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Blog Archive for the ‘Long Bets’ Category

Long Bets timeline

by Alexander Rose - Twitter: @zander on December 2nd, 02008

I met Derek Dukes the other night the founder of Dipity, the maker of the coolest web based timeline software I have seen yet.  You can manually generate timelines, or set up a timeline that is auto-generated out of RSS feeds, Twitters, Facebook updates, etc.  He set up a timeline for Long Bets in about […]

219 Years of bets at Cambridge

by Alexander Rose - Twitter: @zander on October 7th, 02008

The Cambridge Betting Books, From England 08

While visiting the UK last week my wife and I were invited to high table dinner at Cambridge’s Caius College by a friend who is now a fellow there.  Touring the grounds was stunning, that all of those gorgeous buildings and ancient libraries could be there for. . .   Read More

HAL, what’s a dubject?

by Alexander Rose - Twitter: @zander on October 5th, 02008

  Next Sunday October 12th, six different programs will attempt to pass the computer intelligence Turing test (according to the  This also marks a serious attempt to decide the $20,000 Long Bet between Ray Kurzweil and Mitch Kapor, as well as win the $100,000 Loebner Prize in Artificial Intelligence.  In the tests, a human […]

As SLow aS Possible

by Stuart Candy on October 2nd, 02008

Photo: John Cage Organ Foundation, Halberstadt, Germany
via ABC News Online

Fair warning for long-term music lovers: the world’s slowest concert, a 639-year organ piece by American avant-garde composer John Cage (01912-01992), will next change notes in just over a month’s time, on 5 November 02008.

St Burchardi church. . .   Read More

The Wisdom of Public Prediction Markets

by Kevin Kelly on September 4th, 02008

Prediction markets continue to proliferate. These communities use money to bet on outcomes in the future. If a prediction comes true, the winners reap the money from the losing betters. The price of a bet, or share, fluctuates over time — and thus can be used as a signal for the community’s opinion. In theory. . .   Read More

The end is nigh

by Alexander Rose - Twitter: @zander on September 4th, 02008

On Wednesday morning September 10th, the very excited and optimistic scientists turn on the Large Hadron Collider outside Geneva…

We have a Long Bet that states “Large Hadron Collider will destroy Earth.” And you can watch the video above of what that looks like.

The “First Beam” will occur at 9:30am at CERN, which. . .   Read More

Wired steps up and admits defeat

by Alexander Rose - Twitter: @zander on July 1st, 02008

  In a rare, if not completely unique, look back at a few of it’s own failed predictions, Wired published the five largest predictive blunders of its 15 year history (see A Look Back).  When we started Long Bets in 02002, it was precisely because pundits and press did not take this type of responsibility.  […]

The Million Dollar Long Bet

by Kevin Kelly on June 9th, 02008

Warren Buffett recently bet an ambitious hedge fund operator $1 million that they won’t beat the returns of S&P 500 after their extremely hefty fees are accounted for. Buffett claims investors will do as well with a no-load index fund over the ten years of the bet. He has long been critical of the performance […]

Long Bets and Predictify

by Alexander Rose - Twitter: @zander on March 12th, 02008

 The great folks over at Predictify have made a special area in their site for Long Bets.  This is a great place to experiment with predictions and even make short bets that may have long term consequences…  Check it out at: 

Futurists! – Earn $$$ Now!

by Simone Davalos on February 16th, 02008

I’ve Stumbledupon (quite literally) a interesting looking site called Predictify.

Predictify seems to be combining social networking, message board discussion, pay-per-post business models and Wikipedia-style collective wisdom into a harmonious online community of eager questioners and knowledgeable, astute predictors, all united to discuss deterministic questions about the future, share knowledge, and. . .   Read More