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Blog Archive for the ‘Futures’ Category

Three Predictions

by Alexander Rose - Twitter: @zander on February 23rd, 02007

It’s a bit rare that we see such clear and succinct predictions. These three by Ari Emanuel were published at the Huffington Post and were forwarded to me by Paul Saffo:

I have three predictions to make this morning: 1) John McCain will not be the Republican Party’s nominee. 2) Hillary Clinton will. . .   Read More

Vernor Vinge – What if the Singularity Does NOT happen?

by Stewart Brand on February 16th, 02007

Non-Singularity scenarios

Vinge began by declaring that he still believes that a Singularity event in the next few decades is the most likely outcome— meaning that self-accelerating technologies will speed up to the point of so profound a transformation that the other side of it is unknowable. And this transformation will be driven. . .   Read More

Philip Tetlock – Ignore confident forecasters

by Stewart Brand on January 27th, 02007

Ignore confident forecasters

“What is it about politics that makes people so dumb?” From his perspective as a pyschology researcher, Philip Tetlock watched political advisors on the left and the right make bizarre rationalizations about their wrong predictions at the time of the rise of Gorbachev in the 1980s and the eventual collapse of the. . .   Read More

Phillip Rosedale – ‘Second Life:’ What Do We Learn If We Digitize EVERYTHING?

by Simone Davalos on November 30th, 02006

2nd Life takes off

What is real life coming to owe digital life?

After a couple years in the flat part of exponential growth, the steep part is now arriving for the massive multi-player online world construction kit called “Second Life.” With 1.7 million accounts, membership in “Second Life” is growing by 20. . .   Read More

Sam Harris – “The View From The End Of The World”

by Stewart Brand on December 12th, 02005

On necessary heresy

With gentle demeanor and tight argument, Sam Harris carried an overflow audience into the core of one of the crucial issues of our time: What makes some religions lethal? How do they employ aggressive irrationality to justify threatening and controlling non-believers as well as believers? What should be our response?

Harris. . .   Read More

Esther, Freeman, and George Dyson – “The Difficulty In Looking Far Ahead”

by Simone Davalos on October 5th, 02005

Finessing the future

Instead of one podium there were four chairs on the stage of Wednesday’s seminar. In three seats, three Dysons: Esther, George and Freeman. They were appearing together on stage for the first time. The fourth held Stewart Brand who led the three through an evening of queries. The questions came from. . .   Read More

Ray Kurzweil – “Kurzweil’s Law”

by Stewart Brand on September 26th, 02005

Escape velocity

Attempts to think long term, Ray Kurzweil began, keep making the mistake of imagining that the pace of the future is like the pace of the past. Pondering the next ten years, we usually begin by studying the last ten years. He recommends studying the last twenty year for clues about the rate. . .   Read More

Will Jarvis – “Time Capsule Behavior”

by Stewart Brand on May 16th, 02005

Time capsule secrets

High school classes and world’s fairs do it. Universities and builders and companies and municipalities do it. They bury little hoards of things they think people in the future will treasure— the future being ten years or ten thousand or never (most time capsules are immediately forgotten). Something strange, deep, and. . .   Read More

Stewart Brand – “Cities And Time”

by Simone Davalos on April 11th, 02005

A world made of cities

Cities are the human organizations with the greatest longevity but also the fastest rate of change. Just now the world is going massively and unstoppably urban (governments everywhere are trying to stop it, with zero success). In a globalized world, city states are re-emerging as a dominant economic player. . .   Read More

Ken Dychtwald – The Consequences Of Human Life Extension”

by Stewart Brand on December 6th, 02004

What long life means

Ken Dychtwald gave a terrific talk Friday evening to a standing-room audience on “The Consequences of Human Life Extension.”

The growing—and soon overwhelming—prevalence of the old in developed nations is leading to a “new old.” Ken described meeting a bright-eyed apparent 70-year-old who talked about. . .   Read More