beale photo by Scott Beale

Jason’s advice is to help ourselves. As he said about the strange case of Twitpic.com:

Assuming that your photographs, writing, email, or other data is important to you … you should always be looking for an export function or a way to save a local backup. If a company claims it’s too hard, they are lying. If they claim that they have everything under control, ignore that and demand your export and local backup again.

The broken link may be the most pernicious of the many breaks that can occur in the network chain. When a linked file is removed or renamed, even if it’s been available for years, all access is instantly cut off. The Wayback Machine, a database of 452 Billion previously downloaded web pages, is a solution to that problem and it’s the main feature of archive.org that most people use today.

But the Internet Archive is much more than a database of web pages. It is a non-profit library with an ever-growing collection of books, movies, software, music, and more is available online for free. The archive preserves and expands our collective memory. And Jason’s work with archiving vintage software is especially groundbreaking.

Thousands of computer and arcade games have been added to the Archive in the last year. Many games have been saved from complete extinction in the process. But Jason and team have done more than that. They have built a website on which this code can run, so that the games are playable again. They did it with JSMESS, Javascript code that can emulate nearly 1000 vintage computing and gaming platforms. So the fact that physical components once requisite for these programs to be accessed will never be manufactured again has ceased to be a limitation. Hardware (computers, gaming consoles, disk drives) is no longer, or much less of, a weak link in the technological chain.

And these games which ran on Apple II’s, TRS-80s, Atari 2600′s, etc, from the historically important and nostalgia-rich era of the 01980s and 01990s will now run in many 21st Century web browsers.

Which browsers? Maybe your browser. Can you see a black box below? If so click the button and you’ll have a chance to play Apple’s 01979 “Apple ][” game Lemonade Stand. Have fun. And be patient. Things were slower then.

You can thank Jason Scott for uploading this and thousands of other fun, useful, or just old pieces of software.

In fact, you can thank him in person when he speaks at The Interval at Long Now this Tuesday, February 24, 02015: “The Web in an Eye Blink”. Jason will talk about his work in the frame of the Long Now.

Get your tickets soon, we expect this talk to sell out.

See Andy Baio’s piece on Medium for more thoughts on Jason’s work and the implications of the Archive’s software collection.

Photos by Jason Scott unless otherwise noted

The Cosmological Limits of Information Storage

Posted on February 12th, 02015 by Charlotte Hajer
link   Categories: Digital Dark Age, Long Term Science   chat 7 Comments

qua_1

An important part of long-term thinking is the never-ending search for very long-lived methods of information storage. A perfect, eternal storage medium still eludes us; most of the ones we’ve invented and used over the course of civilization have had their limitations – even stone, nickel, and sapphire have a shelf life.

But new research by a team of physicists now suggests that searching for a storage medium that lives forever may be a waste of energy, because the laws of physics themselves limit the amount of time that any information can be kept.

In a paper recently published by the New Journal of Physics, the researchers review how spacetime dynamics might influence the storage of information by asking how much data we can reliably hold on to from the beginning to the end of time.

In order to answer that question, the team combined Einsteinian cosmology with quantum theories about the nature of matter and reality. They worked with a standard model of the universe, called the Friedman-Lemaître-Robertson-Walker metric: based on Einstein’s theory of general relativity, it describes a universe that is homogeneous and isotropic, and therefore expands (or contracts) uniformly in all directions.

Working with this metric, the researchers modeled what would happen to stored data over the course of universe expansion. When you encode information into some kind of matter and then track what happens to your storage medium throughout the life course of the universe, you’ll find that the quantum state of its matter (in other words, its properties: its position, momentum, and spin) will eventually and inevitably change. The research team was able to prove that this change in state creates ‘noise’ that dampens the stored information. One of the research physicists explains the process in this video abstract of the paper:

The faster the universe expands, the team argues, the more ‘noise’ interferes with stored data. Looking at the storage of both classical information (anything encoded in bits) and quantum information (anything encoded by the quantum state of a given particle), they conclude that not very much data will last from the beginning to the end of time.

In other words, it seems as though we may be doomed to an eventual quantum dark age. Unless, of course, we always take care to anticipate these state changes, and continuously forward migrate our data.

Michael Pollan: Deep Agriculture — 02009 Seminar Flashback

Posted on February 10th, 02015 by Mikl Em
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Michael Pollan -- Deep Agriculture

In May 02009 author and food activist Michael Pollan spoke for Long Now about Deep Agriculture. At the time Barack Obama was recently elected President, and Pollan takes the opportunity to give a “state of the movement” on efforts to reform the US food system.

Full audio and video of this Seminar is free for everyone to watch on the Long Now Seminar site and via podcast. Long Now members can see all Seminar videos in HD. Video of the 12 most recent Seminars are always free for all to view.

His assessment finds a system built on cheap oil that has negative impacts on our health and jeopardizes our security. In a word, Pollan calls it unsustainable. It takes 10 calories of fossil fuel energy to bring 1 food calorie to the table. It’s important, he says, that people realize “we are eating oil.”

From Kevin Kelly’s summary of this Seminar (in full here):

The benefit of a reformed food system, besides better food, better environment and less climate shock, is better health and the savings of trillions of dollars. Four out of five chronic diseases are diet-related. Three quarters of medical spending goes to preventable chronic disease. Pollan says we cannot have a healthy population, without a healthy diet. The news is that we are learning that we cannot have a healthy diet without a healthy agriculture. And right now, farming is sick.

Michael Pollan is an award-winning author, a critic of and activist against the industrialized food system, whose books include The Omnivore’s Dilemma, In Defense of Food: An Eater’s Manifesto, and most recently Cooked: A Natural History of Transformation. He is also a former executive editor for Harper’s Magazine.

The Seminars About Long-term Thinking series began in 02003 and is presented each month live in San Francisco. It is curated and hosted by Long Now’s President Stewart Brand. Seminar audio is available to all via podcast.

Everyone can watch full video of the 12 most recent Long Now Seminars. Long Now members can watch more than ten years of previous Seminars in HD. Membership levels start at $8/month and include lots of benefits.

You can join Long Now here.