It’s a bit rare that we see such clear and succinct predictions. These three by Ari Emanuel were published at the Huffington Post and were forwarded to me by Paul Saffo: I have three predictions to make this morning: 1) John McCain will not be the Republican Party’s nominee. 2) Hillary Clinton will not be…  Read More

Ignore confident forecasters “What is it about politics that makes people so dumb?” From his perspective as a pyschology researcher, Philip Tetlock watched political advisors on the left and the right make bizarre rationalizations about their wrong predictions at the time of the rise of Gorbachev in the 1980s and the eventual collapse of the…  Read More

  With the Republican control of the House and Senate, there is no scenario in which a Democrat can become President by August 2005 (the two-year horizon of my original Bet). Looking at the two arguments, Eno’s is persuasive in detail, mine clearly wrong. The morning after the election I wrote Eno my summary of…  Read More

  The Red Sox have won the Series and with it falls Mike Elliot’s argument around the speed of globalization vs. the Red Sox pitching depth.  Below is the write up in the New York Times. Hey, Cliff Clavin, This Time Sam Malone’s the Smart One By JONATHAN FUERBRINGER The New York Times Published: November…  Read More

This article was written by Peter Schwartz for Red Herring’s 02002 Scenarios issue. This is the original un-edited piece.

Yucca Mountain in southern Nevada is more a ridge than a mountain. It slowly rises from a height of four thousand feet to six thousand feet along its’ length of six miles. On February. . .   Read More