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Blog Archive for the ‘Futures’ Category

House of the Future, for real this time

by Alexander Rose - Twitter: @zander on February 13th, 02008

Wired and AP is reporting that Disney’s new “house of the future” will be (re)-opening this May. The original one (prominently sponsored by Monsanto Plastics) that opened in 01954 was closed only a decade later, (see the excellent video above and Part 2 here).

Apparently the new one sponsored by Microsoft, HP, and. . .   Read More

Timeline of Timelines

by Kevin Kelly on February 11th, 02008

A very meta service. Cabinet magazine, a hip paper-based journal of unusual ideas, published a chronology of calendars and timelines in history a few years ago. They updated the list for the web. It’s quite comprehensive, and provides in one chronological sequence the major inventions in the art of chronologies. But it could. . .   Read More

Nassim Nicholas Taleb, “The Future Has Always Been Crazier Than We Thought”

by Stewart Brand on February 7th, 02008

Dispatches from Extremistan

A “black swan,” Taleb explained, is an event which is 1) Hard to predict; 2) Highly consequential; 3) Wrongly retro-predicted. We pretend we know why the big event happened, and so entrench our inability to deal with the next world-changing improbable event.

Examples: Viagra, 9/11, Harry Potter, First World. . .   Read More

Yesterday’s Tomorrow

by Kevin Kelly on February 5th, 02008

While contemporary visions of the future aren’t new, past visions of the future are. Indeed “yesterday’s tomorrows” is a new genre with a growing body of material, including several books, such as “Yesterday’s Tomorrows: Past Visions of the American Future”.

The heydays of science fiction are 50 years old. That’s a. . .   Read More

The Long View abides

by Stuart Candy on February 1st, 02008

Long Now board member Peter Schwartz‘s The Art of the Long View has topped the list of the most important futures works ever, in a worldwide vote by members of the Association of Professional Futurists (APF). Congratulations, Peter! The Art of the Long View: Planning for the Future in an Uncertain World was first published […]


by Kevin Kelly on January 28th, 02008

One of most needed (but still absent) instruments for long-term thinking is a predictions archive. Stewart Brand and I fist conceived of the Long Bets project as a supplementary agency that would work best as part of a great prediction registry. The registry would include any and all predictions about the future. The ideal. . .   Read More

Election Prediction Markets

by Kevin Kelly on January 23rd, 02008

The Iowa Electronic Markets (IEM) trades real money in bets on future cultural events. Prediction markets sell contracts for an easily decidable future event (someone wins an election, a commodity hits a certain price, a movie sells X number of tickets). If that contract comes true, the different between what the price of the contract. . .   Read More

The Future of Futurology

by Alexander Rose - Twitter: @zander on December 31st, 02007

The Economist has a nice piece on the future of forcasting. Good reading for the upcoming seminar with Paul Saffo and later with Nassim Taleb. The article does a good job pointing out the value of certain types of short-termism: The next rule is: think short-term. An American practitioner, Faith Popcorn, showed the way with […]

We are those mutants.

by Austin Brown on December 10th, 02007

The Human Exemptionalism (or sometimes ‘Exceptionalism’) Paradigm is the idea that humans are somehow separate from nature or that we have transcended it in some way through spirituality, technology or consciousness. It is a paradigm that is shared between many of the religious ideologies of the world as well as many devotees of science and. . .   Read More

The 1000 year conversation…

by Alexander Rose - Twitter: @zander on December 10th, 02007

Seth Shostak from SETI published this piece yesterday on the time related difficulties in finding life outside the solar system (and holding a conversation with it). He even through in a nice mention of Long Now:
“There’s a similar argument to be made for communication. We seldom initiate information interchange that takes longer than. . .   Read More