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Blog Archive for the ‘Long Bets’ Category

Long Bets Bet – How Durable Are URLs?

by Austin Brown on March 23rd, 02012

A major concern of the digital dark age is link rot – the eventual failure of URLs to point to the intended files. As website maintenance falters for any number of reasons the pages can cease to be accessible, even though their addresses may be listed on many other sites. The notion that Long Bets […]

Buffett gains ground in hedge fund bet

by Austin Brown on March 22nd, 02012

In 02008, Warren Buffet placed a Long Bet that will take until 02017 to resolve. He predicted that for those ten years, “the S & P 500 will outperform a portfolio of funds of hedge funds, when performance is measured on a basis net of fees, costs and expenses.”

Below is a summary of how. . .   Read More

Simon vs. Ehrlich, Round 2

by Alex Mensing on October 13th, 02011

Roger Pielke Jr. made an observation on his blog recently regarding the past decade’s rapid increase in commodity prices and the classic debate between optimistic Cornucopians and pessimistic Malthusians. In 01990 ecologist Paul Ehrlich – who has spoken at The Long Now Foundation’s SALT series – lost a decade-long bet to economist Julian Simon. . .   Read More

China’s Unthinkable Population Problem

by Austin Brown on June 22nd, 02011

In his post earlier today, Bryan Campen mentioned Kevin Kelly’s 02019 Unthinkables – a set of predictions he made in 1999 that were specifically meant to be outlandish or – eponymously – unthinkable.

With 12 years of perspective on the predictions, Kelly concludes his post by saying that he doesn’t think any of them will come. . .   Read More

The Warren Buffett-hedge fund bet tightens

by Austin Brown on April 27th, 02011

In 02008, Warren Buffet placed a Long Bet that will take until 02017 to resolve. He predicted that for those ten years, “the S & P 500 will outperform a portfolio of funds of hedge funds, when performance is measured on a basis net of fees, costs and expenses.”
Below is a summary of how. . .   Read More

Long Bet on Peak Travel

by Austin Brown on January 10th, 02011

One of the miracles of the modern world is our capacity for getting around – hop on a plane, nap a few hours, and you’re on the other side of a continent!  Technologically enabled, we’ve embraced this ability with gusto and are currently more mobile a species than ever before.  But, according to a pair […]

Is Kurzweil’s future arriving?

by Alexander Rose - Twitter: @zander on November 30th, 02010

John Rennie over at IEEE Spectrum has an excellent article on Ray Kurzweil’s 108 predictions for 02009 from his book Age of Spiritual Machines.  Ray Kurzweil is an avid and fearless predictor who also logged the first of our Long Bets with Mitch Kapor.  I think it is great that people are taking the. . .   Read More

Futurestates: watch, predict the future

by Austin Brown on October 5th, 02010

I just happened upon a call for extras (check it out if you’re based in San Francisco) for a film that will be part of a series of sci-fi shorts called Futurestates:
What will become of America in five, 25, or even 50 years from today? FUTURESTATES is a series of 11 fictional. . .   Read More

The qubits entangle

by Alexander Rose - Twitter: @zander on October 2nd, 02010

Nature reports quantum computing researchers achieve “success at entangling three-circuit systems”.

“The entanglement of two or more qubits sets up a ‘superposition’ of states in which calculations can run in parallel — in principle allowing a quantum computer to race through problems that it would take a classical computer eons to solve. Such a quantum. . .   Read More

How good are our predictions of the next 30 years?

by Alexander Rose - Twitter: @zander on May 6th, 02010

Stewart Brand sent in a piece by the Klimazweibel blog covered by Seekerblog.  It shows where the actual US energy consumption came in by 02000 vs the predictions from 01975.  It is interesting to see that we came in well below the lowest (read: most optimistic) prediction.  While the US still uses an amount of. . .   Read More