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Blog Archive for the ‘Long-term Thinking’ Category

John Baez – Zooming Out In Time

by Simone Davalos on October 16th, 02006

Welcome to the Anthropocene

The graphs we see these days, John Baez began, all look vertical— carbon burning shooting up, CO2 in the air shooting up, global temperature shooting up, and population still shooting up. How can we understand what really going on? “It’s like trying to understand geology while you’re hanging by. . .   Read More

Orville Schell – “China Thinks Long-term, But Can It Relearn to Act Long-term?”

by Simone Davalos on October 4th, 02006

Giant contradictions

“China is the most unresolved nation of consequence in the world,” Orville Schell began. It is defined by its massive contradictions. And by its massiveness— China’s population is estimated to be 1.25 to 1.3 billion; the margin of error in the estimate is greater than the population of France. It. . .   Read More

Kevin Kelly – “The Next 100 Years of Science: Long-term Trends in the Scientific Method.”

by Simone Davalos on March 13th, 02006

Recursion drives science

The co-founding editor of “Wired” magazine and author of OUT OF CONTROL is working on a new book on “what technology wants.” His research led to the first-ever history of scientific methodology. Starting from this long-term view of science’s past transformation, he speculates on how the practice of. . .   Read More

Ray Kurzweil – “Kurzweil’s Law”

by Stewart Brand on September 26th, 02005

Escape velocity

Attempts to think long term, Ray Kurzweil began, keep making the mistake of imagining that the pace of the future is like the pace of the past. Pondering the next ten years, we usually begin by studying the last ten years. He recommends studying the last twenty year for clues about the rate. . .   Read More

Spencer Beebe – “Very Long-term Very Large-scale Biomimicry”

by Stewart Brand on March 14th, 02005

The rainforests of home

SPENCER BEEBE is founder and head of Ecotrust, the Portland-based organization that is setting in motion a permanently prosperous conservation economy for the entire Pacific Coast from San Francisco north to Alaska— the temperate rain forest also known as “Salmon Nation.”

SPENCER BEEBE began his Seminar About Long-term Thinking. . .   Read More

Jill Tarter – “Communication with Extraterrestrial Intelligence – A Necessarily Long-Term Strategy”

by Stewart Brand on July 12th, 02004

The long search

“The Search for Extra-Terrestrial Intelligence: Necessarily a Long-term Strategy” is the title for Jill Tarter’s Seminar About Long-term Thinking this Friday. There’s no deeper question than “Are we alone in the universe?” And there’s no quick way to answer it. Slow, steady science is the hardest. . .   Read More

James Dewar – “Long-term Policy Analysis”

by Stewart Brand on February 16th, 02004

Long-term Policy Analysis

Dewar is head of RAND’s Pardee Center on very long-term policy—35 to 200 years

For over half a century the RAND Corporation has influenced national policy and invented major intellectual tools. Packet switching (Paul Baran) came from RAND; so did scenario planning (Herman Kahn); so does the current. . .   Read More

Peter Schwartz, “The Art Of The Really Long View”

by Robin Ward on December 12th, 02003

The art of the really long view

For such a weighty subject there was a lot of guffawing going on in the Seminar Thursday night.

The topic was “The Art of the Really Long View.” Peter Schwartz chatted through his slides for tonight’s lecture, then the discussion waded in. Present were Danny Hillis, Leighton. . .   Read More

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