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Blog Archive for the ‘Futures’ Category

Richard Feynman quote

by Alexander Rose - Twitter: @zander on May 17th, 02007

I came across this very Long Now quote recently. It is pretty amazing to see this level of optimism from someone who worked on the Manhatten Project.

“We are at the very beginning of time for the human race. It is not unreasonable that we grapple with problems. But there are tens of thousands of. . .   Read More

Paleo-Future

by Kevin Kelly on May 11th, 02007

The subtitle of this very nifty weblog says it all: A look into the future that never was.

Paleo-Future is a steady stream of news about the future that (mostly) did not come true. By rummaging through the archives and dust bins of yesteryear’s futurists, the editors of this blog uncover past predictions. . .   Read More

100-Year Old Predictions from 1900

by Kevin Kelly on April 18th, 02007

The Ladies Home Journal of December 1900 ran a very brave list of predictions by one John Elfreth Watkins. Some are quite accurate, some wrong, and many are plain odd. Although grouped into 25 predictions, each one is a collection of not entirely related ideas. Some samples:

Prediction #1: There will probably be from 350. . .   Read More

The End of a 1,400-Year-Old Business

by Kevin Kelly on April 18th, 02007

There’s a very short but very telling story in Business Week on the demise of the longest-living company, based in Japan. After 14 centuries (!), this Buddhist temple construction company is going of out business. A few quotes:

The world’s oldest continuously operating family business ended its impressive run last year. Japanese temple. . .   Read More

The Mormon Vaults

by Alexander Rose - Twitter: @zander on April 9th, 02007

On January 2nd of 02007 Stewart Brand and I stepped into the cool deep past and unknown future of who begat who.

(picture: the granite genealogical vaults)

Since I began working on the 10,000 Year Clock project, and associated Library projects here at Long Now almost a decade ago, I have heard cryptic references. . .   Read More

Three Predictions

by Alexander Rose - Twitter: @zander on February 23rd, 02007

It’s a bit rare that we see such clear and succinct predictions. These three by Ari Emanuel were published at the Huffington Post and were forwarded to me by Paul Saffo:

I have three predictions to make this morning: 1) John McCain will not be the Republican Party’s nominee. 2) Hillary Clinton will. . .   Read More

Vernor Vinge – What if the Singularity Does NOT happen?

by Stewart Brand on February 16th, 02007

Non-Singularity scenarios

Vinge began by declaring that he still believes that a Singularity event in the next few decades is the most likely outcome— meaning that self-accelerating technologies will speed up to the point of so profound a transformation that the other side of it is unknowable. And this transformation will be driven. . .   Read More

Philip Tetlock – Ignore confident forecasters

by Stewart Brand on January 27th, 02007

Ignore confident forecasters

“What is it about politics that makes people so dumb?” From his perspective as a pyschology researcher, Philip Tetlock watched political advisors on the left and the right make bizarre rationalizations about their wrong predictions at the time of the rise of Gorbachev in the 1980s and the eventual collapse of the. . .   Read More

Phillip Rosedale – ‘Second Life:’ What Do We Learn If We Digitize EVERYTHING?

by Simone Davalos on November 30th, 02006

2nd Life takes off

What is real life coming to owe digital life?

After a couple years in the flat part of exponential growth, the steep part is now arriving for the massive multi-player online world construction kit called “Second Life.” With 1.7 million accounts, membership in “Second Life” is growing by 20. . .   Read More

Sam Harris – “The View From The End Of The World”

by Stewart Brand on December 12th, 02005

On necessary heresy

With gentle demeanor and tight argument, Sam Harris carried an overflow audience into the core of one of the crucial issues of our time: What makes some religions lethal? How do they employ aggressive irrationality to justify threatening and controlling non-believers as well as believers? What should be our response?

Harris. . .   Read More