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Blog Archive for the ‘Long Bets’ Category

How Warren Buffett Won His Multi-Million Dollar Long Bet

by Ahmed Kabil on February 17th, 02018

This year, Warren Buffett won his multi-million dollar, decade-long Long Bet. From the preacher warning that the day of reckoning is nigh, to the sports analyst prognosticating about the outcome of next week’s big game, to the fortune teller calling for hard times in Mercury retrograde, predictions are pervasive, but accountability is rare. That the vast majority of predictions…  Read More

Warren Buffett Wins Multi-Million Dollar Long Bet

by Ahmed Kabil on February 9th, 02018

SAN FRANCISCO, CA. February 9, 02018.* The Long Now Foundation today announced that it has arrived at a decision for Long Bets #362, popularly known as the “Million Dollar Buffett Bet,” between Warren Buffett and Protégé Partners LLC. Warren Buffett has won the bet, and by a significant margin. In the bet, Warren Buffett predicted that…  Read More

Warren Buffett maintains his lead in his $1 million Long Bet

by Andrew Warner on March 13th, 02015

In 02008, Warren Buffett placed a Long Bet that will take until 02017 to resolve. He predicted that for those ten years, “the S & P 500 will outperform a portfolio of funds of hedge funds, when performance is measured on a basis net of fees, costs and expenses.” Below is a summary of how things went…  Read More

How Hard Should the Turing Test Be?

by Austin Brown on July 29th, 02014

It seems clear that computers are becoming more intelligent, but in the face of this fact, our definition of intelligence itself seems increasingly blurry. The University of Reading recently made an announcement exemplifying this trend: The 65 year-old iconic Turing Test was passed for the very first time by computer program Eugene Goostman during Turing…  Read More

Paul Sabin on the Gamble over Earth’s Future

by Charlotte Hajer on October 9th, 02013

In 1980, a bet was made between a Malthusian ecologist and a Cornucopian economist – between optimism and pessimism – about the fate of humanity and planet Earth. The wager concerned fluctuations in the market prices for several crude metals. If prices rose over the next decade, civilization must be facing scarcity and thus inevitable…  Read More

Long Bets Table at WorldFuture2013

by Andrew Warner on August 2nd, 02013

From July 19th- 21st in Chicago, the World Future Society hosted their annual conference, WorldFuture 2013. The conference had over 60 sessions, workshops, and special events over the course of two and a half days, including a keynote from former SALT speaker Nicholas Negroponte. Topics ranged from Artificial Intelligence and the future of education to…  Read More

The Long Now Foundation on Tumblr

by Mikl Em on July 19th, 02013

Geneva wheel prototype photo by Raphael Varieras We recently launched a Long Now Tumblr blog where you will find even more about Long Now and related topics. If you’re unfamiliar with Tumblr, you don’t need to join the service to read the blog, just follow the link. But if you are on Tumblr, please follow…  Read More

Long Bets table at WorldFuture 2013

by Andrew Warner on July 11th, 02013

From July 19th- 21st in Chicago, the World Future Society will be hosting their annual conference, WorldFuture 2013. The conference has over 60 sessions, workshops, and special events over the course of two and a half days, including a keynote from former SALT speaker Nicholas Negroponte. Topics range from Artificial Intelligence and the future of…  Read More

The Imagined Future of 02013

by Charlotte Hajer on May 6th, 02013

Long Now’s Long Bets project is founded on the premise that we can improve our long-term thinking by holding ourselves accountable for the predictions we make about the future. By revisiting our forecasts as time goes by, we reveal the subtle mechanics of society’s evolution, and teach ourselves something about what kinds of visions might…  Read More

Buffett pulls ahead in wager against hedge funds

by Austin Brown on February 13th, 02013

In 02008, Warren Buffet placed a Long Bet that will take until 02017 to resolve. He predicted that for those ten years, “the S & P 500 will outperform a portfolio of funds of hedge funds, when performance is measured on a basis net of fees, costs and expenses.” Below is a summary of how things went…  Read More

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