Support Long-term Thinking
Support Long-term Thinking

Blog Archive for the ‘Long Bets’ Category

How good are our predictions of the next 30 years?

by Alexander Rose - Twitter: @zander on May 6th, 02010

Stewart Brand sent in a piece by the Klimazweibel blog covered by Seekerblog.  It shows where the actual US energy consumption came in by 02000 vs the predictions from 01975.  It is interesting to see that we came in well below the lowest (read: most optimistic) prediction.  While the US still uses an amount of. . .   Read More

Buffett’s longest bet looking better

by Alexander Rose - Twitter: @zander on April 27th, 02010

The second year’s results on Buffett’s Million Dollar Long Bet are in.  Article from Fortune Magazine below:

By Carol J. Loomis, senior editor-at-large. April 27, 2010: 9:34 AM ET

(Fortune) — Unaudited results are in for the second year of “Buffett’s Big Bet” — Warren Buffett’s 2008 wager against Prot. . .   Read More

Long Bets in 02010

by Alexander Rose - Twitter: @zander on December 31st, 02009

Long Bets to be decided in 02010

Failed Predictions

by Alexander Rose - Twitter: @zander on December 3rd, 02009

Stewart brand set over this excellently illustrated set of failed predictions listed over at oddee.com. Excerpts below:

“It will be years –not in my time– before a woman will become Prime Minister.”
–Margaret Thatcher, October 26th, 1969.

She became Prime Minister of the United Kingdom only 10 years after saying that, holding her chair. . .   Read More

Buffet’s Big Bet Update – Year 1

by Austin Brown on November 24th, 02009

It took a while to get all the numbers crunched, but the first year’s results from the Long Bet with the highest prize are in.  Over a year ago Warren Buffet challenged the managers of several funds-of-funds to outperform the S&P 500 over a 10 year period.  A one million. . .   Read More

The computer of 02010

by Alexander Rose - Twitter: @zander on July 24th, 02009

 
Found while reading Charles Stross’ web diary is this wonderful link from 02000 Forbes Magazine on where computers would be in ten years… now just a few months away.  Some gems:

Within 10 years, in fact, silicon will fall to the computer scientist’s triple curse: “It’s bulky, it’s slow, and it. . .   Read More

Predicting 02009 in retrospect

by Alexander Rose - Twitter: @zander on January 2nd, 02009

Stewart Brand sent me this excellent piece by past Seminar Speaker, historian and author, Niall Furguson.  It is a retrospective of 02009, bravely published a year in advance.  An excerpt from the intro:

“It was the year when people finally gave up trying to predict the year ahead. It was the year when every forecast. . .   Read More

Chickens come home to roost in 02008

by Alexander Rose - Twitter: @zander on December 9th, 02008

 The Foreign Policy journal has an excellent top ten list for 02008.  Top ten worst predictions.  This type of accountability is exactly why we started Long Bets. Excerpts below:
“[A]nyone who says we’re in a recession, or heading into one—especially the worst one since the Great Depression—is making up his own. . .   Read More

Long Bets timeline

by Alexander Rose - Twitter: @zander on December 2nd, 02008

I met Derek Dukes the other night the founder of Dipity, the maker of the coolest web based timeline software I have seen yet.  You can manually generate timelines, or set up a timeline that is auto-generated out of RSS feeds, Twitters, Facebook updates, etc.  He set up a timeline for Long Bets in about […]

219 Years of bets at Cambridge

by Alexander Rose - Twitter: @zander on October 7th, 02008

The Cambridge Betting Books, From England 08

While visiting the UK last week my wife and I were invited to high table dinner at Cambridge’s Caius College by a friend who is now a fellow there.  Touring the grounds was stunning, that all of those gorgeous buildings and ancient libraries could be there for. . .   Read More