Paul Saffo, “Embracing Uncertainty – the secret to effective forecasting”
January 14th, 02008 by Stewart Brand
Rules of Forecasting
Reflecting on his 25 years as a forecaster, Paul Saffo pointed out that a forecaster’s job is not to predict outcomes, but to map the “cone of uncertainty” on a subject. Where are the edges of what might happen? (Uncertainty is cone-shaped because it expands as you project further into the future— next decade has more surprises in store than next week.)
Rule: Wild cards sensitize us to surprise, and they push the edges of the cone out further…
Read the rest of Stewart Brand’s Summary
This entry was posted on Monday, January 14th, 2008 at 1:14 pm and is filed under Seminars. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.
Posted on January 15th, 2008 at 1:29 am
[...] Long Views » Blog Archive » Paul Saffo, “Embracing Uncertainty – the secret to effective forecas… 6 rules for forecasting including “Change is never linear. Our expectations are linear, but new technologies come in “S” curves, so we routinely overestimate short-term change and underestimate long-term change.” (tags: predictions forecasting change rules future) [...]
Posted on January 19th, 2008 at 10:13 pm
I was scheduled to be in SF the following week, so flew up early to attend this talk. Also took along a friend who is by nature a skeptic about futurist prediction. As Niels Bohr is reputed to have said, it is very difficult to predict the future, and Paul Saffo seemed to agree somewhat. He was funny and somewhat self-effacing in admitting that sometimes he’s wrong, but the trick is to ignore it and keep predicting – and sometimes he (and we) will get it right. Stewart’s summary here is good and accurate, but I hope the mp3 and mp4 are up soon so I can review the talk.
Posted on January 26th, 2008 at 11:36 pm
Paul Saffo on the Rules of Forecasting…
Saffo to me was always some sort of weird wizard who thought and saw differently than others. I’ve met folks who channel the future, and it’s always wondrous and bewildering. Saffo gave a Long Now seminar recently and here (link…
Posted on February 4th, 2008 at 5:35 am
Elated with Saffo seminar…
I finally listened to the Saffo’s Long Now talk on forecasting. What really excited me is that he said some things that I’ve been thinking about. I wonder if I picked it up from the same folks he’s picked it…
Posted on February 11th, 2008 at 6:09 pm
I wonder what Saffo or Brand would think of the possibility of “polar cities” in the far distant future to house survivors of global warming catastrophic events, perhaps 30 generations down the road? Just a non-threatening thought experiment for now, although most adaptation experts do not want to think about such things now. Google the term “polar cities” and see for yourself, or see the images here:
http://pcillu101.blogspot.com
Keith Farnish in the UK calls polar cities idea “a potent warning rather than a hopeful future”. He’s right. What would Saffo or Brand say? Have either of them ever considered polar cities as a possible adaptation strategy in say, 2323 or 2424?
Posted on February 13th, 2008 at 9:23 am
[...] Paul Saffo recently gave a talk “Embracing Uncertainty – the secret to effective forecasting” at the Long Now foundation. The talk (mp3) and Stewart Brand’s summary are online on the Long [...]
Posted on July 12th, 2008 at 9:57 am
STEWART BRAND? Wow. Guess that shows how far out of the loop I am. Or, I must be hanging out at the wrong websites, cause I haven’t seen that name in a while. Just wanted you know that it’s good to see that byline again–and in such good company!
P.
Posted on August 5th, 2008 at 5:12 pm
[...] The Long Now Blog » Blog Archive » Paul Saffo, “Embracing Uncertainty – the secret to effective … [...]
Posted on November 18th, 2008 at 6:14 am
[...] knowledge. Technologist and Forecaster Paul Saffo makes this argument in the Long Now presentation “Embracing Uncertainty” as did economist Friedrich Hayek whose following quote appeared in the book Crowdsourcing.” [...]
Posted on February 9th, 2009 at 5:22 am
[...] a nice summary of a talk that Paul Saffo gave at The Long Now Foundation on “Embracing Uncertainty – The Secret To Effective Forecasting” (audio version of talk also available and video is here). “Reflecting on his 25 years as a [...]
Posted on February 9th, 2009 at 11:42 am
I read your post and I was remembering the old saying: “The only thing that is certain is change” . As I’m a project manager and I run a project management website ( PM Hut) I have to say that change is one of the things that makes a Project Manager’s life a living nightmare. The really good Project Manager are those who can embrace change, and think of a change as something that goes with the job, and not a burden.
Your point that “Change is never linear” is excellent.
Posted on May 9th, 2009 at 8:08 am
[...] Long Now’s recap of his talk provides better detail to each of his rules and a few more thoughts. Didn’t seem right to just copy/paste here… so please take a read here on the Long Now Blog. [...]
Posted on August 10th, 2009 at 3:12 am
[...] Paul Saffo is right when he says we overestimate in the short term and underestimate in the long, my out-there prophesies might [...]
Posted on August 11th, 2009 at 4:55 am
[...] a podcast of a seminar by Paul Saffo entitled “Embracing Uncertainty – the Secret to Effective Forecasting”. In it he suggests that one of the main problems with forecasting or predicting future trends is [...]
Posted on September 4th, 2009 at 5:56 am
[...] the weak signals that have led to big changes. A good overview of the whole seminar can be found here where Saffo gives some examples of those weak signals in history’s mirror that can help us [...]