Support Long-term Thinking
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Blog Archive for the ‘Government’ Category

Politics does matter

by Kirk Citron on May 1st, 02009

The Long News #2: stories that might still matter fifty, or a hundred, or ten thousand years from now.

Senator Arlen Specter’s change of party affiliation is a news story that is likely to have long-term consequences; if the opposition can’t filibuster, it makes it much more likely that President Obama’s. . .   Read More

Nassim Nicholas Taleb on economic recovery

by Alexander Rose - Twitter: @zander on February 13th, 02009

This video answer sent in by Bryan Campen is one of the best considered answers to the economic crisis I have seen yet. It is a great lead in for tonight’s talk with Orlov, and points out the real hazards of how to invest stimulus funds. . .   Read More

Predicting 02009 in retrospect

by Alexander Rose - Twitter: @zander on January 2nd, 02009

Stewart Brand sent me this excellent piece by past Seminar Speaker, historian and author, Niall Furguson.  It is a retrospective of 02009, bravely published a year in advance.  An excerpt from the intro:

“It was the year when people finally gave up trying to predict the year ahead. It was the year when every forecast. . .   Read More

Chickens come home to roost in 02008

by Alexander Rose - Twitter: @zander on December 9th, 02008

 The Foreign Policy journal has an excellent top ten list for 02008.  Top ten worst predictions.  This type of accountability is exactly why we started Long Bets. Excerpts below:
“[A]nyone who says we’re in a recession, or heading into one—especially the worst one since the Great Depression—is making up his own. . .   Read More

Huey Johnson, “Green Planning at Nation Scale”

by Stewart Brand on October 6th, 02008

Green Plans

Green Plans, said Johnson, are government-run environmental programs that rise to the scale and longevity of environmental problems. Instead of acting piecemeal, they are comprehensive, systemic, integrated, and accountable. Instead of pursuing an energy policy, an air policy, and a water policy separately, you have to have one policy that covers them. . .   Read More

Gavin Newsom interviews Stewart Brand

by Alexander Rose - Twitter: @zander on August 21st, 02008

 Stewart Brand and Mayor Gavin Newsom talk about mass urbanization, the effects on the environment, and nuclear power.

MP3 of the interview. . .   Read More

Engineering a longer view in politics

by Stuart Candy on April 14th, 02008

Image credit: Christopher Sharp

Could the paucity of long-term thinking in the United States be due to a want of engineers in high places?

So suggests a report in EE Times, a long-running electronics industry newspaper, published earlier in the month. It argues that that engineers bring a valuable future-orientation and tendency. . .   Read More


by Stephanie Gerson on November 22nd, 02007

Futarchy is an untried form of government proposed by economist Robin Hanson, in which officials define measures of national welfare while prediction markets determine which policies are most desirable. In Hanson’s words, “we would vote on values, but bet on beliefs.”

Futarchy is based on the assumption that poor nations are poor because their. . .   Read More

Predictions & Prescriptions

by Austin Brown on November 21st, 02007

Good Magazine ran an interview recently with a man they call The New Nostradamus. Bruce Bueno de Mesquita uses a mathematical model that is based entirely on game theory to predict the outcomes of political conflicts. He takes a very literal interpretation of the phrase “political science” and focuses his analysis strictly on issues of. . .   Read More

Surfing the silver tsunami

by Stuart Candy on November 19th, 02007

Reuters reported in October that the first American Baby Boomer — a retired school teacher, born one second after midnight on 1 January, 01946 — has officially applied for Social Security payments. Currently, retirees seeking early benefits can apply three months before their 62nd birthday.

As the largest generation ever in the United States, the Baby Boomers. . .   Read More