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Blog Archive for the ‘Long Bets’ Category

Long Bets in 02010

by Alexander Rose - Twitter: @zander on December 31st, 02009

Long Bets to be decided in 02010

Failed Predictions

by Alexander Rose - Twitter: @zander on December 3rd, 02009

Stewart brand set over this excellently illustrated set of failed predictions listed over at oddee.com. Excerpts below:

“It will be years –not in my time– before a woman will become Prime Minister.”
–Margaret Thatcher, October 26th, 1969.

She became Prime Minister of the United Kingdom only 10 years after saying that, holding her chair. . .   Read More

Buffet’s Big Bet Update – Year 1

by Austin Brown on November 24th, 02009

It took a while to get all the numbers crunched, but the first year’s results from the Long Bet with the highest prize are in.  Over a year ago Warren Buffet challenged the managers of several funds-of-funds to outperform the S&P 500 over a 10 year period.  A one million. . .   Read More

The computer of 02010

by Alexander Rose - Twitter: @zander on July 24th, 02009

 
Found while reading Charles Stross’ web diary is this wonderful link from 02000 Forbes Magazine on where computers would be in ten years… now just a few months away.  Some gems:

Within 10 years, in fact, silicon will fall to the computer scientist’s triple curse: “It’s bulky, it’s slow, and it. . .   Read More

Predicting 02009 in retrospect

by Alexander Rose - Twitter: @zander on January 2nd, 02009

Stewart Brand sent me this excellent piece by past Seminar Speaker, historian and author, Niall Furguson.  It is a retrospective of 02009, bravely published a year in advance.  An excerpt from the intro:

“It was the year when people finally gave up trying to predict the year ahead. It was the year when every forecast. . .   Read More

Chickens come home to roost in 02008

by Alexander Rose - Twitter: @zander on December 9th, 02008

 The Foreign Policy journal has an excellent top ten list for 02008.  Top ten worst predictions.  This type of accountability is exactly why we started Long Bets. Excerpts below:
“[A]nyone who says we’re in a recession, or heading into one—especially the worst one since the Great Depression—is making up his own. . .   Read More

Long Bets timeline

by Alexander Rose - Twitter: @zander on December 2nd, 02008

I met Derek Dukes the other night the founder of Dipity, the maker of the coolest web based timeline software I have seen yet.  You can manually generate timelines, or set up a timeline that is auto-generated out of RSS feeds, Twitters, Facebook updates, etc.  He set up a timeline for Long Bets in about […]

219 Years of bets at Cambridge

by Alexander Rose - Twitter: @zander on October 7th, 02008

The Cambridge Betting Books, From England 08

While visiting the UK last week my wife and I were invited to high table dinner at Cambridge’s Caius College by a friend who is now a fellow there.  Touring the grounds was stunning, that all of those gorgeous buildings and ancient libraries could be there for. . .   Read More

HAL, what’s a dubject?

by Alexander Rose - Twitter: @zander on October 5th, 02008

  Next Sunday October 12th, six different programs will attempt to pass the computer intelligence Turing test (according to the guardian.co.uk).  This also marks a serious attempt to decide the $20,000 Long Bet between Ray Kurzweil and Mitch Kapor, as well as win the $100,000 Loebner Prize in Artificial Intelligence.  In the tests, a human […]

As SLow aS Possible

by Stuart Candy on October 2nd, 02008

Photo: John Cage Organ Foundation, Halberstadt, Germany
via ABC News Online

Fair warning for long-term music lovers: the world’s slowest concert, a 639-year organ piece by American avant-garde composer John Cage (01912-01992), will next change notes in just over a month’s time, on 5 November 02008.

St Burchardi church. . .   Read More