January 14th, 02008 by Stewart Brand
Rules of Forecasting
Reflecting on his 25 years as a forecaster, Paul Saffo pointed out that a forecaster’s job is not to predict outcomes, but to map the “cone of uncertainty” on a subject. Where are the edges of what might happen? (Uncertainty is cone-shaped because it expands as you project further into the future— next decade has more surprises in store than next week.)
Rule: Wild cards sensitize us to surprise, and they push the edges of the cone out further…
Read the rest of Stewart Brand’s Summary
This entry was posted on Monday, January 14th, 02008 at 1:14 pm and is filed under Seminars.