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Paul Saffo, “Embracing Uncertainty – the secret to effective forecasting”

January 14th, 02008 by Stewart Brand

Paul Saffo

Rules of Forecasting

Reflecting on his 25 years as a forecaster, Paul Saffo pointed out that a forecaster’s job is not to predict outcomes, but to map the “cone of uncertainty” on a subject. Where are the edges of what might happen? (Uncertainty is cone-shaped because it expands as you project further into the future— next decade has more surprises in store than next week.)

Rule: Wild cards sensitize us to surprise, and they push the edges of the cone out further…

Read the rest of Stewart Brand’s Summary

This entry was posted on Monday, January 14th, 02008 at 1:14 pm and is filed under Seminars. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.

  • I read your post and I was remembering the old saying: "The only thing that is certain is change" . As I'm a project manager and I run a project management website ( PM Hut) I have to say that change is one of the things that makes a Project Manager's life a living nightmare. The really good Project Manager are those who can embrace change, and think of a change as something that goes with the job, and not a burden.

    Your point that "Change is never linear" is excellent.
  • STEWART BRAND? Wow. Guess that shows how far out of the loop I am. Or, I must be hanging out at the wrong websites, cause I haven't seen that name in a while. Just wanted you know that it's good to see that byline again--and in such good company!

    P.
  • I wonder what Saffo or Brand would think of the possibility of "polar cities" in the far distant future to house survivors of global warming catastrophic events, perhaps 30 generations down the road? Just a non-threatening thought experiment for now, although most adaptation experts do not want to think about such things now. Google the term "polar cities" and see for yourself, or see the images here:

    http://pcillu101.blogspot.com

    Keith Farnish in the UK calls polar cities idea "a potent warning rather than a hopeful future". He's right. What would Saffo or Brand say? Have either of them ever considered polar cities as a possible adaptation strategy in say, 2323 or 2424?
  • Daniel O'Donnell
    I was scheduled to be in SF the following week, so flew up early to attend this talk. Also took along a friend who is by nature a skeptic about futurist prediction. As Niels Bohr is reputed to have said, it is very difficult to predict the future, and Paul Saffo seemed to agree somewhat. He was funny and somewhat self-effacing in admitting that sometimes he's wrong, but the trick is to ignore it and keep predicting - and sometimes he (and we) will get it right. Stewart's summary here is good and accurate, but I hope the mp3 and mp4 are up soon so I can review the talk.
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