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Blog Archive for the ‘Long Bets’ Category

Buffet’s Big Bet Update – Year 1

by Austin Brown on November 24th, 02009

It took a while to get all the numbers crunched, but the first year’s results from the Long Bet with the highest prize are in.  Over a year ago Warren Buffet challenged the managers of several funds-of-funds to outperform the S&P 500 over a 10 year period.  A one million dollar charitable donation is on…  Read More

The computer of 02010

by Alexander Rose - Twitter: @zander on July 24th, 02009

  Found while reading Charles Stross’ web diary is this wonderful link from 02000 Forbes Magazine on where computers would be in ten years… now just a few months away.  Some gems: Within 10 years, in fact, silicon will fall to the computer scientist’s triple curse: “It’s bulky, it’s slow, and it runs too hot.”…  Read More

Predicting 02009 in retrospect

by Alexander Rose - Twitter: @zander on January 2nd, 02009

Stewart Brand sent me this excellent piece by past Seminar Speaker, historian and author, Niall Furguson.  It is a retrospective of 02009, bravely published a year in advance.  An excerpt from the intro: “It was the year when people finally gave up trying to predict the year ahead. It was the year when every forecast…  Read More

Chickens come home to roost in 02008

by Alexander Rose - Twitter: @zander on December 9th, 02008

 The Foreign Policy journal has an excellent top ten list for 02008.  Top ten worst predictions.  This type of accountability is exactly why we started Long Bets. Excerpts below: “[A]nyone who says we’re in a recession, or heading into one—especially the worst one since the Great Depression—is making up his own private definition of ‘recession.’”…  Read More

Long Bets timeline

by Alexander Rose - Twitter: @zander on December 2nd, 02008

I met Derek Dukes the other night the founder of Dipity, the maker of the coolest web based timeline software I have seen yet.  You can manually generate timelines, or set up a timeline that is auto-generated out of RSS feeds, Twitters, Facebook updates, etc.  He set up a timeline for Long Bets in about…  Read More

219 Years of bets at Cambridge

by Alexander Rose - Twitter: @zander on October 7th, 02008

The Cambridge Betting Books, From England 08 While visiting the UK last week my wife and I were invited to high table dinner at Cambridge’s Caius College by a friend who is now a fellow there.  Touring the grounds was stunning, that all of those gorgeous buildings and ancient libraries could be there for you…  Read More

HAL, what’s a dubject?

by Alexander Rose - Twitter: @zander on October 5th, 02008

  Next Sunday October 12th, six different programs will attempt to pass the computer intelligence Turing test (according to the guardian.co.uk).  This also marks a serious attempt to decide the $20,000 Long Bet between Ray Kurzweil and Mitch Kapor, as well as win the $100,000 Loebner Prize in Artificial Intelligence.  In the tests, a human…  Read More

As SLow aS Possible

by Stuart Candy on October 2nd, 02008

Photo: John Cage Organ Foundation, Halberstadt, Germany via ABC News Online Fair warning for long-term music lovers: the world’s slowest concert, a 639-year organ piece by American avant-garde composer John Cage (01912-01992), will next change notes in just over a month’s time, on 5 November 02008. St Burchardi church, in the eastern German city of…  Read More

The Wisdom of Public Prediction Markets

by Kevin Kelly on September 4th, 02008

Prediction markets continue to proliferate. These communities use money to bet on outcomes in the future. If a prediction comes true, the winners reap the money from the losing betters. The price of a bet, or share, fluctuates over time — and thus can be used as a signal for the community’s opinion. In theory…  Read More

The end is nigh

by Alexander Rose - Twitter: @zander on September 4th, 02008

On Wednesday morning September 10th, the very excited and optimistic scientists turn on the Large Hadron Collider outside Geneva… We have a Long Bet that states “Large Hadron Collider will destroy Earth.” And you can watch the video above of what that looks like. The “First Beam” will occur at 9:30am at CERN, which I…  Read More