The year 02020, like 02000 before it and 02050 after it, has long captivated the popular imagination as a kind of shorthand for “the future.” Some predictions about life in 02020 are remarkably prescient: In 02004, the National Intelligence Council predicted that an “America first” movement would rise in the United States; In Ray . . .   Read More

Our next Seminar speaker, Andrew McAfee, has offered a group of 14 predictions on Long Bets . . .   Read More

Predictions, regardless of their accuracy, help us think about the future and learn about the now. For its June 02019 issue, The Atlantic features an adapted essay on the practice of predicting the future from David Epstein’s recent book, Range. 

The track record of expert forecasters—in science, in economics, in. . .   Read More

10 years ago, Joe Keane placed a Long Bet that the Large Hadron Collider will destroy Earth by 02018. He was challenged by Nick Damiano. The stakes were $1,000. If Damiano won, the winnings would go to Save the Children. If Keane won, the world would end, and the winnings would (theoretically) go to. . .   Read More

This year, Warren Buffett won his multi-million dollar, decade-long Long Bet.

From the preacher warning that the day of reckoning is nigh, to the sports analyst prognosticating about the outcome of next week’s big game, to the fortune teller calling for hard times in Mercury retrograde, predictions are pervasive, but accountability is. . .   Read More

SAN FRANCISCO, CA. February 9, 02018.* The Long Now Foundation today announced that it has arrived at a decision for Long Bets #362, popularly known as the “Million Dollar Buffett Bet,” between Warren Buffett and Protégé Partners LLC. Warren Buffett has won the bet, and by a significant margin.

In the bet, Warren Buffett. . .   Read More

In 02008, Warren Buffett placed a Long Bet that will take until 02017 to resolve. He predicted that for those ten years, “the S & P 500 will outperform a portfolio of funds of hedge funds, when performance is measured on a basis net of fees, costs and expenses.”

Below is a summary of how. . .   Read More

It seems clear that computers are becoming more intelligent, but in the face of this fact, our definition of intelligence itself seems increasingly blurry. The University of Reading recently made an announcement exemplifying this trend:
The 65 year-old iconic Turing Test was passed for the very first time by computer program Eugene Goostman during. . .   Read More

In 1980, a bet was made between a Malthusian ecologist and a Cornucopian economist – between optimism and pessimism – about the fate of humanity and planet Earth. The wager concerned fluctuations in the market prices for several crude metals. If prices rose over the next decade, civilization must be facing scarcity and thus inevitable doom; falling. . .   Read More

From July 19th- 21st in Chicago, the World Future Society hosted their annual conference, WorldFuture 2013. The conference had over 60 sessions, workshops, and special events over the course of two and a half days, including a keynote from former SALT speaker Nicholas Negroponte. Topics ranged from Artificial Intelligence and the future of education to. . .   Read More